Wow what an extremely well thought out and well written essay. The danger of partisanship reaches deep. We have entered a time of such hatred between political parties that by the time something does change the next group coming in is more interested in revenge then achieving anything positive for the nation. When the executive branch has such control over Justice that they use them as attack dogs to go after anyone and everyone not many people are willing to remain in government or civil service if they're forced to spend more time defending themselves then running implementing and managing their departments. If we ever hope to go back to a time of having strategic plans that go beyond the current president, people need to realize that there are things bigger than their angers and fear and personal beliefs.
Ask Benito, Adolf, Fidel and Vladimir how things turned out. In order for them to consolidate and hold power they have to destroy their people and their economies. Eventually the house of cards collapses.
Interesting configuration of events and their implication. The MOA was signed June 17th. It calls for a 60 day period of negotiations, which expires Aug. 16th. The mid-terms will take place Nov. 3rd., 189 days after June 17th, and 79 days after Aug 16th.
Item 1 of MOU: 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
Item 3 of MOU: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
and
Item 13 of MOU: After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
Items 10 and 11 deal with sanctions relief for Iran. According to Item 13, negotiations only start on a final Deal if and only if 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 are fulfilled by the US.
Iran now only needs to have Hezbollah fire rockets, drones, and RPGs at the IDF and Israeli communities to provoke two responses. The first is worldwide condemnation of Israel for its non-stop, unprovoked aggression against innocent Lebanese people (just as its attacks on Hamas fighters are framed as random violence inflicted on innocent Gazan civilians), thus further alienating support of Israel among the populace. This popular antipathy to Israel will translate into shaping voting positions of successful office seekers. It especially targets Trump's support of Israel because media influencers, Dems, and right wing Republicans will remind him that Israel is to blame when negotiations fail.
The second is it provides Iran with justification to stall negotiations leaving an unpopular Trump / Republican policy to continue alienating the electorate. Not only does the unpopularity of the Iran conflict align with the Dems ideological position on the war and Israel, it also allows them to stoke and exploit this conflict to their advantage at the polls.
As noted at the outset, despite the 60 day period of negotiations, the real timeline for maneuverability by the US is 189 days from the signing to remove the Iran conflict from public consciousness. However, it will only become a non-issue if negotiations are completed well before the elections.
For that to happen, according to the MOU, the US must fulfill its obligations of sanction relief and getting Israel to halt any defensive action against Hezbollah attacks. In reality there are only 79 days from the negotiation expiry date to the elections during which time Iran can exploit the terms and conditions of the MOU to stop the US from pressuring them on the nuclear file and intensify public discontent with the Republicans to permanently weaken Trump.
As we have already seen, Iran started exploiting this technical loophole to its political advantage when it cancelled the start of the negotiations in Switzerland this weekend on the pretext Israel — a non-signatory — violated the MOU.
At the risk of sounding snarky, dictatorships are all about power and democracies are all about politics. It's fairly obvious that in a competition, power will prevail over consensus, if a political entity were capable of it at all. Dictatorships need not bother.
The time line only exists because of the different systems; an effect rather than a cause. One is in a marathon because it owns the whole deal, the other is a sprint because it must earn its moment to lead by consent, intended to be brief.
Again, by virtue of definition, dictatorship destroys freedom while democracy is charged with defending it. Which is easier?
In an accelerated, ever shrinking world, the two systems are colliding constantly and the simple, obvious fact is that they are utterly incompatible. Unless we can find a way to get out of and stay out of each other's way, we'll simply battle to the death. There's no compromise between freedom and servitude.
Vanessa .. clear and articulate. Thank you. How it unfolds, remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, Israel will continue to ensure its safety and security.
Excellent essay. Democracy is clumsy, and we need leaders like Churchill, Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Lincoln, to make it work. I don’t see them in the 21st C, but we can hope.
Wow what an extremely well thought out and well written essay. The danger of partisanship reaches deep. We have entered a time of such hatred between political parties that by the time something does change the next group coming in is more interested in revenge then achieving anything positive for the nation. When the executive branch has such control over Justice that they use them as attack dogs to go after anyone and everyone not many people are willing to remain in government or civil service if they're forced to spend more time defending themselves then running implementing and managing their departments. If we ever hope to go back to a time of having strategic plans that go beyond the current president, people need to realize that there are things bigger than their angers and fear and personal beliefs.
Dictators have an advantage?
Ask Benito, Adolf, Fidel and Vladimir how things turned out. In order for them to consolidate and hold power they have to destroy their people and their economies. Eventually the house of cards collapses.
Interesting configuration of events and their implication. The MOA was signed June 17th. It calls for a 60 day period of negotiations, which expires Aug. 16th. The mid-terms will take place Nov. 3rd., 189 days after June 17th, and 79 days after Aug 16th.
Item 1 of MOU: 1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
Item 3 of MOU: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America commit to negotiating and achieving the final Deal, in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
and
Item 13 of MOU: After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America will start negotiations regarding the final Deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
Items 10 and 11 deal with sanctions relief for Iran. According to Item 13, negotiations only start on a final Deal if and only if 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 are fulfilled by the US.
Iran now only needs to have Hezbollah fire rockets, drones, and RPGs at the IDF and Israeli communities to provoke two responses. The first is worldwide condemnation of Israel for its non-stop, unprovoked aggression against innocent Lebanese people (just as its attacks on Hamas fighters are framed as random violence inflicted on innocent Gazan civilians), thus further alienating support of Israel among the populace. This popular antipathy to Israel will translate into shaping voting positions of successful office seekers. It especially targets Trump's support of Israel because media influencers, Dems, and right wing Republicans will remind him that Israel is to blame when negotiations fail.
The second is it provides Iran with justification to stall negotiations leaving an unpopular Trump / Republican policy to continue alienating the electorate. Not only does the unpopularity of the Iran conflict align with the Dems ideological position on the war and Israel, it also allows them to stoke and exploit this conflict to their advantage at the polls.
As noted at the outset, despite the 60 day period of negotiations, the real timeline for maneuverability by the US is 189 days from the signing to remove the Iran conflict from public consciousness. However, it will only become a non-issue if negotiations are completed well before the elections.
For that to happen, according to the MOU, the US must fulfill its obligations of sanction relief and getting Israel to halt any defensive action against Hezbollah attacks. In reality there are only 79 days from the negotiation expiry date to the elections during which time Iran can exploit the terms and conditions of the MOU to stop the US from pressuring them on the nuclear file and intensify public discontent with the Republicans to permanently weaken Trump.
As we have already seen, Iran started exploiting this technical loophole to its political advantage when it cancelled the start of the negotiations in Switzerland this weekend on the pretext Israel — a non-signatory — violated the MOU.
`
At the risk of sounding snarky, dictatorships are all about power and democracies are all about politics. It's fairly obvious that in a competition, power will prevail over consensus, if a political entity were capable of it at all. Dictatorships need not bother.
The time line only exists because of the different systems; an effect rather than a cause. One is in a marathon because it owns the whole deal, the other is a sprint because it must earn its moment to lead by consent, intended to be brief.
Again, by virtue of definition, dictatorship destroys freedom while democracy is charged with defending it. Which is easier?
In an accelerated, ever shrinking world, the two systems are colliding constantly and the simple, obvious fact is that they are utterly incompatible. Unless we can find a way to get out of and stay out of each other's way, we'll simply battle to the death. There's no compromise between freedom and servitude.
Vanessa .. clear and articulate. Thank you. How it unfolds, remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure, Israel will continue to ensure its safety and security.
Excellent essay. Democracy is clumsy, and we need leaders like Churchill, Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Lincoln, to make it work. I don’t see them in the 21st C, but we can hope.