We are told that Iran’s deal with Obama guaranteed no nukes. IMO, Hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium did not suddenly appear since Trump. I think they continued to produce enriched uranium and said they were not. Iran cannot be taken at its word ever so long as a radical terrorist regime is in control. Don’t beat up Trump for that.And thanks for this post.
Don't beat up Trump for that? What we do or don't beat up Trump for will depend on what is done about the uranium. Going into Iran and blowing it to smithereens, as he has both tried to do and still threatens to do, is obviously not the strategy for success.
Trump is berated for tearing up JCPOA and I ask that we drop the complaint about it. I have lots of complaints about Trump and he can still screw up by not getting the uranium. Lets hope he cares. He already has looted the area for personal gifts and oil interests. Maybe nuclear armageddon is not his worry. Also be sure that the mullah will keep trying to make the bomb.
Because the goal of the Iranian regime is to survive, at any cost, by any means necessary, there are a few certainties:
1) They will comply with agreements only as long as it suits their goals of ultimately destroying both Israel and the United States. They have never complied with any agreement they have made. Ever.
2) Their timeline is far longer than the current US administration's. They will wait out the end of the Trump administration, until, because of their (and Qatar's) propaganda war on Israel, Iran and their proxies can take Israel out, without the United States supplying Israel with the weapons they need to survive. Once Israel is defeated, the United States will be all that much easier.
3) Because we did not defeat / break the will of their regime, the unfortunate citizens of Iran and the rest of the world will continue to suffer every ill that Iran can inflict upon them.
Trump should not have negotiated an agreement with people who will never honor it and who want to kill you. You kill them first and when you have broken their will to fight, you force meaningful change to their society. We did it to Germany and Japan. We had the opportunity to do it here. But didn't.
"Trump should not have negotiated an agreement with people who will never honor it and who want to kill you. You kill them first and when you have broken their will to fight, you force meaningful change to their society. We did it to Germany and Japan. We had the opportunity to do it here. But didn't."
You write absolute truth! This is the core of the problem. We all know it! What is the matter with this administration, with Kushner, with Witkoff and with Trump? You cannot negotiate anything with people who are determined to kill you! They hate Israel and America.
And I heard way too much talk from Trump about Hamas that never happened. Israel's war was almost finished in GAZA and Trump stopped it. He's going to do the same with Iran and the people will be even worse off. Then he'll say he won.
The author's standard is clear — no settlement should be accepted unless the enriched uranium is physically removed and verified. This is exactly where I have little confidence in Trump. His pattern is declaring victory before objectives are secured, and his first-term Iran policy — maximum pressure abandoned for a photo-op deal that never came — suggests he is far more likely to accept a ceasefire that looks like victory than to hold the line until the material is actually off the board.
He was ready to bomb them out of existence, until the other Islamic countries interceded on Iran's behalf. Perhaps it was in exchange for their joining the Abraham accords, but I'm very skeptical.
This is important posting . The removal of enriched uranium is condition sine qua non for any 'deal' with Iran. Unfortunately such a deal in and of itself does not guarantee that Iran won't restart the program again. It only postpones the restart for a number of years, maybe even decades In the end, to resolve this issue once and for all this murderous Iranian regime has to be replaced and buried along with ideology it represents I believe majority of Iranian population is ripe for a change and powers that be should do everything to facilitate it.
General Gallant, thank you for an excellent article. I think you have done a service by focusing everyone's attention on the enriched uranium itself. Whatever happens in the negotiations, that is the issue people should be watching most closely.
I agree that removing or neutralizing that stockpile would represent a major setback for Iran's nuclear ambitions. Let's see how this ultimately plays out. I have learned never to judge Trump until the final result is in. Time and again he has surprised both his critics and his supporters. If anyone understands how to negotiate from a position of strength and secure favorable terms, it is Trump.
Whether this deal proves stronger than those of the past remains to be seen, but I appreciate your reminder of what the real benchmark for success should be.
Plausible, and articulate, and all in the realm of common sense. But, I have no doubts that Mossad is well on the path to do what's necessary. Don't you?
As far as I know--that's the objective Trump claims he wants. Along with the opening of the Strait--and I wish-- he included the end of their missile program, as he said originally. Israel is being barraged by Hezbollah!
What about that? I guess the Groypers and other bigots are happy that seems to be "on the back burner"?
But the "elephant in the room" is that-- if ONE cell of this stage 4 cancer is left-- which is the IRGC--it will regroup as an eventuality.
Both objectives are difficult for Trump who promised "no new wars" "No boots on the ground", etc.
Additionally he is facing the midterms with the specter of the high gas prices and inflation looming. The media believes Iran's version and misleads the American public--which is prone to isolationism 62% think this war was "of choice".
I assume what I just described is what makes him so eager for "a deal". The constant declarations of we are "almost there"--seem to be a ploy to feed red meat to the lions (and the Stockmarket that hates uncertainty).
It brings to mind an old song with these lyrics: "Then along came Jones...and then...and then..asks the chorus?"
The public is left with a constant tease.
I strongly doubt that Trump can perform the miracle of a "deal" that ensures the necessary objective will ever happen --in the way it has to. The main site of the cancer is the IRGC and it must be excised.
Here’s the element everyone forgets…..Trump…. Nothing is up to Bibi or Israel. Israel can still wage its shadow war, but Trump will make the deal he wants. Pretend he won. Say he’s a hero. And others will suffer for his delusion.
It appears the political will in the US to continue the war is exhausted, with high oil prices and the mid-term elections coming soon. The Democrats have been opposed to this joint US/Israeli operation from the start. Remember, there was no Congressional War Powers Resolution authorizing military action. (Maybe that was justified for reasons of operational security, I don't know) So, Trump's priority now is, understandably, to get the Strait open.
Looking ahead several years, after tankers are again transiting the Gulf, there may be trends and opportunities that can change the current equation:
*Expansion of existing and construction of new Strait of Hormuz oil by-pass pipelines, and increase in worldwide oil and natural gas development
*The prospect of eventual alternate invasion and occupation forces into critical parts of Iran (and Yemen). Composed of Troops from now-alienated Gulf nations and East African Countries,
*Increased awareness of the threat of Islamization of the West, leading to repatriation of Radical Islamists and their families back to their country of origin.
Thank you for this explanation, General Yoav Gallant. It is a fine line we are treading with success in mind.
I would like you to know that I have supported you all the way through since October 7, respecting what appeared to me to be calm dignity and common sense with which you navigated the political maelstrom you were forced into. It would be good to see you as leader of the country.
" Iran cannot retain usable control over the enriched uranium stockpile. No settlement, ceasefire, or declaration should be accepted unless the material is accounted for and removed from Iran’s control."
Trump's capitulation through the MOU has determined the outcome: "the enriched uranium remains in Iranian hands" plus it gets billions to reconstruct its nuclear problem, its missile program, and its proxies.
As the French expression so aptly sums up the consequence, "Nous sommes tout fourre."
We are told that Iran’s deal with Obama guaranteed no nukes. IMO, Hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium did not suddenly appear since Trump. I think they continued to produce enriched uranium and said they were not. Iran cannot be taken at its word ever so long as a radical terrorist regime is in control. Don’t beat up Trump for that.And thanks for this post.
100 % .. the only way this campaign ends, is removal of the RAW MATERIAL.
Don't beat up Trump for that? What we do or don't beat up Trump for will depend on what is done about the uranium. Going into Iran and blowing it to smithereens, as he has both tried to do and still threatens to do, is obviously not the strategy for success.
Trump is berated for tearing up JCPOA and I ask that we drop the complaint about it. I have lots of complaints about Trump and he can still screw up by not getting the uranium. Lets hope he cares. He already has looted the area for personal gifts and oil interests. Maybe nuclear armageddon is not his worry. Also be sure that the mullah will keep trying to make the bomb.
Because the goal of the Iranian regime is to survive, at any cost, by any means necessary, there are a few certainties:
1) They will comply with agreements only as long as it suits their goals of ultimately destroying both Israel and the United States. They have never complied with any agreement they have made. Ever.
2) Their timeline is far longer than the current US administration's. They will wait out the end of the Trump administration, until, because of their (and Qatar's) propaganda war on Israel, Iran and their proxies can take Israel out, without the United States supplying Israel with the weapons they need to survive. Once Israel is defeated, the United States will be all that much easier.
3) Because we did not defeat / break the will of their regime, the unfortunate citizens of Iran and the rest of the world will continue to suffer every ill that Iran can inflict upon them.
Trump should not have negotiated an agreement with people who will never honor it and who want to kill you. You kill them first and when you have broken their will to fight, you force meaningful change to their society. We did it to Germany and Japan. We had the opportunity to do it here. But didn't.
I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
Amen to that! I’m so disappointed in Trump. He has sold out. God help us.
"Trump should not have negotiated an agreement with people who will never honor it and who want to kill you. You kill them first and when you have broken their will to fight, you force meaningful change to their society. We did it to Germany and Japan. We had the opportunity to do it here. But didn't."
You write absolute truth! This is the core of the problem. We all know it! What is the matter with this administration, with Kushner, with Witkoff and with Trump? You cannot negotiate anything with people who are determined to kill you! They hate Israel and America.
And I heard way too much talk from Trump about Hamas that never happened. Israel's war was almost finished in GAZA and Trump stopped it. He's going to do the same with Iran and the people will be even worse off. Then he'll say he won.
The author's standard is clear — no settlement should be accepted unless the enriched uranium is physically removed and verified. This is exactly where I have little confidence in Trump. His pattern is declaring victory before objectives are secured, and his first-term Iran policy — maximum pressure abandoned for a photo-op deal that never came — suggests he is far more likely to accept a ceasefire that looks like victory than to hold the line until the material is actually off the board.
And it doesn’t even look like victory. It looks like capitulation.
He was ready to bomb them out of existence, until the other Islamic countries interceded on Iran's behalf. Perhaps it was in exchange for their joining the Abraham accords, but I'm very skeptical.
This is the best piece of writing on the subject I have ever read. It states the case quite clearly.
This is important posting . The removal of enriched uranium is condition sine qua non for any 'deal' with Iran. Unfortunately such a deal in and of itself does not guarantee that Iran won't restart the program again. It only postpones the restart for a number of years, maybe even decades In the end, to resolve this issue once and for all this murderous Iranian regime has to be replaced and buried along with ideology it represents I believe majority of Iranian population is ripe for a change and powers that be should do everything to facilitate it.
You are 100% right!!
General Gallant, thank you for an excellent article. I think you have done a service by focusing everyone's attention on the enriched uranium itself. Whatever happens in the negotiations, that is the issue people should be watching most closely.
I agree that removing or neutralizing that stockpile would represent a major setback for Iran's nuclear ambitions. Let's see how this ultimately plays out. I have learned never to judge Trump until the final result is in. Time and again he has surprised both his critics and his supporters. If anyone understands how to negotiate from a position of strength and secure favorable terms, it is Trump.
Whether this deal proves stronger than those of the past remains to be seen, but I appreciate your reminder of what the real benchmark for success should be.
Plausible, and articulate, and all in the realm of common sense. But, I have no doubts that Mossad is well on the path to do what's necessary. Don't you?
As far as I know--that's the objective Trump claims he wants. Along with the opening of the Strait--and I wish-- he included the end of their missile program, as he said originally. Israel is being barraged by Hezbollah!
What about that? I guess the Groypers and other bigots are happy that seems to be "on the back burner"?
But the "elephant in the room" is that-- if ONE cell of this stage 4 cancer is left-- which is the IRGC--it will regroup as an eventuality.
Both objectives are difficult for Trump who promised "no new wars" "No boots on the ground", etc.
Additionally he is facing the midterms with the specter of the high gas prices and inflation looming. The media believes Iran's version and misleads the American public--which is prone to isolationism 62% think this war was "of choice".
I assume what I just described is what makes him so eager for "a deal". The constant declarations of we are "almost there"--seem to be a ploy to feed red meat to the lions (and the Stockmarket that hates uncertainty).
It brings to mind an old song with these lyrics: "Then along came Jones...and then...and then..asks the chorus?"
The public is left with a constant tease.
I strongly doubt that Trump can perform the miracle of a "deal" that ensures the necessary objective will ever happen --in the way it has to. The main site of the cancer is the IRGC and it must be excised.
Yoav Gallant, former Defence Minister of Israel says that the RAW MATERIAL ie URANIUM, must be removed. This is imperative ..
👍
Mister Gallant is right in his important analysis.
With that it’s urgent that the ‘Iranian’ Regime itself has to be removed meaning eliminated.
The righteous Kingdom has to be restored for the sake of Iran, Israel, the Middle-East and the entire world.
Then the enriched uranium will be transferred or destroyed and no longer be a threat.
Then the Iranian people will breathe, dance, live in their country as free people.
Then Iran and Israel will celebrate.
And all who love life will join them.
Here’s the element everyone forgets…..Trump…. Nothing is up to Bibi or Israel. Israel can still wage its shadow war, but Trump will make the deal he wants. Pretend he won. Say he’s a hero. And others will suffer for his delusion.
It appears the political will in the US to continue the war is exhausted, with high oil prices and the mid-term elections coming soon. The Democrats have been opposed to this joint US/Israeli operation from the start. Remember, there was no Congressional War Powers Resolution authorizing military action. (Maybe that was justified for reasons of operational security, I don't know) So, Trump's priority now is, understandably, to get the Strait open.
Looking ahead several years, after tankers are again transiting the Gulf, there may be trends and opportunities that can change the current equation:
*Expansion of existing and construction of new Strait of Hormuz oil by-pass pipelines, and increase in worldwide oil and natural gas development
*The prospect of eventual alternate invasion and occupation forces into critical parts of Iran (and Yemen). Composed of Troops from now-alienated Gulf nations and East African Countries,
*Increased awareness of the threat of Islamization of the West, leading to repatriation of Radical Islamists and their families back to their country of origin.
Thank you for this explanation, General Yoav Gallant. It is a fine line we are treading with success in mind.
I would like you to know that I have supported you all the way through since October 7, respecting what appeared to me to be calm dignity and common sense with which you navigated the political maelstrom you were forced into. It would be good to see you as leader of the country.
" Iran cannot retain usable control over the enriched uranium stockpile. No settlement, ceasefire, or declaration should be accepted unless the material is accounted for and removed from Iran’s control."
Trump's capitulation through the MOU has determined the outcome: "the enriched uranium remains in Iranian hands" plus it gets billions to reconstruct its nuclear problem, its missile program, and its proxies.
As the French expression so aptly sums up the consequence, "Nous sommes tout fourre."