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This is a guest essay by Nachum Kaplan, a longtime journalist and commentator who writes the newsletter, “Moral Clarity.”
You can also listen to the podcast version of this essay on Apple Podcasts, YouTube Music, YouTube, and Spotify.
Israel’s nuclear deterrent is the worst-kept secret in international politics.
Jerusalem neither confirms or denies whether it has nuclear weapons, but everyone knows they do and quietly calculates their behavior around it.
This strategic ambiguity is intentional. Israel’s nuclear capability was never intended to be a bargaining chip, a diplomatic talking point, or a symbol of national virility. It was designed as a silent insurance policy against catastrophic scenarios in which conventional restraint, international guarantees, and moral appeals had failed. Jerusalem’s nuclear arsenal make clear that “Never Again” is not a plea to others, but a statement of intent.
Far from being a relic of paranoia or a vestige of Cold War excess, Israel’s nuclear weapons are as relevant as ever for a small, exposed state born into existential war, surrounded by enemies who have repeatedly promised its annihilation — and occasionally tried to deliver on that promise. Israel’s bomb was and still is always about survival.
Israel’s nuclear doctrine was born from a fact that Israel is a small state with almost no strategic depth. Israel’s smallness is something that much of the world still fails to grasp. It does not have oceans, or the option of losing a war and regrouping. A single decisive defeat would not mean occupation or regime change, but extinction.
This reality was obvious to the modern State of Israel’s founding generation. The country’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, understood that conventional deterrence alone was insufficient in a region where mass armies, ideological hatred, religious fanaticism, and demographic asymmetry converged around Israel.
Israel faced adversaries who did not want land or leverage, but to erase the Jewish state and its people. This matters. Deterrence against conquest is one thing. Deterrence against annihilation is another.
Thus, from the 1950s onward, Israel pursued a nuclear option as an insurance policy against the worst imaginable scenario: a coordinated Arab victory that would overwhelm Israeli defenses and leave no path to survival.
Israel quietly partnered with France — then fighting Islamist and anti-colonialist insurgencies in Algeria and sympathetic to Israel’s strategic predicament — to construct a nuclear reactor at Dimona in the Negev desert. Officially described as a textile plant, Dimona produces plutonium. There were no tests, no announcements, and no doctrinal manifestos. The program advanced under layers of secrecy, compartmentalization, and civilian oversight.
When Washington eventually discovered Dimona, Jerusalem did not deny its existence — but it did refuse to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It refused not out of contempt for arms control, but because it could not outsource its survival to international regimes that had just failed the Jewish People on an unprecedented scale.
The bomb was not meant to be used. It was meant to be known — quietly.
Israel’s policy of nuclear opacity (often described with the evasive phrase “We will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East.”) is among the most carefully constructed doctrines in modern statecraft. It allows Israel to reap the benefits of deterrence without triggering the costs of open declaration. No tests, parades, threats, or speeches about sacred missions or civilizational destiny, just silence.
This ambiguity deters existential attack by adversaries who cannot be certain how far Israel would go if cornered. It also reassures allies who prefer not to confront uncomfortable realities. It avoids provoking formal nuclear arms races or international sanctions regimes that might have followed an explicit declaration.
Most importantly, it keeps the bomb out of domestic politics. While some Far-Right Israeli politicians make stupid comments from time to time, Israel is generally very disciplined about not mythologizing its nuclear capability. It is not a nationalist fetish or symbol of pride. It is a last resort and treated with the seriousness and restraint such a weapon demands. Contrast this with regimes that announce their nuclear ambitions precisely because they crave status, legitimacy, and intimidation capacity.
There was one moment — just one — when Israel’s nuclear deterrent moved from abstraction to terrifying proximity. It came in October 1973. That year, on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, Egyptian and Syrian forces launched a coordinated surprise attack designed break Israel. The timing was deliberate, the scale unprecedented, and the intent was unmistakable. This was not another round of border skirmishes but an attempt, by force, to reverse Israel’s victory in the 1948 First Arab–Israeli War.
In the Yom Kippur War’s opening days, Israel reeled. The Bar-Lev Line, a chain of Israeli fortifications along the Suez Canal that was considered impenetrable by the Israeli military, collapsed with shocking speed. Egyptian forces crossed the canal in strength. Syrian armor surged across the Golan Heights in Israel’s north and came dangerously close to the Galilee. Israeli aircraft were lost at rates not seen before or since. Ammunition stocks dwindled. Reserves mobilized in chaos. Casualty lists lengthened hourly.
For a brief and terrifying window, Israel’s leaders confronted the scenario the nuclear program had been built to address: the possibility of decisive conventional defeat. Declassified accounts and credible historical research indicate that Israel assembled nuclear weapons and placed delivery systems on alert. The initial plan was to explode one over the ocean as a display of deterrent force. It was a desperate signal that Israel was approaching the end of its conventional options.
This was not nuclear brinkmanship in the Cold War sense, but true desperation. Israel was staring into the abyss it had always feared: an overwhelming conventional defeat. The signaling worked. The U.S. caught wind of these conversations within hours and launched a huge resupply effort that helped Israel turn the war’s tide. The nuclear weapons were never used and Israel quietly returned them to storage.
Given Israel does not even acknowledge having nuclear weapons, it does not publish numbers, issue fact sheets, or correct estimates. Yet decades of intelligence assessments, fissile material calculations, and delivery system analysis converge on a reasonably stable picture.
Israel is believed to possess between 80 and 200 nuclear warheads, with lower figure generally deemed more accurate. Israel is also believed to possess sufficient fissile material to produce as many as 400 nuclear warheads. These are not city-busting megaton weapons designed for Cold War saturation bombing, but smaller tactical nuclear weapons designed to strike targets uncomfortably close to home or decimate opposition battlefields.
As for delivery systems, Israel has quietly built a robust, redundant triad, meaning it can launch from air, land, or sea, which all but guarantee Israel can respond no matter how hard it is hit, including in the event of a nuclear attack.
Aircraft provide flexibility and signaling. Medium- and long-range ballistic missiles (most notably the Jericho series) provide reach and survivability. Most critically, submarine-launched cruise missiles provide a second-strike capability that ensures no adversary could eliminate Israel’s deterrent in a first blow.
Israel does not subscribe to classic Cold War doctrines of mutually assured destruction, although it might integrate such thinking into its doctrine if a regional rival such as Iran acquired nuclear weapons. The Jewish state does not seek parity with other powers. Its nuclear posture is fundamentally asymmetric, which is why it works so hard to prevent its enemies from attaining nuclear weapons with attacks on countries such as Iraq in 1981 and, more recently, Iran.
The doctrine is simple: Israel will never initiate nuclear war, but it will never allow itself to be destroyed.
Israel’s deterrent is not about deterring limited conflict, proxy warfare, or fighting terrorism. It is a doomsday failsafe aimed at deterring scenarios in which multiple conventional defeats, chemical or biological weapons, or overwhelming assaults threaten national survival. It exists precisely because Israel has no margin for catastrophic error.
It is fashionable for Israel’s many critics to argue that Israel’s nuclear capability destabilizes the region, but these people have no idea what they are talking about. What makes the Middle East is unstable is ideological regimes, zero-sum politics, honor cultures, and many states’ persistent refusal to accept Jewish sovereignty in any form. Israel’s bomb did not create these conditions; it is a response to them.
Consider the counterfactual: Without a nuclear deterrent, Israel would have faced repeated attempts at total war well into the 1980s and 1990s. Arab states have greater manpower, decent equipment and, at various moments, the political will to try again to destroy Israel. Israel’s military superiority is greater now than it was then as we have seen over the past two years.
Israel’s nuclear deterrence froze the conflict at lower levels of intensity. It forced Israel’s enemies to recalibrate — from annihilation to attrition, from invasion to proxy warfare, from armies to terrorists.
Jerusalem has one of the most moral nuclear postures ever constructed, which is why it has never resorted to them despite being in constant conflict. It is defensive, restrained, and non-proliferative. Israel has the bomb because it lives in a world where threats of genocide are not metaphorical and annihilationist rhetoric is mainstream among its foes.
Israel’s nuclear deterrent is not a threat to humanity, as 50-plus years of non-use proves. It is a stark warning to those who dream of finishing what history failed to accomplish.
While Europe and Canada strugglewith deindustrialization, energy dependency, and demographic stagnation, Israel has been quietly building one of the most formidable small-nation portfolios on earth.
Militarily, it operates technology its critics can't match. Cyber, drone warfare, missile defense — Israel isn't catching up to anyone; others are catching up to it.
Economically, its GDP per capita now rivals major European economies, driven by a tech sector that produces more Nasdaq-listed companies per capita than any nation outside the US. That's not luck — that's compounding investment in human capital over decades.
The diplomatic friction with Europe and Canada is real, but largely irrelevant to Israel's trajectory. Trade diversifies, alliances shift, and nations that build real capacity outlast the ones that substitute rhetoric for results.
Critics make noise. Israel makes progress.
The gap isn't closing — it's widening.
One million jews will make Aliya from those countries and it will surely continue the brain drain to Israel from long time enemies of Jews.
"Most critically, submarine-launched cruise missiles provide a second-strike capability that ensures no adversary could eliminate Israel’s deterrent in a first blow."
That may have changed. The last Dolphin air independent engine submarine the "Drakon" that was built in Germany like all Israeli navy subs, was redesigned at the last minute with a much larger "sail" - some observers believe this design change might allow for vertically launched missiles instead of the Popeye cruise missiles sent through the Dolphin's 650 mm wide tubes. That would mean a much longer range and thus being able to be launched much closer to home. Speculation at this point
Israel has (3) more on order in the new Dakar Class to replace the oldest three subs. Those might have vertical launch capability.