U.S. President Donald Trump promised the Iranian people that "help is on its way" — but the reality proved entirely different for reasons few people truly understand.
This is a serious, bracing piece, and I mean that as praise. You do something increasingly rare: you refuse to flatter the reader with comforting illusions. The essay cuts cleanly through the moral theater that so much commentary depends on and insists—correctly—that power, fear, leverage, and self-interest remain the primary drivers of state behavior. Your framing of realpolitik versus moral narrative is especially strong, and your treatment of international law as an instrument rather than a referee will resonate with anyone who has watched Israel judged by rules its adversaries openly mock. This isn’t cynicism for sport; it’s realism grounded in history, political theory, and lived experience.
The only caution I would add—more as a footnote than a rebuttal—is that the story may not yet be finished. As Andrew Fox recently argued, what appears publicly as American restraint may in fact be strategic delay: buying time to reposition and concentrate military assets that had been oddly dispersed, including to secondary theaters like the Caribbean. If that assessment is right, then Tehran—and much of the commentariat—may be mistaking patience for paralysis. Realpolitik cuts both ways. Sometimes the loudest moral explanations are cover not for inaction, but for preparation. In that sense, your core thesis still holds: what we’re told is rarely why things happen. But it also suggests that the next chapter may arrive suddenly, once the mechanics of power are fully in place.
The article is brilliant, as is your observation that we may just be looking at the passage of time for the continuation of "unfinished business".
Just look at the time period from taking out drug boats from Venezuela, to stationing Navy assets nearby, to a swift, calibrated capture of an international criminal.
I do pray that America does demonstrate its strength and helps the Iranian people remove the murderous Ali Khamenei.
I agree with your reply except that you may wish to reconsider calling the Caribbean a "secondary theater". China, Russia, Iran, and the other folks who wish to blunt U.S. influence are nibbling at our fringes like a reverse " Anaconda Plan" (U.S. Civil War strategy). I applaud Trump for finally saying "enough" in our own back yard.
There is no moral high ground anymore, it is an illusion. When we were ready as volunteers to aid the protestors everyone immediately threatened us and shut us down!
Please read the following...
My Friends...
The last 48 hours have been the most frustrating I have had in my life. Initially, I was attempting for put together a volunteer force to protect the nascent revolution in Iran. Defend the protestors, secure airfields to move materials into Iran (Medical and support). We were immediately shutdown by the State Department and Military. They weren't interested.
So we decided to do it independently, at least get medical supplies, equipment and support to the Iranian freedom fighters. Although we found donors even a cargo plane we could not get releases, visas for transshipping or permits to move. When we started crossing the line we were threatened with prison!
I ask people to write your congressmen; ask them to at least allow us to provide support for the Iranian protestors and revolutionaries. We endanger nothing but our own lives. If we want to risk out lives to support another countries fight for freedom so be it! The more noise you make the better the chance that our government will say hell with it let them go!
If you really care about freedom, the Iranian fight for freedom, make as much noise as you can. I don't need your money, I need your help!
This is truly one of the best publications on Substack. Your guest authors are consistently insightful and devoid of the dog whistle, audience captured virtue signaling that is so prevalent on social media. Keep bringing us these hard truths and keep up the good work.
Excellent article. ‘See the world as it is not as you would like it to be.’ The threat is now Islam. Millions of Jihadis have simply taken a plane ride to The West, and are having children to make us a minority in our own country. The West has woken. The day has come. Time to act on this. The time has now come.
I am afraid the author misses a major point. Trump told the Iranian people to keep protesting, that the US is on its way. He therefore put the power of the US behind the protests. And what happened? The US did nothing. Oh the Mullahs said they would stop the executions. That is because it behooved them to say that. Whether it is the truth is another question. If you believe what those nazis have to say, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I can sell you.
Truth is the Iranians are not ready for an all out war, their ballistic missile program is simply not back up to speed and they want their nuclear program to restart as well. So when they were given a temporary out, they took it.
So mass murderers said they would stop mass murdering. And the US said, "great golly Yes. We will take these Islamo-nazis at their word." That is not realpolitik that is spineless stupidity.
The realpolitik is that if Trump had just said we stand with the protestors and that we are going to be sanctioning and corralling the Iranian regime more rather than "we are on our way," the US would not look weak right now. That is what happened. His mouth makes us look ridiculous.
But more than that lets look at some other issues- Saudi would not let us use their airspace? So way are we selling them F35s? Why are we giving them anything at all if they are not a true ally. We dont need their oil. Europe needs their oil. Saudi actually needs us to protect their oil fields. So why are they giving the US orders?
Qatar- they said we couldn't use our airbase in Doha to attack Iran. Why is our airbase in Qatar? Why is CENTCOM there? If the Qataris can tell us whether we can use our own airbase then they can control US foreign policy and our right to defend ourselves. Maybe its time to move CENTCOM- that too is realpolitik.
Now Israel, the rocket barrage that would be coming her way if the US attacked was pretty much certain. They say that Bibi asked Trump to stop the attack because Israel was just not ready. Ok. That is why Barnea is in DC now. Trying to figure out how to protect Israel and at the same time strangle the Iranian regime. Truth is, and we all know this, that the Iranian regime will use their last gasp to try to destroy Israel no matter when their last gasp is. Better to do it before their ballistic missile program is in full swing and they restart their nuclear program. It will never be good. But the sooner the better when Iran is still weak militarily is still best.
And yes there are all kinds of warfare taking place continually that people don't think about. The least warfare like thing is actually boots on the ground. Most warfare is and has always been in the shadows. The shadow war has not stopped.
BTW this also isnt just about the middle east. When the US looks weak, as she does now, then China and Russia feel they have a free hand to nefarious their nefarious global actions. They see that the US will NOT keep its word to protect those they say they will protect. Putin now calculates the fall of NATO and Xi is eyeing Taiwan. The fall out right now is actually a more dangerous not a less dangerous world. Good luck to us. We are going to need it.
You’re right about Trump’s stupid statement (“help is on the way”) but I think wrong about why he stopped the attack. He stopped the attack because he realized (or more likely, someone far smarter told him) that the one thing almost guaranteed to save the Iranian regime is a foreign war/enemy. There are many ways we can help the Iranian people (and the regime fall) but bombing a regime willing to sacrifice its own society to stay in power (sound familiar - 👀 Hamas) is not one of them.
Yes, my issue is not that he stopped the attack. Its his stupid mouth. Whatever reason he stopped the attack I don't care and I am sure it had something to do with the fact that someone told him in the scheme of things it would help the regime. I am sure it had something to do with what Qatar, Saudi and even Israel may have said to him.
But being POTUS, what he says has consequences. And the biggest consequence is that I think he has emboldened Russia and China because he has shown the US to not follow through on what it says it will do.
We also know by now that Trump says things to mislead. We don’t really know if this was him running his stupid mouth or a deliberate statement he knew he wasn’t going to follow through on, or even more likely, something that will still happen when the time is right, like when there are enough US assets back in the ME to pull off a successful strike. But, I agree that his mouth and personal conduct are often an embarrassment.
I have no concrete knowledge. I have heard it said that taking an attack to the brink last week was in order to assess where and how Iran would defend itself.
Honestly, I heard that too. I think we are all trying to make sense out of what happened with many out there trying to put a positive spin on the situation where the US doesn't come out looking like a spineless dirtbag. I hope they and you are right and I am wrong.
As ugly as a war would be, with Trump in office, now is probably the best opportunity to rid the world of the cancerous regime, and allow the Persian people their freedom, which would change the face of the Middle East.
Islamist jihad cancer has to be stopped, and it would shock Qatar and Turkey.
Make no mistake .. Qatar is NOT a partner with western values.
Bottom line: NO SHARED VALUES MEANS NO WORLD PEACE. We here in America have freedoms and values that are not shared by the other major forces in the world ( i am excluding Israel here) and never will be. Preserving those freedoms and values will ALWAYS require a gentle balancing act in dealing with tbe evil parts of the world. I imagine Israel must think the same way. Maybe trump does attack Iranian leaders, maybe he doesn't. He should at a minimum think more before talking
Who says US values are that wonderful? Every country except Israel it seems, knows one cannot trust the US no matter what political power is in the WH. The US is known to break any and all agreements and treaties, desert allies and befriend enemies, and stab allies in the back at a whim. The US openly interferes with democratic country elections and then whines when it happens to it. When one looks in to the US from across the border, one sees divisiveness, and a country awash with hatred, guns, and fanatics.
Obviously not you. We need to be more like china ( concentration camps for uighers) or Iran ( hang gays from cranes) or Europe ( imprison free speech makers or bar jews from soccer games or be so magnanimous to jews as they have for 2000 plus years). And then theres russia ( ally to China and iran). At least you are honest about how you feel about america.
Honesty, respect, compassion, equality for all, free speech with limits that ensure no hate targets against specific groups of people, openness and transparency, trust , and commitment to the common good.
Again, I didn't ask you which values you like but which countries you think are better. And why you think so many people are nonetheless trying to come to the US.
Well said. Trump does not impress me as much of a thinker, unless scheming counts as thinking. He’s a reactor and appears to verbalize whatever emotional thought comes into his head. Appearances can be deceiving though, especially when most of what we see is what the media shows us. We know, especially now, just how much slant, propaganda, and lies they try to pass off as accurate news.
Calling Trump a reactor rather than thinker ignores Trump's novel recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and moving the United States embassy to Jerusalem to solidify this change in American policy. This was not a reaction but Trump at his critical thinking best, realizing this would not trigger massive Islamic world reaction or war, and contrary to the advice of his many so called experts in the State Department and CIA.
While the recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and moving the United States embassy to Jerusalem are welcomed changes, I think your assertion that they resulted from "Trump at his critical thinking best, realizing this would not trigger massive Islamic world reaction or war..." ignores the reality that Trump's moves in Israel have largely been driven by those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. Crediting Trump for his critical thinking skills is similar to calling him a Nobel laureate, because someone handed him the medal.
He should have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by the committee, not by Machado who also was clearly deserving of it. Certainly more deserving than Obama, who got the award for nothing. AS for those with "vested interests in Israel's survival" who influenced him, who and what are you talking about?
" ignores the reality that Trump's moves in Israel have largely been driven by those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. "
So Trump has no "critical thinking skills" in you estimation. Really?
He has been elected as the President of the most important country in the world twice. How did that happen?
He is a self made billionaire manytime over. How did that happen?
In regards to Israel, his actions are not his, but the suggestions and actions of "those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. "
So Nunya, please elnlighten us as to who chose all those surrounding him.? I mean they weren't there under Obama and they weren't there under Biden. You seriously can't figure out who selected these people "Surrounding him." They just suddenly appeared out of nowhere?
I think we know who lacks critical thinking skills and it isn't Trump.
He thinks like a businessman, hates waste and war and prefers to make deals to solve problems, and looks at balances of powers and interests. This is different from how politicians think, and of course, he is as subject to error as anyone, but look how he fixed the treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia- not who's right and who's wrong and history , but how can we settle this and get to a deal. He may be trying to finish the war in Ukraine because he doesn't want Russia bled white and bankrupt, because he needs them to counterbalance China, which is much more of a threat. He risks throwing Ukraine under the bus to get to a deal for that.
Look how Bush's taking out Iraq led to Iran becoming a threat to the whole region, because of removing the counterbalance.
Again, not speaking about morality or history, just keeping things balanced.
Fascinating to watch this approach but worried about the poor Iranians.
I would think smacking the mullahs would make peace in the Middle East and put Qatar and Turkey on notice, but what do I know.
This entire essay, though true, begs the question. Nobody thinks that Trump backed off because the Mullahs said they'd play nice. Of course the vile Quatar and Saudi regimes fear a free Iran aligned with Israel. The question is why did Trump listen to them? A free Iran is in the interests of Israel, the United States and the entire modern world. The regime was teetering, a once in a lifetime opportunity to change the chess pieces. And it was wasted. The essay does not explain why. It simply explains what most know, that international moves are not based on "law" or morality.
I beg to differ. Most are not aware of the layered dynamics of the situation so concisely and effectively laid out in this essay, and that's why it's an excellent article. If your question of why wasn't answered, it's only because no one knows what goes on behind closed doors, nor does anyone know the motivations, power plays, and bribes that take place behind the scenes.
Something isn't adding up. The moderate Arab States, including Saudi Arabia, have wanted Iran's leaders changed for a long time. Iran is the single most destabilizing country and with the current leadership in place, the desired New Middle East and peace and investments can not go forward. The moderate Arabs desperately need JOBS for their growing youthful population. The entire region needs the spiritual and economic revitalization that the New Mideast will provide and they have been preparing for this for a while and making internal changes (banning the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Jazeera, banning pro-Pali protests, banning the teaching of Jew hate, encouraging the peaceful, reformed Islamic interpretation, planning to sign the Abraham accords, and so on). They can't maintain the status quo without ending up with internal revolutions themselves. And they can't tolerate the Iranian regime rebuilding it's weapons. If they let this opportunity for real peace and prosperity and co-existence to pass buy, the Mideast will remain horrible, third-world status for at least another generation. I'm sticking with believing the take-down is coming soon; as soon as America and Israel feel the time is really right.
I think you're right, Dana. I'm hoping that the delay is born out of Trump's willingness to postpone acting in order to ensure total victory, as he did when bombing iran's nuclear sites.
Trump is currently repositioning American assets, ensuring Americans have left certain locations, Israel is resupplied/restocked and the area partners are either in lock-step or told to stand down.
I believe one giant concern the administration has is not plummeting Iran into a worse position by taking out the mullahs and plunging it into the kind of chaos that Iraq experienced the Sadam was removed.
I hope the CIA is on the ground, working assets and resources to help Iran mitigate the issues that come with destabilization.
While our hearts go out to those Iranians yearning to be free, this is not a situation where you simply act quickly and hope for the best.
Uncanny, Robert. You summed up my thoughts nearly exactly. I'll add that perhpas Bibi and Trump pulled the plug because, as Iran was scrambling to respond to what they thought was an imminent attack, intel on the ground exposed what Iran's plans were, and where missiles might be fired from, etc., and now Trump and Bibi have a clearer idea of what and where to strike first. Perhaps. But if too much time passes, Iran can reset THEIR plans. Either way, the take-down MUST happen, as you know.
Thought Ms. Berg’s logic was as weak as a wet tissue. Yes, decisions were not based on morality, support of democracy, etc. But much of MBS’s considerations depend on his need to survive his rivals in the House of Saud; AND, a new regime in Iran would strengthen the US, the moderate Arab states, weaken China & Russia, and get of a malignant tumor which needs excission. SO, notwithstanding the Elbridge Colby Iran apologists, the strike will come.
You are absolutely right about realpolitik and international law, but you do not explain why America has shown restraint when it can get rid of a noxious enemy and change the Middle East dynamic. It may be that Trump's statements are a smokescreen for action to follow. It may be that the people who advise him are as stupid as their predecessors when it comes to the Middle East. It may be that President Trump is taken in by the transactional arrangements with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which also lead him to tout a Gaza peace plan that is worthless. We shall see in the coming days and weeks. But if Iran survives the protests, Trump's credibility goes down the tubes. And Israel should upset the applecart by conquering Gaza, and then annexing Gaza, Judea and Samaria. The so-called Palestinians can suffer the fate of Jews in 1948 and of their Palestinian brethren In Kuwait after Saddam was repulsed.
Not one reference to the regime change fiascos in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. What would be the glue to hold Iran together? Nature abhors a vacuum. Lots of guns bullets and bombs up for grabs when Tehran falls. What’s the plan Stan? Recent history reflects a far greater death toll without “Day After” planning.
Reading this essay - and the lively debate in the comments - feels like I’m sitting in on a university course. It all gives an intelligent framework to what I’ve learned about the world (among other things) since 7/10/23 - which is that, on a global level, we are peeing into the wind with our idealism, that democracy is an honour system that only works when we all agree to follow the rules, and that if we don’t snap to attention and take the rose coloured glasses off when we look outside of our Western, cushy lives, we are in for a nasty surprise. Thank you for this thoroughly educational post.
Well stated . My only quibble is that while during our uni days debate was robust today there is little debate but lots of pressure to conform or stay silent. Only the most courageous students let it rip. And for my two cents the worst are the little sweeties who check their privilege and bend their knees. But they never seem to actually divest any of that privilege cause ,well, the good life is really pretty damn nice
Excellent article! One that truly understands reality instead of preaching wishful thinking.
International law, at this point, is largely meaningless. The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself.
The League of Nations/UN, the ICC, and other international law organizations have all become irrelevant. It would be far better to replace them with a new framework: a League of Western Democracies.
How can anyone think that "The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself." Have you not noticed that LAW is completely irrelevant to the most prominent leader in the WEST? The current US administration demonstrates DISREGARD and CONTEMPT for the laws that are spelled out in the country's own constitution, and has attacked and destroyed or is in the process of destroying as many of the agencies, systems, and departments who safeguard and ensure laws are adhered to--on a daily basis! Laws are irrelevant when those who use them to exploit the system for power, wealth, and domination of their own citizens and other countries, and that is what the leading administration in the west is doing, and they are just getting started, unfortunately.
That is exactly why we need the rule of law in the West (and forget about enforcing it on the rest of the world—the West can no longer, and should no longer, try to impose it abroad). Its first task is to preserve it at home. Isn't it?
The West is under extreme pressure from outside. If it fails to regroup and strengthen itself, fear and anarchy will replace law and order.
Every time a “strong hand” appears on the political scene, it is because real problems were ignored for too long. Solve the causes, and you preserve democracy. Deny and ignore the problems, and you guarantee that the “strong hand” will come.
Trump is trying to regroup the West, but he does so believing that force is the only option left. The New Western Doctrine does not ignore the problems. Instead, it seeks to solve them by placing democracy back at the center...
This is a serious, bracing piece, and I mean that as praise. You do something increasingly rare: you refuse to flatter the reader with comforting illusions. The essay cuts cleanly through the moral theater that so much commentary depends on and insists—correctly—that power, fear, leverage, and self-interest remain the primary drivers of state behavior. Your framing of realpolitik versus moral narrative is especially strong, and your treatment of international law as an instrument rather than a referee will resonate with anyone who has watched Israel judged by rules its adversaries openly mock. This isn’t cynicism for sport; it’s realism grounded in history, political theory, and lived experience.
The only caution I would add—more as a footnote than a rebuttal—is that the story may not yet be finished. As Andrew Fox recently argued, what appears publicly as American restraint may in fact be strategic delay: buying time to reposition and concentrate military assets that had been oddly dispersed, including to secondary theaters like the Caribbean. If that assessment is right, then Tehran—and much of the commentariat—may be mistaking patience for paralysis. Realpolitik cuts both ways. Sometimes the loudest moral explanations are cover not for inaction, but for preparation. In that sense, your core thesis still holds: what we’re told is rarely why things happen. But it also suggests that the next chapter may arrive suddenly, once the mechanics of power are fully in place.
The article is brilliant, as is your observation that we may just be looking at the passage of time for the continuation of "unfinished business".
Just look at the time period from taking out drug boats from Venezuela, to stationing Navy assets nearby, to a swift, calibrated capture of an international criminal.
I do pray that America does demonstrate its strength and helps the Iranian people remove the murderous Ali Khamenei.
I agree with your reply except that you may wish to reconsider calling the Caribbean a "secondary theater". China, Russia, Iran, and the other folks who wish to blunt U.S. influence are nibbling at our fringes like a reverse " Anaconda Plan" (U.S. Civil War strategy). I applaud Trump for finally saying "enough" in our own back yard.
I don't think this is true but if it is I will be grateful and gladly and thankfully eat crow.
There is no moral high ground anymore, it is an illusion. When we were ready as volunteers to aid the protestors everyone immediately threatened us and shut us down!
Please read the following...
My Friends...
The last 48 hours have been the most frustrating I have had in my life. Initially, I was attempting for put together a volunteer force to protect the nascent revolution in Iran. Defend the protestors, secure airfields to move materials into Iran (Medical and support). We were immediately shutdown by the State Department and Military. They weren't interested.
So we decided to do it independently, at least get medical supplies, equipment and support to the Iranian freedom fighters. Although we found donors even a cargo plane we could not get releases, visas for transshipping or permits to move. When we started crossing the line we were threatened with prison!
I ask people to write your congressmen; ask them to at least allow us to provide support for the Iranian protestors and revolutionaries. We endanger nothing but our own lives. If we want to risk out lives to support another countries fight for freedom so be it! The more noise you make the better the chance that our government will say hell with it let them go!
If you really care about freedom, the Iranian fight for freedom, make as much noise as you can. I don't need your money, I need your help!
Iran will be free!
Sword of God!
This is truly one of the best publications on Substack. Your guest authors are consistently insightful and devoid of the dog whistle, audience captured virtue signaling that is so prevalent on social media. Keep bringing us these hard truths and keep up the good work.
Excellent article. ‘See the world as it is not as you would like it to be.’ The threat is now Islam. Millions of Jihadis have simply taken a plane ride to The West, and are having children to make us a minority in our own country. The West has woken. The day has come. Time to act on this. The time has now come.
Islam is a cancer. But you all know that already.
I am afraid the author misses a major point. Trump told the Iranian people to keep protesting, that the US is on its way. He therefore put the power of the US behind the protests. And what happened? The US did nothing. Oh the Mullahs said they would stop the executions. That is because it behooved them to say that. Whether it is the truth is another question. If you believe what those nazis have to say, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I can sell you.
Truth is the Iranians are not ready for an all out war, their ballistic missile program is simply not back up to speed and they want their nuclear program to restart as well. So when they were given a temporary out, they took it.
So mass murderers said they would stop mass murdering. And the US said, "great golly Yes. We will take these Islamo-nazis at their word." That is not realpolitik that is spineless stupidity.
The realpolitik is that if Trump had just said we stand with the protestors and that we are going to be sanctioning and corralling the Iranian regime more rather than "we are on our way," the US would not look weak right now. That is what happened. His mouth makes us look ridiculous.
But more than that lets look at some other issues- Saudi would not let us use their airspace? So way are we selling them F35s? Why are we giving them anything at all if they are not a true ally. We dont need their oil. Europe needs their oil. Saudi actually needs us to protect their oil fields. So why are they giving the US orders?
Qatar- they said we couldn't use our airbase in Doha to attack Iran. Why is our airbase in Qatar? Why is CENTCOM there? If the Qataris can tell us whether we can use our own airbase then they can control US foreign policy and our right to defend ourselves. Maybe its time to move CENTCOM- that too is realpolitik.
Now Israel, the rocket barrage that would be coming her way if the US attacked was pretty much certain. They say that Bibi asked Trump to stop the attack because Israel was just not ready. Ok. That is why Barnea is in DC now. Trying to figure out how to protect Israel and at the same time strangle the Iranian regime. Truth is, and we all know this, that the Iranian regime will use their last gasp to try to destroy Israel no matter when their last gasp is. Better to do it before their ballistic missile program is in full swing and they restart their nuclear program. It will never be good. But the sooner the better when Iran is still weak militarily is still best.
And yes there are all kinds of warfare taking place continually that people don't think about. The least warfare like thing is actually boots on the ground. Most warfare is and has always been in the shadows. The shadow war has not stopped.
BTW this also isnt just about the middle east. When the US looks weak, as she does now, then China and Russia feel they have a free hand to nefarious their nefarious global actions. They see that the US will NOT keep its word to protect those they say they will protect. Putin now calculates the fall of NATO and Xi is eyeing Taiwan. The fall out right now is actually a more dangerous not a less dangerous world. Good luck to us. We are going to need it.
You’re right about Trump’s stupid statement (“help is on the way”) but I think wrong about why he stopped the attack. He stopped the attack because he realized (or more likely, someone far smarter told him) that the one thing almost guaranteed to save the Iranian regime is a foreign war/enemy. There are many ways we can help the Iranian people (and the regime fall) but bombing a regime willing to sacrifice its own society to stay in power (sound familiar - 👀 Hamas) is not one of them.
Yes, my issue is not that he stopped the attack. Its his stupid mouth. Whatever reason he stopped the attack I don't care and I am sure it had something to do with the fact that someone told him in the scheme of things it would help the regime. I am sure it had something to do with what Qatar, Saudi and even Israel may have said to him.
But being POTUS, what he says has consequences. And the biggest consequence is that I think he has emboldened Russia and China because he has shown the US to not follow through on what it says it will do.
We also know by now that Trump says things to mislead. We don’t really know if this was him running his stupid mouth or a deliberate statement he knew he wasn’t going to follow through on, or even more likely, something that will still happen when the time is right, like when there are enough US assets back in the ME to pull off a successful strike. But, I agree that his mouth and personal conduct are often an embarrassment.
I have no concrete knowledge. I have heard it said that taking an attack to the brink last week was in order to assess where and how Iran would defend itself.
Honestly, I heard that too. I think we are all trying to make sense out of what happened with many out there trying to put a positive spin on the situation where the US doesn't come out looking like a spineless dirtbag. I hope they and you are right and I am wrong.
As ugly as a war would be, with Trump in office, now is probably the best opportunity to rid the world of the cancerous regime, and allow the Persian people their freedom, which would change the face of the Middle East.
Islamist jihad cancer has to be stopped, and it would shock Qatar and Turkey.
Make no mistake .. Qatar is NOT a partner with western values.
Agreed
No the one thing likely to save the regime is the knowledge that they can slaughter the uprising with impunity which they are doing.
That’s true. The question is what can foreigners do?
Bottom line: NO SHARED VALUES MEANS NO WORLD PEACE. We here in America have freedoms and values that are not shared by the other major forces in the world ( i am excluding Israel here) and never will be. Preserving those freedoms and values will ALWAYS require a gentle balancing act in dealing with tbe evil parts of the world. I imagine Israel must think the same way. Maybe trump does attack Iranian leaders, maybe he doesn't. He should at a minimum think more before talking
Who says US values are that wonderful? Every country except Israel it seems, knows one cannot trust the US no matter what political power is in the WH. The US is known to break any and all agreements and treaties, desert allies and befriend enemies, and stab allies in the back at a whim. The US openly interferes with democratic country elections and then whines when it happens to it. When one looks in to the US from across the border, one sees divisiveness, and a country awash with hatred, guns, and fanatics.
Obviously not you. We need to be more like china ( concentration camps for uighers) or Iran ( hang gays from cranes) or Europe ( imprison free speech makers or bar jews from soccer games or be so magnanimous to jews as they have for 2000 plus years). And then theres russia ( ally to China and iran). At least you are honest about how you feel about america.
Whose values do you prefer?
Dumb and false. And pathetic.
Ah, an American who cannot face the truth and reality of how the US is seen by other democratic countries.
Yet millions of people are trying to get in. 🤔
Which countries would you recommend?
Definitely not American values of violence, guns, divisiveness, open hatred to select groups,, bully behaviour, and absolute narcissism.
Didn't answer my question, and why are people dying to come in?
Honesty, respect, compassion, equality for all, free speech with limits that ensure no hate targets against specific groups of people, openness and transparency, trust , and commitment to the common good.
Again, I didn't ask you which values you like but which countries you think are better. And why you think so many people are nonetheless trying to come to the US.
My guns behave very nicely.
Well said. Trump does not impress me as much of a thinker, unless scheming counts as thinking. He’s a reactor and appears to verbalize whatever emotional thought comes into his head. Appearances can be deceiving though, especially when most of what we see is what the media shows us. We know, especially now, just how much slant, propaganda, and lies they try to pass off as accurate news.
Calling Trump a reactor rather than thinker ignores Trump's novel recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and moving the United States embassy to Jerusalem to solidify this change in American policy. This was not a reaction but Trump at his critical thinking best, realizing this would not trigger massive Islamic world reaction or war, and contrary to the advice of his many so called experts in the State Department and CIA.
While the recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and moving the United States embassy to Jerusalem are welcomed changes, I think your assertion that they resulted from "Trump at his critical thinking best, realizing this would not trigger massive Islamic world reaction or war..." ignores the reality that Trump's moves in Israel have largely been driven by those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. Crediting Trump for his critical thinking skills is similar to calling him a Nobel laureate, because someone handed him the medal.
He should have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by the committee, not by Machado who also was clearly deserving of it. Certainly more deserving than Obama, who got the award for nothing. AS for those with "vested interests in Israel's survival" who influenced him, who and what are you talking about?
" ignores the reality that Trump's moves in Israel have largely been driven by those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. "
So Trump has no "critical thinking skills" in you estimation. Really?
He has been elected as the President of the most important country in the world twice. How did that happen?
He is a self made billionaire manytime over. How did that happen?
In regards to Israel, his actions are not his, but the suggestions and actions of "those surrounding him who have experience and vested interests in Israel's survival. "
So Nunya, please elnlighten us as to who chose all those surrounding him.? I mean they weren't there under Obama and they weren't there under Biden. You seriously can't figure out who selected these people "Surrounding him." They just suddenly appeared out of nowhere?
I think we know who lacks critical thinking skills and it isn't Trump.
He thinks like a businessman, hates waste and war and prefers to make deals to solve problems, and looks at balances of powers and interests. This is different from how politicians think, and of course, he is as subject to error as anyone, but look how he fixed the treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia- not who's right and who's wrong and history , but how can we settle this and get to a deal. He may be trying to finish the war in Ukraine because he doesn't want Russia bled white and bankrupt, because he needs them to counterbalance China, which is much more of a threat. He risks throwing Ukraine under the bus to get to a deal for that.
Look how Bush's taking out Iraq led to Iran becoming a threat to the whole region, because of removing the counterbalance.
Again, not speaking about morality or history, just keeping things balanced.
Fascinating to watch this approach but worried about the poor Iranians.
I would think smacking the mullahs would make peace in the Middle East and put Qatar and Turkey on notice, but what do I know.
Critical thinking skills, sure! But unfortunately, they’re directed by malignant narcissism and lust for power and… Oh yeah, money.
"they’re directed by malignant narcissism and lust for power and… Oh yeah, money."
Thanks for acurately describing every Democrat in the United States.
This entire essay, though true, begs the question. Nobody thinks that Trump backed off because the Mullahs said they'd play nice. Of course the vile Quatar and Saudi regimes fear a free Iran aligned with Israel. The question is why did Trump listen to them? A free Iran is in the interests of Israel, the United States and the entire modern world. The regime was teetering, a once in a lifetime opportunity to change the chess pieces. And it was wasted. The essay does not explain why. It simply explains what most know, that international moves are not based on "law" or morality.
I beg to differ. Most are not aware of the layered dynamics of the situation so concisely and effectively laid out in this essay, and that's why it's an excellent article. If your question of why wasn't answered, it's only because no one knows what goes on behind closed doors, nor does anyone know the motivations, power plays, and bribes that take place behind the scenes.
I find the analysis to be cynical and to praise the immoral actions of the United States in this regard is unthinkably evil.
All the same I hope the Iranian regime falls, for the sake of its freedom loving people.
Something isn't adding up. The moderate Arab States, including Saudi Arabia, have wanted Iran's leaders changed for a long time. Iran is the single most destabilizing country and with the current leadership in place, the desired New Middle East and peace and investments can not go forward. The moderate Arabs desperately need JOBS for their growing youthful population. The entire region needs the spiritual and economic revitalization that the New Mideast will provide and they have been preparing for this for a while and making internal changes (banning the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Jazeera, banning pro-Pali protests, banning the teaching of Jew hate, encouraging the peaceful, reformed Islamic interpretation, planning to sign the Abraham accords, and so on). They can't maintain the status quo without ending up with internal revolutions themselves. And they can't tolerate the Iranian regime rebuilding it's weapons. If they let this opportunity for real peace and prosperity and co-existence to pass buy, the Mideast will remain horrible, third-world status for at least another generation. I'm sticking with believing the take-down is coming soon; as soon as America and Israel feel the time is really right.
I think you're right, Dana. I'm hoping that the delay is born out of Trump's willingness to postpone acting in order to ensure total victory, as he did when bombing iran's nuclear sites.
Trump is currently repositioning American assets, ensuring Americans have left certain locations, Israel is resupplied/restocked and the area partners are either in lock-step or told to stand down.
I believe one giant concern the administration has is not plummeting Iran into a worse position by taking out the mullahs and plunging it into the kind of chaos that Iraq experienced the Sadam was removed.
I hope the CIA is on the ground, working assets and resources to help Iran mitigate the issues that come with destabilization.
While our hearts go out to those Iranians yearning to be free, this is not a situation where you simply act quickly and hope for the best.
Uncanny, Robert. You summed up my thoughts nearly exactly. I'll add that perhpas Bibi and Trump pulled the plug because, as Iran was scrambling to respond to what they thought was an imminent attack, intel on the ground exposed what Iran's plans were, and where missiles might be fired from, etc., and now Trump and Bibi have a clearer idea of what and where to strike first. Perhaps. But if too much time passes, Iran can reset THEIR plans. Either way, the take-down MUST happen, as you know.
Agree, and some of the Arab countries want to change. Look at the UAE refusing to sponsor students to study in the UK so they don't get radicalised!
Thought Ms. Berg’s logic was as weak as a wet tissue. Yes, decisions were not based on morality, support of democracy, etc. But much of MBS’s considerations depend on his need to survive his rivals in the House of Saud; AND, a new regime in Iran would strengthen the US, the moderate Arab states, weaken China & Russia, and get of a malignant tumor which needs excission. SO, notwithstanding the Elbridge Colby Iran apologists, the strike will come.
I agree.
You are absolutely right about realpolitik and international law, but you do not explain why America has shown restraint when it can get rid of a noxious enemy and change the Middle East dynamic. It may be that Trump's statements are a smokescreen for action to follow. It may be that the people who advise him are as stupid as their predecessors when it comes to the Middle East. It may be that President Trump is taken in by the transactional arrangements with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which also lead him to tout a Gaza peace plan that is worthless. We shall see in the coming days and weeks. But if Iran survives the protests, Trump's credibility goes down the tubes. And Israel should upset the applecart by conquering Gaza, and then annexing Gaza, Judea and Samaria. The so-called Palestinians can suffer the fate of Jews in 1948 and of their Palestinian brethren In Kuwait after Saddam was repulsed.
Thank you for your article. I appreciate your article and its explanation of “how”things function.
But, the Jewish way of thinking always started with what is the right thing to do. This is where Judaism differs from other forms of living.
I’m not saying there are easy decisions here, nor ignoring realities and costs.
But, there is real politik. And there is doing what needs to be done to protect life and serve God.
No one is saying to be reckless but when something has to get done, we are called to go above and beyond.
When one acts to serve God the laws of nature fade away.
This is why the Jewish people experience miracles - by aligning with God.
In this vein, I am sharing below a message Chabad posted during the 12 Day War based on a talk by the Rebbe.
Even though you are small and few and they are big and many.
Even though your friends tell you it's not for you, the experts say it can't be done, and the Laws of Nature make it impossible.
But who are the laws of nature that you should obey them? You have to do what you have to do.
So you find a way, just some way that could make sense -if only to a madman.
And you leap into the fire
You discover that the laws of nature are a fraud.
The experts know nothing.
Your friends meant well, but they failed to see...
..that it's not a game of size or numbers.
And there's really only one rule.
You break out of your box, and your Creator takes the universe out of its box.
You go beyond your limits, and Heaven Unlimited provides the miracles.
Because, when it comes to doing what has to be done...
there really are no limitations at all.
-Based on the Rebbe's talk after the Entebbe Rescue, July 11, 1976
Bravo
Brilliant, precise and true in every word! And sobering! Thank you Vanessa Berg! ⭐
Thank you for your insight Vanessa! This is one of the best articles I've read in a long time!
Not one reference to the regime change fiascos in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. What would be the glue to hold Iran together? Nature abhors a vacuum. Lots of guns bullets and bombs up for grabs when Tehran falls. What’s the plan Stan? Recent history reflects a far greater death toll without “Day After” planning.
Reading this essay - and the lively debate in the comments - feels like I’m sitting in on a university course. It all gives an intelligent framework to what I’ve learned about the world (among other things) since 7/10/23 - which is that, on a global level, we are peeing into the wind with our idealism, that democracy is an honour system that only works when we all agree to follow the rules, and that if we don’t snap to attention and take the rose coloured glasses off when we look outside of our Western, cushy lives, we are in for a nasty surprise. Thank you for this thoroughly educational post.
Well stated . My only quibble is that while during our uni days debate was robust today there is little debate but lots of pressure to conform or stay silent. Only the most courageous students let it rip. And for my two cents the worst are the little sweeties who check their privilege and bend their knees. But they never seem to actually divest any of that privilege cause ,well, the good life is really pretty damn nice
Excellent article! One that truly understands reality instead of preaching wishful thinking.
International law, at this point, is largely meaningless. The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself.
The League of Nations/UN, the ICC, and other international law organizations have all become irrelevant. It would be far better to replace them with a new framework: a League of Western Democracies.
How can anyone think that "The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself." Have you not noticed that LAW is completely irrelevant to the most prominent leader in the WEST? The current US administration demonstrates DISREGARD and CONTEMPT for the laws that are spelled out in the country's own constitution, and has attacked and destroyed or is in the process of destroying as many of the agencies, systems, and departments who safeguard and ensure laws are adhered to--on a daily basis! Laws are irrelevant when those who use them to exploit the system for power, wealth, and domination of their own citizens and other countries, and that is what the leading administration in the west is doing, and they are just getting started, unfortunately.
That is exactly why we need the rule of law in the West (and forget about enforcing it on the rest of the world—the West can no longer, and should no longer, try to impose it abroad). Its first task is to preserve it at home. Isn't it?
The West is under extreme pressure from outside. If it fails to regroup and strengthen itself, fear and anarchy will replace law and order.
Every time a “strong hand” appears on the political scene, it is because real problems were ignored for too long. Solve the causes, and you preserve democracy. Deny and ignore the problems, and you guarantee that the “strong hand” will come.
Trump is trying to regroup the West, but he does so believing that force is the only option left. The New Western Doctrine does not ignore the problems. Instead, it seeks to solve them by placing democracy back at the center...
Excellent article.