Good analysis, Joshua. No pearl clutching, wait and see what is the real objective from the follower of his The Art of the Deal. BTW, Trump already voiced that he understands that “Iranian Deal” is bs.
Let me cut to the chase. An increasingly erratic and aging president, first threatening genocide and then accepting a two-week cease fire, has betrayed the Iranian people and guaranteed further war and bloodshed. Repression and executions will continue. Uranium enrichment remains safe. Ballistic missiles and drones remain protected. Above all, the Iranian regime remains intact. More secure than Trump’s presidency. The Democrats’ knives are out, sharper than ever including impeachment and removal by the 25th amendment. And the Republican caucus is getting nervous with the midterms fast approaching and Trump’s popularity continuing to drop like the Rosetta Stone from the Eiffel Tower. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance is continuing to consult his wife about the color of the drapes. No American with serious negotiating chops will be dealing with the Iranians. They are masters of lying and deception. This is the Mideast: not New Jersey, Not New York, not Florida and certainly not Ohio. Anyone remotely familiar with Islam knows that lying is a virtue. And the Iranian regime is very good at it. In betraying the Iranian people, the way Trump has betrayed the Afghan people, he has missed a golden opportunity to reorder the Mideast, not only for Israel, but also for the Gulf States and for the future of peace and prosperity and to free 90 million, brave, creative, highly educated and pro-Western, pro-America and pro-Israel people. That opportunity is not likely to come within our lifetimes. If ever. Trump chose war to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability, its support for global terrorism, and the destruction of its vast arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, supported by the Axis of Evil: Russia, China and North Korea. The only way to achieve these goals was through regime change. That is now clearly off the table. And Israel, the Gulf States, Europe, and the United States, and the rest of the world will pay the price. Maybe not immediately, but sooner rather than later. As Trump did with the Gaza War and Hamas, he has now done with the mullahs and the IRGC in Iran: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And that will be his legacy to his future detriment and ours. Ask not for whom TACO Tuesday comes. It has come for all of us.
I think maybe we wait and watch and see. This is FAR from over and your scenario is not yet set in stone. How many times over the past year have we seen twists and turns and thought Trump was abandoning goals and leaving Israel to twist in the wind? Several times. Let this play out.
I have no crystal ball, of course. And, like everyone else, I’ll have to just wait and see. However, the regime in Tehran lies as naturally as it breathes, murders it’s people, fires missiles, enriches uranium, and supports global terrorism.
That is true. But in their eyes they won. They faced the firepower of the most formidable Air Force in history and perhaps the second, third or fourth most lethal Air Force in the world, sustained thousands of bombings and, in their eyes, remained standing to go toe to toe with the U.S. in negotiations. And they have preserved their regime. This for them is a win.
Ayatollah Khomeini definitely doesn't think they won. He doesn't think anything. Nor do the half dozen or so mullahs who followed him. Who cares if Iran thinks they won. If they think this is what winning looks like, let them keep winning by continuing to suffer leaders killed, military degraded, and loss of support from most all Muslim nations.
They wait til December when Iran’s best benefactors, the Democrats, run both Houses and begin their worldwide religious war with Israel feeling the brunt. This is just another painful lesson that Israel must cut the chord with the U.S. when it matters most.
Yes, I think/hope this is all well understood by current US leadership and is part of US strategy to mislead the enemy. The ME continues to be deconstructed/reconstructed. New alliances are being forged, and the Iranian regime and its infrastructure are substantially weakened. I would call this real change and progress. It’s a big start, but this is not over.
You are wrong, Mr Rubin. The ceasefire terms are very specific when they include: The removal of ALL enriched Uranium and yellow cake, and the demonstrable destruction of ALL Enrichment Centrifuges. If Iran does not comply by rendering all Uranium within two weeks, and showing the Centrifuges, the bombing will start again, exactly as the Americans and President Trump have said. The first month of this War is just the beginning: Uranium, Centrifuges, or the complete dismantling of Iran will follow by Bombing.
I would be happy to be proven wrong, Dan. But I’m skeptical that I will be. A long time ago there was a Senator from Vermont named George Aiken. A critic of the Vietnam War, his solution was for the U.S. to declare victory and leave. I believe that is President Trump’s strategy. I have reviewed the 10-point plan that is the basis for the ceasefire and negotiations. I can see why the Iranian government, which at the end of the day, will continue to plague the Mideast nations and the larger world with help of China, Russia, and North Korea, considers the ceasefire a win. But, to use a well-worn cliché, time will tell.
The Iran Nuclear Program was the main threat. This has been degraded. The threat to Europe and The West, is the Islam Demographic supported from Islamic States. This larger Axis must also now be dealt with. This is a long War, of which the first month was just the start.
We can do infinitely more than duck, Sam. All they can do is chuck a few missiles at Israel and the oil tankers. Have patience. If the terms regarding Uranium and Centrifuges are not met, the bombing restarts. The whole battle order is worked out.
Degraded, perhaps, but not eliminated. Iran will never give up its enriched uranium, which is a stones throw from weapons grade. Related to this fact, it will also never give up its ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Iran continues to control the strait of Hormuz, an international waterway. And it continues to fire missiles at the Gulf States.
We’ll see. The Iranians are now saying that the ceasefire is over if Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, which of course is from where Iran’s Shia proxy Hezbollah continues to bomb Northern Israel. This is the beginning of the policy of gamesmanship that the mullahs are well known for.
Who cares if the desperate remaining mullah leaders in Iran consider the devastation of their air force, air defenses, navy, and significant degradation of their nuclear program to be a "win." If they consider this to be a win, let them enjoy more winning at the hands of Israel and the United States.
They still have their drones and ballistic missiles, which they continue to fire at other countries. And they continue to have their allies to keep them well stocked militarily (Russia, China and North Korea). They also still have their terror proxies: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. So while what you say is true, they are not lacking in lethality, including enriched uranium.
The solution is to take control of the straights of Hormuz and the Iranian oil fields. Continue bombing the leadership of the IRGC and Iranian politicians. What that does is deprive the Regime of oil revenue and without money to pay salaries the lower ranks of the military will desert. The upper echelons of the regime will be gradually killed forcing them to surrender in order to save their own lives and because their soldiers gradually deserting.
We did not go to war to negotiate, we went to war to win. You cannot negotiate successfully with evil. Evil must be destroyed, not negotiated with.
Yes, but ….. the reality is that many Americans today don’t watch/read news and don’t really care about what’s happening beyond their own immediate lives. It’s all about the price of gas and food, and not wanting to connect the dots due to fear, lack of control, insignificance, no real interest in or attempt to understand what’s happening in the world. Living in America can lead to a sense and attitude of entitlement. I finally really understand what my WWII vet dad said post-1973 oil embargo, “Wait until they really can’t get their gas.” Meaning the fist fights at the pump were nothing. It was too big and too unthinkable to really understand at the time. And then there are the masses of asses shooting themselves in the foot who outright reject and demonize anything the current administration does. This administration is like all the others in that it does things right and does things wrong. I’m rooting for the side of bold hutzpah as appeasement and complacency is the kiss of death.
It blows my mind how many people are mentally controlled over gas prices at the pump . The economics can suck them dry in other areas without a whisper , but those gas Prices .. people go nuts over an extra 10 bucks on their gas fill. I was like that too , long ago . When I released my emotions from Being shackled by gas prices, it changed my ability to think about politics . Sadly , gas prices are what the politicians fear and will dictate their resolve here .
Joshua, thoughtful analysis, but I’ll be honest — I’m disappointed about the ceasefire. I was hoping the pressure would continue and that further attacks on infrastructure would create enough strain among the population that we might actually see the overthrow of this regime. In my view, that is the only real solution. I want to see leadership in Iran that is not Islamist and not committed to this caliphate ideology.
I also find it troubling that Pakistan is involved as a mediator. Pakistan has long played both sides and has its own record of supporting terrorism. I never understand how countries like Pakistan, Qatar, or Turkey are treated as neutral brokers when they are clearly partial and biased.
Still, it is what it is. Perhaps this is simply a pause before the next phase. I doubt Netanyahu will accept any outcome where Iran keeps its nuclear ambitions intact.
Somehow in all of this you missed that Iran's military will now control the Straits, extracting a financial bounty from any ship passing through. Which $$ will surely be used to fund further missile development and regional mayhem. Do I need to remind you that before this war started, the Straits were always treated as international waters with a right of free passage? And just this morning, Trump floated the idea that the US will share in those passage tolls with Iran? I'm surprised any serious evaluation of where things stand today would just pass by this enormous change of events. Clearly, Trump freaked out and caved, calling Iran's 10-point plan (a total non-starter) the basis to finalize a deal. Did you miss that also?
We have to wait and see but if the Gaza situation is a precedent things do not look good. Trump acts but he acts erratically and seemingly for his own purposes. I am not optimistic that when (not if) the regime violates the ceasefire Trump will return to the battle. And when the Democrats take over anything positive that has been achieved for the U.S. Israel or the world will almost certainly be quickly reversed.
This pause, this opening of the sea, may be setting the stage for the hardened heart of [whoever is running Iran] to heedlessly continue pursuing their genocidal dreams, and be utterly crushed. Just a thought.
A comprehensive analysis reveals a prevalent Western misunderstanding of the Middle East. This perspective challenges the notion of misconception, positing that instead, Western actions are primarily driven by economic interests, particularly greed concerning oil resources. Such a viewpoint suggests that strategic decisions are less about genuine comprehension and more about the pursuit of vital commodities. Consequently, the dynamic between the West and the Middle East can be seen as a complex interplay of resource acquisition and geopolitical maneuvering. Understanding these underlying motivations is crucial for a more accurate interpretation of regional interactions.
The Ayattollas and Mullahs
are tyrants who prioritize their self-preservation at the expense of their people and are essentially parasites on the body politic.
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iranian children were reportedly given plastic keys, which were said to promise them entry to paradise if they died in battle. These keys were part of a campaign to encourage young volunteers to clear minefields and participate in dangerous missions, often leading to high casualties among them.
Joshua makes many good points. However, what if Iran is more like North Korea? What happens to the population is of little concern to the IRGC. The article states the "reopening" of the Strait as if it returns to the status quo ante bellum. It's not. Iran collects 'tolls', escorts the shipping and otherwise controls the Strait. AND Iran knows the US will have trouble changing that leverage (otherwise the US already would have done something). Iran is enriching themselves despite the destruction of the war - from increased oil prices. China and Russia have benefited. More oil is being sold in Yuan. The continued belief that Western bombs can "win" is an achilles heal - think Vietnam, Afghanistan, and in most respects, Iraq. Iran is not Venezuela. And it appears that Iran has plenty of leverage in any negotiations - before the war it was nuclear capabilities, drones, missiles and now they have control of the Strait to their advantage. Iran has made no concessions and the US was required to add the opening of the Strait (not the return to the international status of the Strait) to its demands. I just don't see how the US has not created a disaster here (for Israel and the world). Pleas to be patient seem to be like asking the court to look at the Emperor's new clothes.
Trump entered this war without a goal, which must be regime change. Nor does he understand the enemy. These aretwp descriptions for sure defeat. I repeat , regime change has to be the main ao o I'm or we will be threatened by Iran again.
What a well-thought-out assessment of the current situation in Iran. Each party and its limitations and strengths are well explored with clinical precision. Probably the best article on many that I've read. The only thing missing is an evaluation of the relationships of the top Israeli leaders and the response of the public in Israel.
Good analysis, Joshua. No pearl clutching, wait and see what is the real objective from the follower of his The Art of the Deal. BTW, Trump already voiced that he understands that “Iranian Deal” is bs.
Let me cut to the chase. An increasingly erratic and aging president, first threatening genocide and then accepting a two-week cease fire, has betrayed the Iranian people and guaranteed further war and bloodshed. Repression and executions will continue. Uranium enrichment remains safe. Ballistic missiles and drones remain protected. Above all, the Iranian regime remains intact. More secure than Trump’s presidency. The Democrats’ knives are out, sharper than ever including impeachment and removal by the 25th amendment. And the Republican caucus is getting nervous with the midterms fast approaching and Trump’s popularity continuing to drop like the Rosetta Stone from the Eiffel Tower. Meanwhile, J.D. Vance is continuing to consult his wife about the color of the drapes. No American with serious negotiating chops will be dealing with the Iranians. They are masters of lying and deception. This is the Mideast: not New Jersey, Not New York, not Florida and certainly not Ohio. Anyone remotely familiar with Islam knows that lying is a virtue. And the Iranian regime is very good at it. In betraying the Iranian people, the way Trump has betrayed the Afghan people, he has missed a golden opportunity to reorder the Mideast, not only for Israel, but also for the Gulf States and for the future of peace and prosperity and to free 90 million, brave, creative, highly educated and pro-Western, pro-America and pro-Israel people. That opportunity is not likely to come within our lifetimes. If ever. Trump chose war to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability, its support for global terrorism, and the destruction of its vast arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, supported by the Axis of Evil: Russia, China and North Korea. The only way to achieve these goals was through regime change. That is now clearly off the table. And Israel, the Gulf States, Europe, and the United States, and the rest of the world will pay the price. Maybe not immediately, but sooner rather than later. As Trump did with the Gaza War and Hamas, he has now done with the mullahs and the IRGC in Iran: snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And that will be his legacy to his future detriment and ours. Ask not for whom TACO Tuesday comes. It has come for all of us.
I think maybe we wait and watch and see. This is FAR from over and your scenario is not yet set in stone. How many times over the past year have we seen twists and turns and thought Trump was abandoning goals and leaving Israel to twist in the wind? Several times. Let this play out.
I have no crystal ball, of course. And, like everyone else, I’ll have to just wait and see. However, the regime in Tehran lies as naturally as it breathes, murders it’s people, fires missiles, enriches uranium, and supports global terrorism.
Only far weaker than they were on February 27th.
That is true. But in their eyes they won. They faced the firepower of the most formidable Air Force in history and perhaps the second, third or fourth most lethal Air Force in the world, sustained thousands of bombings and, in their eyes, remained standing to go toe to toe with the U.S. in negotiations. And they have preserved their regime. This for them is a win.
Ayatollah Khomeini definitely doesn't think they won. He doesn't think anything. Nor do the half dozen or so mullahs who followed him. Who cares if Iran thinks they won. If they think this is what winning looks like, let them keep winning by continuing to suffer leaders killed, military degraded, and loss of support from most all Muslim nations.
They wait til December when Iran’s best benefactors, the Democrats, run both Houses and begin their worldwide religious war with Israel feeling the brunt. This is just another painful lesson that Israel must cut the chord with the U.S. when it matters most.
Yes, I think/hope this is all well understood by current US leadership and is part of US strategy to mislead the enemy. The ME continues to be deconstructed/reconstructed. New alliances are being forged, and the Iranian regime and its infrastructure are substantially weakened. I would call this real change and progress. It’s a big start, but this is not over.
With the exception of support of global terrorism, you have, unfortunately, also described the current US administration.
You are wrong, Mr Rubin. The ceasefire terms are very specific when they include: The removal of ALL enriched Uranium and yellow cake, and the demonstrable destruction of ALL Enrichment Centrifuges. If Iran does not comply by rendering all Uranium within two weeks, and showing the Centrifuges, the bombing will start again, exactly as the Americans and President Trump have said. The first month of this War is just the beginning: Uranium, Centrifuges, or the complete dismantling of Iran will follow by Bombing.
I would be happy to be proven wrong, Dan. But I’m skeptical that I will be. A long time ago there was a Senator from Vermont named George Aiken. A critic of the Vietnam War, his solution was for the U.S. to declare victory and leave. I believe that is President Trump’s strategy. I have reviewed the 10-point plan that is the basis for the ceasefire and negotiations. I can see why the Iranian government, which at the end of the day, will continue to plague the Mideast nations and the larger world with help of China, Russia, and North Korea, considers the ceasefire a win. But, to use a well-worn cliché, time will tell.
The Iran Nuclear Program was the main threat. This has been degraded. The threat to Europe and The West, is the Islam Demographic supported from Islamic States. This larger Axis must also now be dealt with. This is a long War, of which the first month was just the start.
Had them on the ropes then stopped throwing punches. Now all we can do is duck.
We can do infinitely more than duck, Sam. All they can do is chuck a few missiles at Israel and the oil tankers. Have patience. If the terms regarding Uranium and Centrifuges are not met, the bombing restarts. The whole battle order is worked out.
Degraded, perhaps, but not eliminated. Iran will never give up its enriched uranium, which is a stones throw from weapons grade. Related to this fact, it will also never give up its ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Iran continues to control the strait of Hormuz, an international waterway. And it continues to fire missiles at the Gulf States.
Then the bombing will re-start.
We’ll see. The Iranians are now saying that the ceasefire is over if Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, which of course is from where Iran’s Shia proxy Hezbollah continues to bomb Northern Israel. This is the beginning of the policy of gamesmanship that the mullahs are well known for.
Who cares if the desperate remaining mullah leaders in Iran consider the devastation of their air force, air defenses, navy, and significant degradation of their nuclear program to be a "win." If they consider this to be a win, let them enjoy more winning at the hands of Israel and the United States.
Those remaing Mullahs aren’t up for re-election in 24+ months. They’ll be running Iran indefenately.
Like the last 5 or 6 mullah leaders in the past 6 weeks? Indefinitely for them meant less than one week, some less than one day.
and the ideology?
They still have their drones and ballistic missiles, which they continue to fire at other countries. And they continue to have their allies to keep them well stocked militarily (Russia, China and North Korea). They also still have their terror proxies: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. So while what you say is true, they are not lacking in lethality, including enriched uranium.
Much less lethal than they were on February 27th.
The ceasefire terms with Hamas were also specific yet they still have their weapons.
Your reply is more spot on than the author’s jumbled rationalizing of another pure American failure driven by politics
Thank you, Sam.
The solution is to take control of the straights of Hormuz and the Iranian oil fields. Continue bombing the leadership of the IRGC and Iranian politicians. What that does is deprive the Regime of oil revenue and without money to pay salaries the lower ranks of the military will desert. The upper echelons of the regime will be gradually killed forcing them to surrender in order to save their own lives and because their soldiers gradually deserting.
We did not go to war to negotiate, we went to war to win. You cannot negotiate successfully with evil. Evil must be destroyed, not negotiated with.
Yes, but ….. the reality is that many Americans today don’t watch/read news and don’t really care about what’s happening beyond their own immediate lives. It’s all about the price of gas and food, and not wanting to connect the dots due to fear, lack of control, insignificance, no real interest in or attempt to understand what’s happening in the world. Living in America can lead to a sense and attitude of entitlement. I finally really understand what my WWII vet dad said post-1973 oil embargo, “Wait until they really can’t get their gas.” Meaning the fist fights at the pump were nothing. It was too big and too unthinkable to really understand at the time. And then there are the masses of asses shooting themselves in the foot who outright reject and demonize anything the current administration does. This administration is like all the others in that it does things right and does things wrong. I’m rooting for the side of bold hutzpah as appeasement and complacency is the kiss of death.
It blows my mind how many people are mentally controlled over gas prices at the pump . The economics can suck them dry in other areas without a whisper , but those gas Prices .. people go nuts over an extra 10 bucks on their gas fill. I was like that too , long ago . When I released my emotions from Being shackled by gas prices, it changed my ability to think about politics . Sadly , gas prices are what the politicians fear and will dictate their resolve here .
GOD BLESS ISRAEL AND ITS PEOPLE
Excellent essay.
thank you for the incredibly detailed analysis
Joshua, thoughtful analysis, but I’ll be honest — I’m disappointed about the ceasefire. I was hoping the pressure would continue and that further attacks on infrastructure would create enough strain among the population that we might actually see the overthrow of this regime. In my view, that is the only real solution. I want to see leadership in Iran that is not Islamist and not committed to this caliphate ideology.
I also find it troubling that Pakistan is involved as a mediator. Pakistan has long played both sides and has its own record of supporting terrorism. I never understand how countries like Pakistan, Qatar, or Turkey are treated as neutral brokers when they are clearly partial and biased.
Still, it is what it is. Perhaps this is simply a pause before the next phase. I doubt Netanyahu will accept any outcome where Iran keeps its nuclear ambitions intact.
Somehow in all of this you missed that Iran's military will now control the Straits, extracting a financial bounty from any ship passing through. Which $$ will surely be used to fund further missile development and regional mayhem. Do I need to remind you that before this war started, the Straits were always treated as international waters with a right of free passage? And just this morning, Trump floated the idea that the US will share in those passage tolls with Iran? I'm surprised any serious evaluation of where things stand today would just pass by this enormous change of events. Clearly, Trump freaked out and caved, calling Iran's 10-point plan (a total non-starter) the basis to finalize a deal. Did you miss that also?
We have to wait and see but if the Gaza situation is a precedent things do not look good. Trump acts but he acts erratically and seemingly for his own purposes. I am not optimistic that when (not if) the regime violates the ceasefire Trump will return to the battle. And when the Democrats take over anything positive that has been achieved for the U.S. Israel or the world will almost certainly be quickly reversed.
This pause, this opening of the sea, may be setting the stage for the hardened heart of [whoever is running Iran] to heedlessly continue pursuing their genocidal dreams, and be utterly crushed. Just a thought.
A comprehensive analysis reveals a prevalent Western misunderstanding of the Middle East. This perspective challenges the notion of misconception, positing that instead, Western actions are primarily driven by economic interests, particularly greed concerning oil resources. Such a viewpoint suggests that strategic decisions are less about genuine comprehension and more about the pursuit of vital commodities. Consequently, the dynamic between the West and the Middle East can be seen as a complex interplay of resource acquisition and geopolitical maneuvering. Understanding these underlying motivations is crucial for a more accurate interpretation of regional interactions.
The Ayattollas and Mullahs
are tyrants who prioritize their self-preservation at the expense of their people and are essentially parasites on the body politic.
During the Iran-Iraq War, Iranian children were reportedly given plastic keys, which were said to promise them entry to paradise if they died in battle. These keys were part of a campaign to encourage young volunteers to clear minefields and participate in dangerous missions, often leading to high casualties among them.
https://www.jns.org/irans-sickening-use-of-child-soldiers/
Nothing changed since the Iran Iraq war:
https://www.hrw.org/news/2026/03/30/iran-military-stepping-up-child-recruitment
Israel broke the ceasefire immediately, blame israel or stfu
Joshua makes many good points. However, what if Iran is more like North Korea? What happens to the population is of little concern to the IRGC. The article states the "reopening" of the Strait as if it returns to the status quo ante bellum. It's not. Iran collects 'tolls', escorts the shipping and otherwise controls the Strait. AND Iran knows the US will have trouble changing that leverage (otherwise the US already would have done something). Iran is enriching themselves despite the destruction of the war - from increased oil prices. China and Russia have benefited. More oil is being sold in Yuan. The continued belief that Western bombs can "win" is an achilles heal - think Vietnam, Afghanistan, and in most respects, Iraq. Iran is not Venezuela. And it appears that Iran has plenty of leverage in any negotiations - before the war it was nuclear capabilities, drones, missiles and now they have control of the Strait to their advantage. Iran has made no concessions and the US was required to add the opening of the Strait (not the return to the international status of the Strait) to its demands. I just don't see how the US has not created a disaster here (for Israel and the world). Pleas to be patient seem to be like asking the court to look at the Emperor's new clothes.
Love living in these ongoing "operational intermissions" - does great for our psyche, does great for our ability to collectively heal.
Trump entered this war without a goal, which must be regime change. Nor does he understand the enemy. These aretwp descriptions for sure defeat. I repeat , regime change has to be the main ao o I'm or we will be threatened by Iran again.
L
What a well-thought-out assessment of the current situation in Iran. Each party and its limitations and strengths are well explored with clinical precision. Probably the best article on many that I've read. The only thing missing is an evaluation of the relationships of the top Israeli leaders and the response of the public in Israel.