Hamas just admitted defeat.
The terror group’s attempts to rebrand this moment as a “strategic pause” cannot mask the reality: They are running out of options.
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If you were paying attention this week, Hamas’ leadership signaled what many already suspected but few in their ranks would dare to admit: They are losing.
After months of escalating rhetoric and devastating losses, Hamas is now scrambling to negotiate ceasefires, broker prisoner swaps, and secure aid — all while attempting to save face.
Their latest moves reveal an organization that is no longer dictating terms, but rather reacting to the relentless pressure imposed by Israel’s military operations and international diplomacy.
For years, Hamas positioned itself as the unyielding force of Palestinian “resistance,” boasting that it would overwhelm Israel militarily and politically. But recent developments suggest otherwise.
This week, the 23-day-old truce — only halfway through its first stage — came under immense strain following Hamas’ announcement that it was pausing the hostage releases.
Then, Hamas agreed to release Israeli hostages, despite earlier grandstanding about never compromising. If Hamas were truly in a position of strength, they would not be negotiating under Israel’s terms; they would be dictating them.
What’s more, several families of Israeli hostages involved in the negotiations understand from conversations with Israeli officials that there is a certain possibility that six live hostages will be released in one go as early as next week, instead of in two separate moves as part of Phase 1 of the deal.
This coming Saturday, three living hostages are expected to be released, and then six living hostages are scheduled to be released within a two-week period; however, depending on the condition of the hostages who recently returned to Israel, the understanding is emerging that these two weeks could be critical, and therefore the pressure is to expedite Phase 1 of the deal.
At the same time, Israel is preparing an action plan in case the ceasefire fails, and a situation assessment discussion was held today at the Southern Command with the participation of the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, and the head of the Shin Bet (one of Israel’s primary intelligence agencies).
In assessing the situation, they discussed approving the operational plans prepared by the Southern Command for continuing the fighting in the Gaza Strip in the event that the negotiations collapse. The Prime Minister approved the most extensive of all the steps to continue fighting as long as necessary, including the evacuation of the Palestinian population from a number of locations, military maneuvers, and airstrikes.
According to sources in Israel, under the new U.S. presidential administration, there are fewer restrictions on Israel. As such, if Israel wishes, it can reduce humanitarian aid, which is very important to Hamas, and Israel does not have an arms limit as imposed on it by the Biden administration.
Sources in Hamas claimed this week that the intelligence service of Hamas’ military wing and the senior leadership ordered the organization’s political and military leaders to stop using mobile phones and to physically hide, “to prevent them from being tracked,” according to a Saudi newspaper report.
This came after U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement earlier this week that he is giving Hamas an ultimatum to release the hostages by 12:00 noon on Saturday. It was not just a media statement; it was a strategic move aimed at changing the rules of the game and providing Israel with unprecedented political, military, and legal backing.
Trump, who has transformed the principles of the “Art of the Deal” into political methodology, operates from a worldview of creating maximum pressure and making extreme demands in order to gain an advantage in negotiations. This ultimatum is much more than a threat to Hamas; it is a signal to Israel, its allies, and the entire world that Trump’s America is playing on a field with its own rules.
Another critical dimension of this ultimatum is the legal backing of the International Criminal Court in The Hague. In the background, it appears that the U.S. has already warned the chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, against attempting to issue arrest warrants against senior Israeli officials, and has even threatened to impose personal sanctions against him, including freezing assets and banning him from entering the United States.
This is an unequivocal message that the American administration will not allow Israel to become a scapegoat of the international legal system, and that any attempt to prosecute Israeli officials will be met with a harsh response from America.
Hamas, meanwhile, faces a difficult dilemma: If it meets the demand and releases the hostages, it will be seen as having caved in to American pressure, which could undermine its political and military standing. If it refuses, it risks a large-scale Israeli attack, which will be carried out with American backing.
Hence Hamas’ insistence on maintaining a ceasefire, while simultaneously accusing Israel of fabricated violations — both signs of desperation. They have gone from launching rockets with impunity to pleading with Egypt and Qatar to sustain a fragile truce. The Hamas leadership, once arrogant and aggressive, is now reduced to diplomatic maneuvers that betray their underlying weakness.
At the same time, Hamas called for three days of “solidarity marches” — in protest of Trump’s plan for an American takeover of the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of all its residents. In its statement, Hamas called on Palestinians and their supporters around the world to hold protest marches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, “against the plans to uproot our Palestinian people” — from continuing to serve as Hamas’ jihadist human shields, the subtext said.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Palestinians are saying they “don’t want Hamas to control Gaza — and we don't want to hear the word ‘resistance’ anymore.”1
Since the Hamas-led October 7th attacks and kidnappings, Israel has methodically dismantled Hamas’ terror infrastructure in Gaza. Key leaders and commanders have been eliminated, stockpiles of weapons destroyed, and tunnel networks collapsed. Hamas’ ability to wage war has been significantly degraded, and its fighters are struggling to regroup. As an organized military apparatus, Hamas is destroyed and, for the last few months, it has been operating in guerrilla formats.
But perhaps the most significant damage is psychological. The people of Gaza — who were forced to live under Hamas’ oppressive rule — are beginning to realize that their so-called protectors have brought them nothing but destruction. Internationally, Hamas’ standing has also taken a hit, with even some traditional supporters questioning their tactics and long-term viability.
The broader consequences of Hamas’ rule are catastrophic. Gaza faces near-total devastation, with an estimated $40 billion required for reconstruction. Its population, displaced and impoverished, lives under dire conditions.
Israel now has the opportunity to press its advantage. By maintaining a firm stance, ensuring security measures are not relaxed prematurely, and continuing to neutralize Hamas’ remaining capabilities, Israel can solidify this moment as a turning point. The pressure must remain until Hamas has no choice but to accept a long-term reality where its military ambitions are permanently curtailed.
Hamas’ attempts to rebrand this moment as a “strategic pause” cannot mask the reality: They are running out of options. Their shift from threats to negotiation, from aggression to defensiveness, is not a tactical maneuver; it is an admission of defeat.
Israel must ensure that this defeat is not temporary, but decisive. Hamas is learning the hard way that terrorism has consequences. Now is the time to ensure they never rise again.
“.מהמחסות לכיכרות ובפנים גלויות: החזרה של משטרת חמאס ומה היא מסמלת” Ynet News.
Hamas may be on the way to its end, but antisemitism and empathy for Hamas and the terrorists has increased. Those who wear the Arafat rag anywhere on the bodies, or wrapping the infants in that shmatta (rag) are everywhere. And most of those doing so, are not from the Middle East!!
I dont know if Trump's posture will succeed but it's better than the Biden posture of "dont upset then. They may escalate."