The Long and Complicated Road to Israel's So-Called 'Total Victory'
There is still hope, plenty of it, but it starts with being honest and accepting reality for what it is, not as we wish it to be.
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This is not an essay about politics.
It is an essay about reality.
And the reality for Israel is, unfortunately, far different than what many of us have been hoping for.
In the immediate aftermath of October 7th, and still to this day, many of us wanted what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been calling “total victory” over Hamas. It would be weird to not want this for Israel and Israelis — unless you have a fetish for antisemitic terrorist organizations.
But life is not black and white, geopolitics even less, and the “international community” a cluster-f*ck of mostly hypocritical, corrupted professional liars. Some call that a cynical view of the world; I call it the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.
Israel cannot win this war in the “happy ending” sense, because Israel has not been allowed to definitively win wars for quite some time now — and Israel’s enemies know this. It does not matter that Israel has one of the world’s top-five strongest armies and nuclear weapons, because the wars that Israel has fought against Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah are not merely military conflicts.
These wars transcend the literal battlefields and include a convoluted combination of economics and geopolitics, as well as domestic politics in countries like the U.S. and United Kingdom, and even those such as Saudi Arabia and South Africa.
People keep comparing Israel to the World War II-era Allied Forces and Hamas to the Nazis, but the world is far different now than it was during and immediately after the Second World War. Globalization and multinational capitalism, among other heightened trends, are far more consequential than “the good guys” versus “the bad guys” and “right” versus “wrong.”
Populism, while nothing new, also plays a part in Israel’s wars — and I am not just talking about in Israel or in Gaza. Politicians across the world, namely Joe Biden and his Democrats, have leveraged this war for their own domestic sociopolitical agendas.
In America, Biden’s Democrats spent the first few days after October 7th coveting Israel (really, Jewish American voters and political donors) before quickly moving to a blatantly anti-Israel communications strategy that has made Jews in America less safe and Israel unjustifiably isolated.
Why? Because the Democrats are effectively becoming America’s party for “People of Color,” and Palestinians are “People of Color” (whereas Israelis are “White”) in the eyes of many Democrats. Anyone with an actual working brain knows how ridiculous it is to judge people by the color of their skin, no less that most Israelis are not even “White.” But that is besides the point.
The more pressing issue is, Israel will not be allowed to win this war (again), which is partly Israel’s fault for giving the United States so much leverage over it, and for not realizing how wars are won these days (not just with a formidable military, but with international leverage).
Make no mistake: I am all for Israel going after Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah wherever they hide in the world. But it does not matter what I and you and others want. What matters is who has what leverage and how they are applying it; right now, Qatar and Iran have far more leverage than Israel, vis a vis “the West” — and they are playing it incredibly well. Israel not so much.
Thus, the “right” thing for Israel to do is to agree to end this war in exchange for the release of every single hostage, immediately. I guess we can call it a “consolation prize.” This means swift and complete withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, and no drip-drop hostage release like we saw in November. All at once for all parties involved.
Then, we need elections. Again this is not a political statement. The majority of people in Israel from the Left, Right, and Center do not trust the current government — and why should we? The intelligence and military failure of October 7th was unprecedented in Israeli history and everyone in power currently should be held responsible (not to be confused with blame, for responsibility and blame are two different things).
I am a Right-wing voter in Israel (primarily for security reasons) but I also believe in democracy, so whoever wins this new election I will support, including Netanyahu. I will not vote for Netanyahu but I can live with the results of democracy, for it is the best way, even if you do not love the results every time.
Once we have a new elected government, Israel should create a three-to-10-year strategy whereby we go into full “cold war” mode against Iran, Qatar, and their proxies. No individual and and no country is off limits, including those we have peace with (e.g. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE).
Indeed, since World War II, Israel has probably assassinated more people than any other country in the West, according to Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman (who authored a book on the topic).1
If you are wondering about Israel pursuing assassinations and destroying terrorist infrastructure in countries that are friendly to the Jewish state, you can trust the Mossad to get creative, for they always have.
Poisoned toothpaste that takes a month to end its target’s life, armed drones, exploding mobile phones, spare tires with remote-controlled bombs, assassinating enemy scientists, and discovering the secret lovers of Muslim clerics have been among the methods used by the Israeli security establishment.
And still, this is only part of Israel’s strategic three-to-10-year plan. Another aspect includes ending the the corrupted and monopolistic relationship that the U.S. forged with Israel, most recently in a 10-year military aid agreement that then-President Barack Obama signed in 2016 and went into effect two years later.
After the agreement expires circa 2028, it must not be renewed under any circumstances, for it has proven to be a disastrous point of American leverage against Israel, and it has significantly downgraded Israeli military technology, manufacturing, and the amount of local jobs in the sector.
There is a saying in Hebrew: hazol oleh beh’yoker, meaning, “Something cheap costs a lot of money.” In this context, the $3 billion in annual military aid that Israel receives from the U.S. is not a gift; it is golden handcuffs, the effects of which we have seen on full display since October 7th.
I am by no means a military expert, but it seems to me that Israel must develop military independence if the Jewish state and the Jewish People are truly to control our fate. It also seems to me that, after this independence is achieved (at least to a certain extent, far greater than what it is today), more countries will respect Israel and give it more leeway in future wars.
Like the Arabs with their natural resources and one-sixth of the world’s wealth, Israel has a lot to offer to the “international community.” Achieving true independence will allow the Jewish state to develop more leverage and provide more support to different countries that have different needs at different points in time.
There is also much to build on with the Abraham Accords. There are several other countries in the Middle East and North Africa that share Israel’s interests in defanging Iran, Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood, and their proxies’ influence in the region.
I have no doubt that the Saudis, Jordanians, the Egyptians, the Moroccans, the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, and others will be happy to continue working with Israel, covertly of course, to ensure the Middle East does not become an Islamist playground. Israel has the brains and creativity, these other countries the funds, and together that can make for a splendid combination.
As for now, we have to accept that Israel has lost this battle (but not the greater war, for it will still rage in the background regardless of how this current Israel-Hamas saga ends).
The more we remain in denial of this reality, the more we risk greater harm to the Jewish state and the Jewish People. The faster we accept this reality, the faster we can use our individual powers (i.e. our vote) to elect politicians who are geared toward different aspects of the strategies and tactics I detailed above, and of course others.
There is still hope, plenty of it, but it starts with being honest and accepting reality for what it is, not as we wish it to be.
Bergman, Ronen. “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations.” Random House, 2018.
A refreshing and thoughtful article!
I do agree on some parts: the US military aid program is beginning to cost Israel support among its natural allies, the America First movement. It's worth remembering that it was Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who requested the end of US economic assistance; removing those props to the state created the Startup Nation and removed a potential source of friction.
But the dependence on US military aid is not the reason Israel's military is hobbled. Israeli companies have moved some manufacture of low-value add components, like aerial bombs, to the US while retaining the high-value components like SPICE guidance kits that are attached to them. Other than manned aircraft, most IDF weapons are at least designed in Israel, from Tavor assault rifles to Merkava tanks, Eitan armored vehicles, SPIKE anti-tank missiles, Hermes drones, Oron airborne early warning aircraft and Ofek reconnaissance satellites.
Co-manufacture with US companies provides Israel with some leverage too as those companies lobby to keep the relationship alive. For example, Israel's Stunner interceptor (used in David's Sling) is also made under license by Raytheon and exported as the Patriot PAC-4.
Much arms trade is made not just for weapons but also to cement relationships; that's how at one point Qatar's 72 aircraft airforce had 24 Rafales (France), 24 Typhoons (UK) and 24 F16 (US). Three sets of engines, avionics, flight simulators but also 3 solid alliances.
" Israel has not been allowed to definitively win wars for quite some time now"
I would disagree: the last war Israel was not allowed to win definitively was the Yom Kippur War, when Kissinger explicitly prohibited the destruction of the surrounded Egyptian Third Army. He relied on assurances from Sadat that Egypt would pivot to the US and wanted to avoid embarrassing him.
Later wars were not definitively won due to Israeli errors. For example, the 1982 Lebanon War left Israel with a solid buffer zone in South Lebanon, abandoned unilaterally in complete chaos in 2000, without any real international pressure. In hindsight, wouldn't the cost and casualties of holding that buffer zone be preferable to Hezbollah on the northern border?
Likewise the 2006 Lebanon War was not won because Israel limited itself to rapid raids and did not attempt to reclaim the buffer zone until two days before the end of the war, when the IDF reached the Litani River.
Perhaps it was not possible but in the current war Israel might have been better served with a larger initial offensive, capturing all the main cities in Gaza simultaneously. Caution and timidity have been a hallmark of Netanyahu at war.
I would add that a tremendous backlash is building up in the US against the oppressed/woke/POC movement, not only from the 70% of voters that are white but also from Hispanics, like myself, who consider ourselves as Americans and not POC or minorities. Excellent articles by Ruy Texeira explain the changes:
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
I am now a registered Republican after being a Democrat and liberal all my life. I do not recognize, nor go along with the Democrats any longer. My parents must be rolling around in their crypts.I am hoping other American Jews will educate themselves about the dangers that have been secretly building up in America for about 30 years.