The famed essayist and mathematical statistician Nassim Taleb called Israel a fragile country. He might be partly right, but Taleb overlooks many factors that make the country uniquely resilient.
Excellent article but I have to add some corrections regarding Israel's arms industries.
Israel is the 8th largest weapons exporter, with everything from small arms (Galil rifle is standard issue in Chile, Colombia, Vietnam) to artillery (Israeli ATMOS guns have replaced their French equivalent in Morocco) and missiles (Israel's SPIKE antitank missile is used by every NATO country bar France and Turkey. The US Army chose SPIKE in 2024 to replace the Hellfire in its helicopters). SPICE bomb guidance kits from Rafael are widely exported.
Of course, all of Israel's armored vehicles (Merkava tanks, Namer and Eitan infantry fighting vehicles) are Israeli designs. They are partly built in the US only to use US military aid but were also built in Israel.
A selection of Israel weapons links is below.
The only area where Israel does not build anymore is combat aircraft. Israel's Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (IAI Air Lora, Elbit Rampage, Rafael ROCKS) allow precision strikes from 500+ km at supersonic speed. IAI videos show Air Lora mounted on commercial airliners used for reconnaissance and one can wonder if in the future these might replace more complex aircraft. Israel is the only Western country with this revolutionary weapon, first used against Yemen and Iran in 2024.
Also worth remembering that for the first 20 years of Israel's existence, its most fragile period, there was a US arms embargo against it. RFK was assassinated in 1968 by a Palestinian because of his pledge to end the arms embargo if elected President.
You are correct of course. The point though is that there are limits, due to population as to what Israel can manufacture. Although I have recently felt that AI and robotics should help solve some of that problem. Israel needs more startups dealing with these issues.
There are limits to what Israel can manufacture but the biggest one is combat aircraft and that may be less relevant now that Israel's ALBM can be mounted on many aircraft, like the P8 (militarized Boeing 737).
The same applies in the reverse direction: the latest versions of the US M1 tank and the German Leopard 2 tank come standard with Israel's Trophy active protection system. This system accounts for the difference in tank losses between Ukraine and Gaza, as Hamas had similar antitank weapons as used in Ukraine.
British Challenger 3 tank upgrade program also specifies Trophy so perhaps the UK is not so keen on a (bidirectional ) arms embargo...
The new British Type 26 frigate uses armor from Israel's Plasan.
In summary, there are weapons Israel doesn't produce, the most important of which can become obsolete with Israel's ALBM and there are weapon systems Israel produces that are absolutely critical for some of the most important Western weapons. Quite a change from 1948.
I don’t disagree with you. My point was that as a small country, Israel is limited as to what it can manufacture - not design. I am hoping AI and robotics will solve some of that problem.
Excellent essay. It is more clear now that the moderate Arab countries desperately want Israel to decisively win this war against Islamism/terror and that their own survival depends on it. I can see, in the not-too-distant future, a time when all the Abraham accords are secured; then, economic cooperation could lead to weapons manufacturing within these new alliances with the main goal being to support Israel's military. Israel is proving itself to be the protector of the entire Middle East and it is in the best interest of all the Arab countries to keep Israel militarily strong and for it to become independent (and notice how the people of Iran, Lebanon and many in Syria have turned to begging ISRAEL to save them, not any of the Arab countries). This would be a giant step toward non-dependence on the whims and benevolence of the USA. It also seems to me that Trump is working toward this goal of making Israel/the Middle East independent as well as pushing Europe to become independent.
In Genesis 12:3, the Lord says of Israel, "I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you I will curse; and all peoples on earth will be blessed through you."
It is so sad that you have so much hate in your heart and soul, so much evil. I feel sorry for you. The new Middle East will be good for ALL the people in the region, including the Arabs in Gaza. All the death (millions) that Muslims have inflicted on each other and "infidels" (and still do) will come to an end and peace, prosperity and coexistence will be blossoming throughout the region. Who would not want such a thing for all the peoples there? -- Only someone with evil and death in their hearts and minds would not want that for the Middle East and the world. I pray you will find peace and truth. Open your heart and accept blessings, not curses.
A good summary of Israel's strengths and weaknesses. I break it down to the Israeli people are resilient and the media and the politicians are basically dividing the country and making it more fractious and fragile (much like in the US, especially since the O'bummer administration). I have long felt that Israel needs to break free or at least lessen it's dependence on US military aid. It would go a long way to addressing the concerns of the parts of the US electorate that want to avoid involvement and taxpayer spending on foreign wars during this uncertain economic time. It could also help bring back money into Israel's economy as you point out.
A lot to digest! I do believe that all Countries are fragile in their own ways.
Most important Israel should move to make more of its own weapons. However, as a Country, Israel is the strongest, its people are together in their cause. Together this is the most powerful movement! Unstoppable!
The IDF must undergo a rebuilding of its staff that will produce a staff ready willing and able to do whatever is necessary to protect Israel regardless of the views of the so called international community The doctrines of static defense conceptzia and mowing the grass and worrying about what the woke American brass would say as well as overreliance on high tech a smaller smarter army and high tech and disregarding human intelligence all led to 10/7
I was also disappointed at Luttwack's response to this article.
The good news is that the new IDF Chief of Staff, Gen Eyal Zamir, has always been a proponent of a large force capable of large scale ground operations as the article advocates. He comes from the Armored Corps.
As for Lutwack, he is someone I have been reading and respecting for 50 years. I think he just doesn’t quite understand what happened here over the last 20 years.
The UN General Assembly has 190 countries, most of them Third World anti Western ones and works by one country one vote. The UN Security Council is blocked by Russian and Chinese vetoes.
Is there any value in the US remaining in the United Nations? Then the issue of membership in the Security Council goes away.
I didn't mean that as a good thing - just facing the reality that the "powers that be" do not want an unreliable permanent member of the Security Council
Excellent article but I have to add some corrections regarding Israel's arms industries.
Israel is the 8th largest weapons exporter, with everything from small arms (Galil rifle is standard issue in Chile, Colombia, Vietnam) to artillery (Israeli ATMOS guns have replaced their French equivalent in Morocco) and missiles (Israel's SPIKE antitank missile is used by every NATO country bar France and Turkey. The US Army chose SPIKE in 2024 to replace the Hellfire in its helicopters). SPICE bomb guidance kits from Rafael are widely exported.
Of course, all of Israel's armored vehicles (Merkava tanks, Namer and Eitan infantry fighting vehicles) are Israeli designs. They are partly built in the US only to use US military aid but were also built in Israel.
A selection of Israel weapons links is below.
The only area where Israel does not build anymore is combat aircraft. Israel's Air Launched Ballistic Missiles (IAI Air Lora, Elbit Rampage, Rafael ROCKS) allow precision strikes from 500+ km at supersonic speed. IAI videos show Air Lora mounted on commercial airliners used for reconnaissance and one can wonder if in the future these might replace more complex aircraft. Israel is the only Western country with this revolutionary weapon, first used against Yemen and Iran in 2024.
Also worth remembering that for the first 20 years of Israel's existence, its most fragile period, there was a US arms embargo against it. RFK was assassinated in 1968 by a Palestinian because of his pledge to end the arms embargo if elected President.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/breaking-news-morocco-chooses-israeli-atmos-2000-howitzers-over-french-caesar-amid-growing-defense-ties
https://www.twz.com/air/air-lora-israels-biggest-air-launched-ballistic-missile-emerges-from-the-shadows
https://iwi.net/products/
https://euro-sd.com/2025/02/major-news/42458/germany-selects-elbit-puls/
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/07/16/lockheed-rafale-spice-kit-mou/
You are correct of course. The point though is that there are limits, due to population as to what Israel can manufacture. Although I have recently felt that AI and robotics should help solve some of that problem. Israel needs more startups dealing with these issues.
There are limits to what Israel can manufacture but the biggest one is combat aircraft and that may be less relevant now that Israel's ALBM can be mounted on many aircraft, like the P8 (militarized Boeing 737).
The same applies in the reverse direction: the latest versions of the US M1 tank and the German Leopard 2 tank come standard with Israel's Trophy active protection system. This system accounts for the difference in tank losses between Ukraine and Gaza, as Hamas had similar antitank weapons as used in Ukraine.
British Challenger 3 tank upgrade program also specifies Trophy so perhaps the UK is not so keen on a (bidirectional ) arms embargo...
The new British Type 26 frigate uses armor from Israel's Plasan.
In summary, there are weapons Israel doesn't produce, the most important of which can become obsolete with Israel's ALBM and there are weapon systems Israel produces that are absolutely critical for some of the most important Western weapons. Quite a change from 1948.
https://www.twz.com/40859/the-case-for-stripping-the-p-8-poseidon-down-into-an-rb-8-multi-role-arsenal-ship
I don’t disagree with you. My point was that as a small country, Israel is limited as to what it can manufacture - not design. I am hoping AI and robotics will solve some of that problem.
Excellent essay. It is more clear now that the moderate Arab countries desperately want Israel to decisively win this war against Islamism/terror and that their own survival depends on it. I can see, in the not-too-distant future, a time when all the Abraham accords are secured; then, economic cooperation could lead to weapons manufacturing within these new alliances with the main goal being to support Israel's military. Israel is proving itself to be the protector of the entire Middle East and it is in the best interest of all the Arab countries to keep Israel militarily strong and for it to become independent (and notice how the people of Iran, Lebanon and many in Syria have turned to begging ISRAEL to save them, not any of the Arab countries). This would be a giant step toward non-dependence on the whims and benevolence of the USA. It also seems to me that Trump is working toward this goal of making Israel/the Middle East independent as well as pushing Europe to become independent.
In Genesis 12:3, the Lord says of Israel, "I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you I will curse; and all peoples on earth will be blessed through you."
It is so sad that you have so much hate in your heart and soul, so much evil. I feel sorry for you. The new Middle East will be good for ALL the people in the region, including the Arabs in Gaza. All the death (millions) that Muslims have inflicted on each other and "infidels" (and still do) will come to an end and peace, prosperity and coexistence will be blossoming throughout the region. Who would not want such a thing for all the peoples there? -- Only someone with evil and death in their hearts and minds would not want that for the Middle East and the world. I pray you will find peace and truth. Open your heart and accept blessings, not curses.
A good summary of Israel's strengths and weaknesses. I break it down to the Israeli people are resilient and the media and the politicians are basically dividing the country and making it more fractious and fragile (much like in the US, especially since the O'bummer administration). I have long felt that Israel needs to break free or at least lessen it's dependence on US military aid. It would go a long way to addressing the concerns of the parts of the US electorate that want to avoid involvement and taxpayer spending on foreign wars during this uncertain economic time. It could also help bring back money into Israel's economy as you point out.
A lot to digest! I do believe that all Countries are fragile in their own ways.
Most important Israel should move to make more of its own weapons. However, as a Country, Israel is the strongest, its people are together in their cause. Together this is the most powerful movement! Unstoppable!
The IDF must undergo a rebuilding of its staff that will produce a staff ready willing and able to do whatever is necessary to protect Israel regardless of the views of the so called international community The doctrines of static defense conceptzia and mowing the grass and worrying about what the woke American brass would say as well as overreliance on high tech a smaller smarter army and high tech and disregarding human intelligence all led to 10/7
Excellent article by Ran Baratz, professor at IDF staff college, on the need to revise military concepts that arose after the end of the Cold War
https://mosaicmagazine.com/essay/israel-zionism/2025/01/whats-wrong-with-the-postmodern-military/
Baratz's article is excellent as you write. So are the responses although surprisingly, Lutwack's was off the mark.
I was also disappointed at Luttwack's response to this article.
The good news is that the new IDF Chief of Staff, Gen Eyal Zamir, has always been a proponent of a large force capable of large scale ground operations as the article advocates. He comes from the Armored Corps.
He is off to a good start.
As for Lutwack, he is someone I have been reading and respecting for 50 years. I think he just doesn’t quite understand what happened here over the last 20 years.
Why don’t you stand with those residents of Gaza who have had enough of Hamas’s misrule?
Is it because that is the only time we are United and not arguing?
The UN General Assembly has 190 countries, most of them Third World anti Western ones and works by one country one vote. The UN Security Council is blocked by Russian and Chinese vetoes.
Is there any value in the US remaining in the United Nations? Then the issue of membership in the Security Council goes away.
I didn't mean that as a good thing - just facing the reality that the "powers that be" do not want an unreliable permanent member of the Security Council