U.S. President Donald Trump promised the Iranian people that "help is on its way" — but the reality proved entirely different for reasons few people truly understand.
This is truly one of the best publications on Substack. Your guest authors are consistently insightful and devoid of the dog whistle, audience captured virtue signaling that is so prevalent in social media. Keep bringing us these hard truths and keep up the good work.
This is a serious, bracing piece, and I mean that as praise. You do something increasingly rare: you refuse to flatter the reader with comforting illusions. The essay cuts cleanly through the moral theater that so much commentary depends on and insists—correctly—that power, fear, leverage, and self-interest remain the primary drivers of state behavior. Your framing of realpolitik versus moral narrative is especially strong, and your treatment of international law as an instrument rather than a referee will resonate with anyone who has watched Israel judged by rules its adversaries openly mock. This isn’t cynicism for sport; it’s realism grounded in history, political theory, and lived experience.
The only caution I would add—more as a footnote than a rebuttal—is that the story may not yet be finished. As Andrew Fox recently argued, what appears publicly as American restraint may in fact be strategic delay: buying time to reposition and concentrate military assets that had been oddly dispersed, including to secondary theaters like the Caribbean. If that assessment is right, then Tehran—and much of the commentariat—may be mistaking patience for paralysis. Realpolitik cuts both ways. Sometimes the loudest moral explanations are cover not for inaction, but for preparation. In that sense, your core thesis still holds: what we’re told is rarely why things happen. But it also suggests that the next chapter may arrive suddenly, once the mechanics of power are fully in place.
I agree with your reply except that you may wish to reconsider calling the Caribbean a "secondary theater". China, Russia, Iran, and the other folks who wish to blunt U.S. influence are nibbling at our fringes like a reverse " Anaconda Plan" (U.S. Civil War strategy). I applaud Trump for finally saying "enough" in our own back yard.
Excellent article. ‘See the world as it is not as you would like it to be.’ The threat is now Islam. Millions of Jihadis have simply taken a plane ride to The West, and are having children to make us a minority in our own country. The West has woken. The day has come. Time to act on this. The time has now come.
Bottom line: NO SHARED VALUES MEANS NO WORLD PEACE. We here in America have freedoms and values that are not shared by the other major forces in the world ( i am excluding Israel here) and never will be. Preserving those freedoms and values will ALWAYS require a gentle balancing act in dealing with tbe evil parts of the world. I imagine Israel must think the same way. Maybe trump does attack Iranian leaders, maybe he doesn't. He should at a minimum think more before talking
Well said. Trump does not impress me as much of a thinker, unless scheming counts as thinking. He’s a reactor and appears to verbalize whatever emotional thought comes into his head. Appearances can be deceiving though, especially when most of what we see is what the media shows us. We know, especially now, just how much slant, propaganda, and lies they try to pass off as accurate news.
Who says US values are that wonderful? Every country except Israel it seems, knows one cannot trust the US no matter what political power is in the WH. The US is known to break any and all agreements and treaties, desert allies and befriend enemies, and stab allies in the back at a whim. The US openly interferes with democratic country elections and then whines when it happens to it. When one looks in to the US from across the border, one sees divisiveness, and a country awash with hatred, guns, and fanatics.
Obviously not you. We need to be more like china ( concentration camps for uighers) or Iran ( hang gays from cranes) or Europe ( imprison free speech makers or bar jews from soccer games or be so magnanimous to jews as they have for 2000 plus years). And then theres russia ( ally to China and iran). At least you are honest about how you feel about america.
Excellent article! One that truly understands reality instead of preaching wishful thinking.
International law, at this point, is largely meaningless. The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself.
The League of Nations/UN, the ICC, and other international law organizations have all become irrelevant. It would be far better to replace them with a new framework: a League of Western Democracies.
I will mind-read Trump that Realpolitik also includes for change of a system has to happen from within. Our imposition of democracy on countries that were not ready for it, were failures.
Thought Ms. Berg’s logic was as weak as a wet tissue. Yes, decisions were not based on morality, support of democracy, etc. But much of MBS’s considerations depend on his need to survive his rivals in the House of Saud; AND, a new regime in Iran would strengthen the US, the moderate Arab states, weaken China & Russia, and get of a malignant tumor which needs excission. SO, notwithstanding the Elbridge Colby Iran apologists, the strike will come.
Reading this essay - and the lively debate in the comments - feels like I’m sitting in on a university course. It all gives an intelligent framework to what I’ve learned about the world (among other things) since 7/10/23 - which is that, on a global level, we are peeing into the wind with our idealism, that democracy is an honour system that only works when we all agree to follow the rules, and that if we don’t snap to attention and take the rose coloured glasses off when we look outside of our Western, cushy lives, we are in for a nasty surprise. Thank you for this thoroughly educational post.
In line with the main point of this excellent essay, the author did not offer any reasons why an attack, or lack thereof, was in the interests of the U.S. Do we necessarily "care" about Qatar, Saudi Arabia, even Israel for that matter, independently of the interests of the U.S. Individually, perhaps. But as a country that also wishes to survive in this turbulent world, the national self-interest comes first. Furthermore, unlike a Qatar, or Saudi Arabia, or China, sooner or later you have to convince the majority of citizens that what you are doing is the "correct" thing to do. Then again, all of this is way over my pay grade. Time to concentrate on the really important thing this weekend; American football!
"Contemporary Iran, like medieval Iran, is not a country but a heterogeneous, multinational, and multilingual empire. In Iran, Persians make up half of the country's population, while the other half comprises minorities, which maintain a strong ethnic identity that distinguishes them from Persians."
"Coup 53: The Story of How Operation Ajax Killed a Nascent Iranian Democracy
By Janet Levy
"Playing the game of What if…? with history is usually futile. But sometimes it yields valuable lessons. For instance, What if the CIA and MI6 had not orchestrated the overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953? Consider one possibility – that Iran might have become a bastion of democracy and not what it is today, a threat to the interests of the U.S. and its allies and the biggest cause of instability in the Middle East."
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who was installed in Iran by Jimmy (peanut) Carter:
The Self-Preserving Tyrants
The Ayattollas and Mullahs
are tyrants who prioritize their self-preservation at the expense of their people and are essentially parasites on the body politic.
They view the state and its citizens not as entities to serve, but as resources to be exploited for their own benefit and continued hold on power.
Their rule is characterized by a fundamental inversion of governance: instead of governing for the welfare of the governed, they govern to protect their personal dominion.
"When the Iranian people rose up against their oppressors in 2009, Barack Obama looked the other way. When the Iranian people rose up against their oppressors in 2022, Old Joe Biden sent their oppressors billions of dollars. But Donald Trump was different.
On January 2, Trump wrote: “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J.TRUMP.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and other entities set about killing peaceful protesters with impunity, whereupon Trump wrote on January 13: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.”
The Iranian people trusted him. They kept protesting, even as the inhuman guardians of the Islamic Republic mowed them down in ever-increasing numbers, as many as 20,000. They renamed streets after him. They knew that he would send the help he promised. They knew he would help them see the end of the bloodthirsty and demonic regime that has murdered so very many Iranians since 1979. They knew they finally had someone who heard their cries. Someone they could count on."
Jihadi enemies believe in “sacred time,” a core belief that encourages “martyrdom operations.” At some point, a state enemy could also become a “suicide nuclear bomber"
And last but not least: You can't wage 7th C wars with 21st C laws.
This is truly one of the best publications on Substack. Your guest authors are consistently insightful and devoid of the dog whistle, audience captured virtue signaling that is so prevalent in social media. Keep bringing us these hard truths and keep up the good work.
This is a serious, bracing piece, and I mean that as praise. You do something increasingly rare: you refuse to flatter the reader with comforting illusions. The essay cuts cleanly through the moral theater that so much commentary depends on and insists—correctly—that power, fear, leverage, and self-interest remain the primary drivers of state behavior. Your framing of realpolitik versus moral narrative is especially strong, and your treatment of international law as an instrument rather than a referee will resonate with anyone who has watched Israel judged by rules its adversaries openly mock. This isn’t cynicism for sport; it’s realism grounded in history, political theory, and lived experience.
The only caution I would add—more as a footnote than a rebuttal—is that the story may not yet be finished. As Andrew Fox recently argued, what appears publicly as American restraint may in fact be strategic delay: buying time to reposition and concentrate military assets that had been oddly dispersed, including to secondary theaters like the Caribbean. If that assessment is right, then Tehran—and much of the commentariat—may be mistaking patience for paralysis. Realpolitik cuts both ways. Sometimes the loudest moral explanations are cover not for inaction, but for preparation. In that sense, your core thesis still holds: what we’re told is rarely why things happen. But it also suggests that the next chapter may arrive suddenly, once the mechanics of power are fully in place.
I agree with your reply except that you may wish to reconsider calling the Caribbean a "secondary theater". China, Russia, Iran, and the other folks who wish to blunt U.S. influence are nibbling at our fringes like a reverse " Anaconda Plan" (U.S. Civil War strategy). I applaud Trump for finally saying "enough" in our own back yard.
Excellent article. ‘See the world as it is not as you would like it to be.’ The threat is now Islam. Millions of Jihadis have simply taken a plane ride to The West, and are having children to make us a minority in our own country. The West has woken. The day has come. Time to act on this. The time has now come.
Bottom line: NO SHARED VALUES MEANS NO WORLD PEACE. We here in America have freedoms and values that are not shared by the other major forces in the world ( i am excluding Israel here) and never will be. Preserving those freedoms and values will ALWAYS require a gentle balancing act in dealing with tbe evil parts of the world. I imagine Israel must think the same way. Maybe trump does attack Iranian leaders, maybe he doesn't. He should at a minimum think more before talking
Well said. Trump does not impress me as much of a thinker, unless scheming counts as thinking. He’s a reactor and appears to verbalize whatever emotional thought comes into his head. Appearances can be deceiving though, especially when most of what we see is what the media shows us. We know, especially now, just how much slant, propaganda, and lies they try to pass off as accurate news.
Who says US values are that wonderful? Every country except Israel it seems, knows one cannot trust the US no matter what political power is in the WH. The US is known to break any and all agreements and treaties, desert allies and befriend enemies, and stab allies in the back at a whim. The US openly interferes with democratic country elections and then whines when it happens to it. When one looks in to the US from across the border, one sees divisiveness, and a country awash with hatred, guns, and fanatics.
Obviously not you. We need to be more like china ( concentration camps for uighers) or Iran ( hang gays from cranes) or Europe ( imprison free speech makers or bar jews from soccer games or be so magnanimous to jews as they have for 2000 plus years). And then theres russia ( ally to China and iran). At least you are honest about how you feel about america.
Excellent article! One that truly understands reality instead of preaching wishful thinking.
International law, at this point, is largely meaningless. The only place where Western law can still be relevant today is within the West itself.
The League of Nations/UN, the ICC, and other international law organizations have all become irrelevant. It would be far better to replace them with a new framework: a League of Western Democracies.
I will mind-read Trump that Realpolitik also includes for change of a system has to happen from within. Our imposition of democracy on countries that were not ready for it, were failures.
Brilliant, precise and true in every word! And sobering! Thank you Vanessa Berg! ⭐
Excellent article.
Thought Ms. Berg’s logic was as weak as a wet tissue. Yes, decisions were not based on morality, support of democracy, etc. But much of MBS’s considerations depend on his need to survive his rivals in the House of Saud; AND, a new regime in Iran would strengthen the US, the moderate Arab states, weaken China & Russia, and get of a malignant tumor which needs excission. SO, notwithstanding the Elbridge Colby Iran apologists, the strike will come.
Reading this essay - and the lively debate in the comments - feels like I’m sitting in on a university course. It all gives an intelligent framework to what I’ve learned about the world (among other things) since 7/10/23 - which is that, on a global level, we are peeing into the wind with our idealism, that democracy is an honour system that only works when we all agree to follow the rules, and that if we don’t snap to attention and take the rose coloured glasses off when we look outside of our Western, cushy lives, we are in for a nasty surprise. Thank you for this thoroughly educational post.
Compelling analysis. Thank you very much.
In line with the main point of this excellent essay, the author did not offer any reasons why an attack, or lack thereof, was in the interests of the U.S. Do we necessarily "care" about Qatar, Saudi Arabia, even Israel for that matter, independently of the interests of the U.S. Individually, perhaps. But as a country that also wishes to survive in this turbulent world, the national self-interest comes first. Furthermore, unlike a Qatar, or Saudi Arabia, or China, sooner or later you have to convince the majority of citizens that what you are doing is the "correct" thing to do. Then again, all of this is way over my pay grade. Time to concentrate on the really important thing this weekend; American football!
exactly correct
Don't forget that during the war, Bibby went on TV and encouraged revolution in Iran.
Brilliant
"Contemporary Iran, like medieval Iran, is not a country but a heterogeneous, multinational, and multilingual empire. In Iran, Persians make up half of the country's population, while the other half comprises minorities, which maintain a strong ethnic identity that distinguishes them from Persians."
https://www.memri.org/reports/roadmap-towards-confederalism-future-iran
"Coup 53: The Story of How Operation Ajax Killed a Nascent Iranian Democracy
By Janet Levy
"Playing the game of What if…? with history is usually futile. But sometimes it yields valuable lessons. For instance, What if the CIA and MI6 had not orchestrated the overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953? Consider one possibility – that Iran might have become a bastion of democracy and not what it is today, a threat to the interests of the U.S. and its allies and the biggest cause of instability in the Middle East."
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/04/coup_53_the_story_of_how_operation_ajax_killed_a_nascent_iranian_democracy.html
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/01/world/us-iran-conflict-timeline-trnd/
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who was installed in Iran by Jimmy (peanut) Carter:
The Self-Preserving Tyrants
The Ayattollas and Mullahs
are tyrants who prioritize their self-preservation at the expense of their people and are essentially parasites on the body politic.
They view the state and its citizens not as entities to serve, but as resources to be exploited for their own benefit and continued hold on power.
Their rule is characterized by a fundamental inversion of governance: instead of governing for the welfare of the governed, they govern to protect their personal dominion.
"When the Iranian people rose up against their oppressors in 2009, Barack Obama looked the other way. When the Iranian people rose up against their oppressors in 2022, Old Joe Biden sent their oppressors billions of dollars. But Donald Trump was different.
On January 2, Trump wrote: “If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J.TRUMP.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and other entities set about killing peaceful protesters with impunity, whereupon Trump wrote on January 13: “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.”
The Iranian people trusted him. They kept protesting, even as the inhuman guardians of the Islamic Republic mowed them down in ever-increasing numbers, as many as 20,000. They renamed streets after him. They knew that he would send the help he promised. They knew he would help them see the end of the bloodthirsty and demonic regime that has murdered so very many Iranians since 1979. They knew they finally had someone who heard their cries. Someone they could count on."
https://jihadwatch.org/2026/01/iran-the-great-betrayal
Jihadi enemies believe in “sacred time,” a core belief that encourages “martyrdom operations.” At some point, a state enemy could also become a “suicide nuclear bomber"
And last but not least: You can't wage 7th C wars with 21st C laws.