The Brutal Logic of Israel’s Offensive in Gaza City
The IDF will win this battle, Hamas will win the propaganda war, and much of the world will punish Israel for achieving yet another military victory against a brutal and barbaric terror group.
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This is a guest essay by Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer and current think tank research fellow focusing on defense, the Middle East, and disinformation.
You can also listen to the podcast version of this essay on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Music, YouTube, and Spotify.
Now that the much-trailed Gaza City ground offensive has been launched, what can we expect to see over the coming weeks and months?
What we have seen so far are “shaping operations.” These are military actions designed to prepare the battlefield for an army’s main manoeuvre efforts. We have seen the IDF striking tall buildings that represent key terrain. Key terrain is any location or area whose seizure, retention, or control gives a significant tactical advantage to either combatant.
In the case of Gaza’s tall buildings, the vantage points provided by high-rise towers would have lent a significant overwatch advantage to Hamas, allowing them to observe IDF ground manoeuvres. The IDF could not seize them and could not blind them, so it opted to deny them to the enemy by destroying them, after issuing evacuation orders.
The IDF will have also attempted to degrade Hamas. They will have struck known command and control locations, logistics nodes, and communications assets. The point of using firepower in this manner is to facilitate what is known as the break-in.
The British Army has four stages to an urban assault: investment, break-in, seizure of objectives, and clearance. We can expect to see similar from the IDF.
Investment aims to isolate the area occupied by the enemy, seize or deny principal terrain features, and dominate the approaches. We have seen this phase in Gaza City over past few weeks.
Ongoing is the break-in battle to seize a foothold in the area. This is the most challenging and perilous part of the urban assault. The enemy has had time to prepare. There will be mines on routes, IED belts, defensive ambushes, and mutually supporting enemy positions, most likely with fallback positions, if the first assault on Gaza City is a template. This is very likely why the battle-hardened 96 and 162 Divisions have been chosen for the task. These were formations that previously led the way in Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah.
Once the break-in battle is won, the IDF will seize their key objectives, then proceed with a methodical clearance of all Hamas infrastructure they can find. This is almost exactly how the previous battles in Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah went. I do not expect this battle to be any different.
What of Hamas?
We are told that there are approximately 3,000 fighters estimated to be in Gaza City. However, it is a guarantee that some will have fled to Al-Mawasi or the new humanitarian zone in Khan Younis. Again, this is what happened before. We can expect them to stand and fight only in minimal cases. They have seen this before; they cannot match the IDF. I assess that they are more likely to use guerrilla, hit-and-run tactics: short, sharp, close-range ambushes that inflict as much damage as possible, with an immediate, rapid withdrawal. These contacts can be over in seconds.
There is no doubt about how this fight will turn out. Hamas cannot stand and hold against the IDF’s firepower and manpower overmatch. The reported three-month timeline for the operation sounds realistic. I expect several things to happen during those three months.
Firstly, civilian casualties will be high. Hamas has spent weeks warning, cajoling, tricking and, in some cases, forcing civilians not to evacuate despite relentless IDF efforts to persuade them to leave. Approximately 350,000 Gazans of an estimated 1 million have already fled. I expect this number to increase. However, there will still be a significant civilian presence unless something radical changes. Hamas wants this. Weaponisation of civilian casualties is key to their strategy.
Secondly, these civilian deaths will be counted (and exaggerated) on a deeply implausible minute-by-minute basis by the Hamas administrative stooges in their “Ministry of Health.” The exaggeration and implausibility will not matter. The world’s media will repeat them verbatim. There will be social media and international uproar on Western streets and in Western administrations. I expect further sanctions on Israel, and possibly even a suspension of the Abraham Accords. The strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar has united the Arab world against Israel, and just today Saudi Arabia issued a stiff condemnation of the Gaza City operation.
As with “All Eyes On Rafah,” I do not predict that these events will have any impact on the course of the war. Still, Israel’s international isolation and global support for the Palestinian cause could be confirmed for years to come.
Thirdly, I expect Hamas to do everything it can to melt away once Israel reaches the clearance stage of the operation. Between now and then, they will try to inflict maximum cost on the IDF, both physically and reputationally. I also expect the hostages to come into play, either through more torture videos or even executions. At least one hostage may die as a result of the ongoing operation, as we know Hamas has brought several hostages to the surface as human shields. This, too, will be weaponised.
Fourthly, it is also possible (but unlikely) that hostages may be rescued. Hamas will have many contingency plans in place to kill them should the IDF draw close. However, no plan survives contact with the enemy, so a miraculous hostage rescue remains an outside chance. I do expect bodies to be recovered.
Finally, I do not expect this to be the end of Hamas. They will lose many fighters, at the cost of IDF soldiers’ lives and limbs, and a large number of civilians will suffer as collateral damage. Hamas will melt away when the battle is conclusively lost, to lick their wounds and plan the insurgency against what comes next. Remember: The Muslim Brotherhood (of which Hamas is an offshoot) thinks in decades and centuries.
“What comes next” is not clear. Will the IDF fully occupy, cease manoeuvre operations, and attempt to hold the ground? This will put them in a costly counterinsurgency with no clear end in sight. It may be that, instead, we see the establishment of a West Bank strategy, where the IDF regularly intervenes to destroy perceived threats as and when they arise.
Will they move on to Central Camps (Deir Al-Balah) to finish the clearance there? If so, expect another three months of high-intensity combat after the Gaza City operation concludes.
There is no clear solution yet to remove Hamas’ influence over governance. The IDF can clear Gaza City and Central Camps, but Hamas’ influence will remain. Even if Hamas lays down its arms, surrenders, and returns the hostages, its toxic ideology will remain in the administrative arms of Gazan society and the hearts of too many Palestinians.
The right move has been made to empower rival clans to seize control of their areas in Gaza whilst Hamas is distracted and weakened. However, this neither guarantees an end to Hamas’ central governance influence (the courts and ministries are infested, top to bottom), nor an end to Hamas’ ability to wage a low-level insurgency. It prevents them from striking again at Israel in large numbers, but this goal was achieved months ago.
None of the above guarantees a government in Gaza that is, at its core, content to coexist alongside Israel. I do not doubt that at the end of high-intensity operations, victory will be announced and Hamas will be declared beaten. They will not be, because for the short- to medium-term future; the toxic ideology of Palestinianism (destroying Israel “from the River to the Sea”) is now stronger than it has been at any point since 1948. It has widespread regional and global support. Israel’s enemies, supported from abroad, will hunker down for the years and decades it takes to reconstitute.
Whoever administers Gaza next, there will be factions planning to continue the fight against Israel in due course, with plentiful overseas backing. If they are not Palestinian, whatever form that takes, they will face a full-blooded insurgency. Of course, civil war in Gaza is not out of the question.
The plan for Gaza must consider all these factors. I have already highlighted the issues with U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan. These issues only go away if Gaza is emptied of Palestinians completely, never to return. I do not see the international community agreeing to this. In short, there are no easy answers; only least-worst options. I still favour the West Bank option as the lowest cost for the highest reward.
None of the above really addresses the return of living hostages. A deal remains their best chance of survival, but there is no scenario here where all will be returned by military force. Hamas’ surrender is a low probability at this point, but it might happen if enough commanders and fighters are killed. Without that, however, with the commencement of the Gaza City operation, I have never been so concerned about their fate, especially if Hamas is backed into a corner with nothing to lose.
Gaza City will likely be reduced to a contested mosaic of shattered high-rises, cleared tunnels and smouldering streets. It will be a comprehensive tactical victory for the IDF, but far from a strategic solution. The coming weeks will deliver high civilian cost, continued guerrilla strikes, and grim uncertainty for the hostages, while Hamas’ organisational and ideological roots will outlast any single operation.
What follows must therefore be more than a military mop-up. It must be a brutally honest political strategy that recognises the limits of force, protects the vulnerable, secures the hostages where possible, and accepts that rebuilding legitimacy in Gaza will take years of regional and international investment if we are to avoid repeating this cycle.
 | A guest post by
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This operation to move forward is clearly the only alternative. Israel’s survival is at stake. Losing members of the IDF to this cancerous presence is a bitter reality. The bleak prospect of even more international condemnation is, frankly, enfuriating.
It is grievous that any excuse no matter how minor is seized upon. Israel needs to know that countless supporters around the globe are praying for their victory. Let them know that government leaders do not reflect many citizens perspective, even love for Israel.
Thank you for this truthful account. 🙏