Let’s be blunt: this isn’t a fairy tale ending—it’s a power correction. Iran isn’t disappearing, and anyone selling that is pushing fantasy. But it is being boxed in, degraded, and exposed. That matters. What really matters is the alignment forming in real time—Israel plus Arab states acting on shared threat, not old grudges. That’s historic. And it didn’t come from think tanks or peace panels—it came from force. Durable peace in the Middle East has never come from weakness. It comes when bad actors understand the cost of aggression. That lesson is finally being taught—and the region is recalibrating around it.
You are pointing to the low probability of regime change in Iran, while all that follows in your post makes it almost inevitable! The most recent revelation that the Saudi leader MBS is strongly supporting Trump and the U.S. to finish what had been started — regime change — is a wind blowing in the same direction!
Of course my statement is driven by wishful thinking, as I do care deeply about Israel, but also carry a soft spot for the Iranian people, as my late parents and only brother spent 4 years as expat family in Iran, 2 years in Qazvin and 2 in Tehran, supporting the development efforts of the country; my father was a civil engineer, mother — an architect. In Qazvin they were part of a team of husbandry experts from the kibbutz sector, designing and supervising the construction of the pens for turkeys and sheep (Israel became so good in growing turkeys that I cannot consume their meat forever, still have a photo somewhere of my son, Adam, about 12-14 months old, sharing a monster turkey’s drumstick with out tiger boxer Beam). In Tehran, father was the overall project manager with a local partner (Hadith-Rasco JV) of Intercontinental Tehran — a 500-room, 5+ star hotel — that had been completed in 20 months, to be ready for the celebrations of the 2,500 years of the Persian Empire.
Joshua, you’re right that something important may be shifting in the region. If Iran’s power is truly weakened and Arab states align more openly with Israel, that could reshape the Middle East.
Credit where it’s due: Trump and Netanyahu have played enormous roles in pushing this reality forward — from the Abraham Accords to confronting Iran directly.
But we shouldn’t imagine a fairy-tale ending. Iran may be degraded, yet Qatar’s propaganda war continues, Turkey under Erdoğan backs Hamas, and much of the hostility toward Israel in the Arab world still remains.
In the end, real peace will come through two things: strength and education. Strength deters aggression; education changes societies. What we may be seeing now is a powerful start — but there is still a long way to go.
We are yet to see the Gulf States take action against Iran, whether economic or military.
We still do not see Western Democracies, especially the UK and EU take economic, diplomatic or military action against Iran. After all, they are the biggest losers of this conflict with started with the Houthis.
There are still Iranian citizens, children of Iranian leaders, in American universities. Why are they not expelled back home since the breakout of hostilities?
And last but not least, we can never be sure that the US will continue degrading the Ayatollahs and Mullahs economically nor militarily till they raise a white flag.
Even if extremely generous support coalitions are currently forming in the Middle East, I can only urgently warn against trusting any Arab or Muslim country.
These countries may present themselves as exuberantly warm and friendly in the current situation, but they don’t even trust each other — and with good reason. Their basic character is highly skilled at emotional negotiation, yet they feel bound only by their words and deeds toward “their God,” and at best within the family.
It would be a massive mistake — exactly the same one that was made with Iran in the last century — to hand over weapons technology to these countries, for example.
Exciting realigning of common interests. Let's hope for a new government in Iran, perhaps the prince even, and let's pray for some peace and quiet in the region.
I agree that the old Middle East may be evaporating, and yet I'm not so sure it's for the long term. They may recognize that Tehran was now a real threat to them, but they also have the US and Israel fighting for them. The Saudis and UAE have been talking and preparing for quite awhile and I would be surprised if they actually participate in the war with the US and Israel. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised. This regime will never surrender so it has to be eliminated either by death, capturing and arresting members of the guard, army, and those still in positions of any power. If not, the deaths of 40,000 Iranians and continued arrests and torture of civilians, Israelis killed from missiles, and soldiers killed in action will be martyrdom. I stopped believing in fairy tale endings a long time ago, but there has to be an ending that will give Iranians the freedom they haven't enjoyed since 1979. This I believe, the Gulf States will never form a genuine alliance with Israel. They will sit on the sidelines cheering Israel's strength, but they will do it quietly. In the end, they will never go against their own. I'd like to be wrong.
Given the stance of the Democrats and their media cohorts the Arab nations, Israel the Mullahs and the Iranian people have no reason to be confident American policy won't be completely reversed in 2029.
I agree and that's why election integrity and getting out to vote is more than a choice. Our country depends on it. I heard some comments Pritzker made yesterday on an interview sayingt that they will be going after Trump and his administration once he's no longer president. They plan to charge all of them and never let them rest. This is the Democrat party, no longer working for the people but themselves to hold onto power.
"It is a coalition born not of idealism, but of realism." This coalition will be fragile not because of anything overtly visible but because of the Islamic component within the Arab partners. As long as these imams and mullahs have the ability to materially affect how these governments act then the day will come, sadly, when they'll return to their Israel hatred using the Koran as justification, yet again.
Connected to the new alignment in the Mid east is the alignment in the USA. I just read Melanie Phillips about the appeal of Carlson....is he really that much of a power figure? The lopsided polling about how Democrats overwhelmingly support "Palestine" And as other comments include....the ongoing hostility to Israel within Arab countries. and Palestine society. Yesterday on NewsNation Chris Cuomo ponders who wins the war...if the Islamic regime is still in power? And the president is concluding some kind of negotiations with the "right people" After an unnamed gift. The Jews will always be blamed.... win or lose ...if there is such a determination.
The mullahs did this to themselves on 7 October 2023. Days before in New York, at the annual United Nations bullshitfest, the Israelis and Saudis sat down together for very productive talks.
The mullahs knew that was the end for them - maybe not immediately, but definitely.
So they launched October 7th.
This beating is the result of that miscalculation.
All this only works if the boot remains on the Mullahs necks no matter how long it takes. This is the strategy that worked with the USSR and it would not have happened had Reagan not been elected in 1980. He was singularly committed to ending the Soviet Union by challenging them and the Democrats, to put it mildly (And whatever they pretend today) were not. The next administration could undo everything Trump and Israel have accomplished. Certainly the Mullahs will try to hang on until then.
Let’s be blunt: this isn’t a fairy tale ending—it’s a power correction. Iran isn’t disappearing, and anyone selling that is pushing fantasy. But it is being boxed in, degraded, and exposed. That matters. What really matters is the alignment forming in real time—Israel plus Arab states acting on shared threat, not old grudges. That’s historic. And it didn’t come from think tanks or peace panels—it came from force. Durable peace in the Middle East has never come from weakness. It comes when bad actors understand the cost of aggression. That lesson is finally being taught—and the region is recalibrating around it.
You are pointing to the low probability of regime change in Iran, while all that follows in your post makes it almost inevitable! The most recent revelation that the Saudi leader MBS is strongly supporting Trump and the U.S. to finish what had been started — regime change — is a wind blowing in the same direction!
I said Iran isn’t disappearing. I didn't say the mullahs and the Ayatollah of the week won't.
Thank you kindly!
Of course my statement is driven by wishful thinking, as I do care deeply about Israel, but also carry a soft spot for the Iranian people, as my late parents and only brother spent 4 years as expat family in Iran, 2 years in Qazvin and 2 in Tehran, supporting the development efforts of the country; my father was a civil engineer, mother — an architect. In Qazvin they were part of a team of husbandry experts from the kibbutz sector, designing and supervising the construction of the pens for turkeys and sheep (Israel became so good in growing turkeys that I cannot consume their meat forever, still have a photo somewhere of my son, Adam, about 12-14 months old, sharing a monster turkey’s drumstick with out tiger boxer Beam). In Tehran, father was the overall project manager with a local partner (Hadith-Rasco JV) of Intercontinental Tehran — a 500-room, 5+ star hotel — that had been completed in 20 months, to be ready for the celebrations of the 2,500 years of the Persian Empire.
I visited in 1969 and 1970 (on special leaves from IDF bootcamp and squad commanders infantry training), had the amazing experience of seeing the ruins of Persepolis (https://maps.app.goo.gl/pbGBzMMzLWANGPuA9?g_st=ipc) and Pasargadae (https://maps.app.goo.gl/ecLrEvj1quyqFJY7A?g_st=ic), in addition to trips to the Caspian Sea, Isfahan and Shiraz.
Free Iran!
Joshua, you’re right that something important may be shifting in the region. If Iran’s power is truly weakened and Arab states align more openly with Israel, that could reshape the Middle East.
Credit where it’s due: Trump and Netanyahu have played enormous roles in pushing this reality forward — from the Abraham Accords to confronting Iran directly.
But we shouldn’t imagine a fairy-tale ending. Iran may be degraded, yet Qatar’s propaganda war continues, Turkey under Erdoğan backs Hamas, and much of the hostility toward Israel in the Arab world still remains.
In the end, real peace will come through two things: strength and education. Strength deters aggression; education changes societies. What we may be seeing now is a powerful start — but there is still a long way to go.
We are yet to see the Gulf States take action against Iran, whether economic or military.
We still do not see Western Democracies, especially the UK and EU take economic, diplomatic or military action against Iran. After all, they are the biggest losers of this conflict with started with the Houthis.
There are still Iranian citizens, children of Iranian leaders, in American universities. Why are they not expelled back home since the breakout of hostilities?
And last but not least, we can never be sure that the US will continue degrading the Ayatollahs and Mullahs economically nor militarily till they raise a white flag.
Interesting observation that Iranian students should be expelled from US universities. I'd vote for that.
Have to be super prudent in discriminating between the enemies of the New Middle East order and its supporters. Please define “Iranian” students!
I think he is referring to children of members of the regime not expatriate enemies of the regime.
You are right. Should not have painted with such a broad brush.
Thank you Jane Stuart for positive reaction!
Sear Joshua!
Even if extremely generous support coalitions are currently forming in the Middle East, I can only urgently warn against trusting any Arab or Muslim country.
These countries may present themselves as exuberantly warm and friendly in the current situation, but they don’t even trust each other — and with good reason. Their basic character is highly skilled at emotional negotiation, yet they feel bound only by their words and deeds toward “their God,” and at best within the family.
It would be a massive mistake — exactly the same one that was made with Iran in the last century — to hand over weapons technology to these countries, for example.
Exciting realigning of common interests. Let's hope for a new government in Iran, perhaps the prince even, and let's pray for some peace and quiet in the region.
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
I agree that the old Middle East may be evaporating, and yet I'm not so sure it's for the long term. They may recognize that Tehran was now a real threat to them, but they also have the US and Israel fighting for them. The Saudis and UAE have been talking and preparing for quite awhile and I would be surprised if they actually participate in the war with the US and Israel. I'd like to be pleasantly surprised. This regime will never surrender so it has to be eliminated either by death, capturing and arresting members of the guard, army, and those still in positions of any power. If not, the deaths of 40,000 Iranians and continued arrests and torture of civilians, Israelis killed from missiles, and soldiers killed in action will be martyrdom. I stopped believing in fairy tale endings a long time ago, but there has to be an ending that will give Iranians the freedom they haven't enjoyed since 1979. This I believe, the Gulf States will never form a genuine alliance with Israel. They will sit on the sidelines cheering Israel's strength, but they will do it quietly. In the end, they will never go against their own. I'd like to be wrong.
Given the stance of the Democrats and their media cohorts the Arab nations, Israel the Mullahs and the Iranian people have no reason to be confident American policy won't be completely reversed in 2029.
I agree and that's why election integrity and getting out to vote is more than a choice. Our country depends on it. I heard some comments Pritzker made yesterday on an interview sayingt that they will be going after Trump and his administration once he's no longer president. They plan to charge all of them and never let them rest. This is the Democrat party, no longer working for the people but themselves to hold onto power.
Yes, hope is what counts. Again, thank you for aiding me to see the clarity through the dense clouds of smoke.
Thank you for this hopeful essay. Maybe the light will have truly pierced the darkness.
"It is a coalition born not of idealism, but of realism." This coalition will be fragile not because of anything overtly visible but because of the Islamic component within the Arab partners. As long as these imams and mullahs have the ability to materially affect how these governments act then the day will come, sadly, when they'll return to their Israel hatred using the Koran as justification, yet again.
Now, if we could get Turkey to buy into this, life would be grand.
And that would be a fairy tale ending. Erdogan wants his country to be the next Iran.
Unfortunately, it certainly looks that way, NATO or not.
Not so long as Jew hating Islamist Edrogan remains in power.
Much too soon to say
Sure, enjoy your “prudent” (sitting on the fence, skeptical thinking)…
Maybe. But taking South Lebanon and letting the settlers on the West Bank run amok is not right or helpful to your vision or projection
Connected to the new alignment in the Mid east is the alignment in the USA. I just read Melanie Phillips about the appeal of Carlson....is he really that much of a power figure? The lopsided polling about how Democrats overwhelmingly support "Palestine" And as other comments include....the ongoing hostility to Israel within Arab countries. and Palestine society. Yesterday on NewsNation Chris Cuomo ponders who wins the war...if the Islamic regime is still in power? And the president is concluding some kind of negotiations with the "right people" After an unnamed gift. The Jews will always be blamed.... win or lose ...if there is such a determination.
The mullahs did this to themselves on 7 October 2023. Days before in New York, at the annual United Nations bullshitfest, the Israelis and Saudis sat down together for very productive talks.
The mullahs knew that was the end for them - maybe not immediately, but definitely.
So they launched October 7th.
This beating is the result of that miscalculation.
All this only works if the boot remains on the Mullahs necks no matter how long it takes. This is the strategy that worked with the USSR and it would not have happened had Reagan not been elected in 1980. He was singularly committed to ending the Soviet Union by challenging them and the Democrats, to put it mildly (And whatever they pretend today) were not. The next administration could undo everything Trump and Israel have accomplished. Certainly the Mullahs will try to hang on until then.