In the Middle East, whatever the Americans say, do the opposite.
After all, a strong Israel is an obstacle on the way to realizing the dreams of the Biden Administration, such as forging a “new” Middle East where Iran is a regional player.
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When it comes to navigating the treacherous waters of Middle Eastern geopolitics, one rule stands out above all others: Whatever the U.S. says, do the opposite.
This axiom is particularly true for Israel, a nation that has learned through painful experience that American advice often serves more to undermine than to support its security and sovereignty.
Already in 1967, the Israelis understood this inconvenient truth, when Israel’s then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan said: “Our American friends offer us money, arms and advice. We take the money, we take the arms, and we decline the advice.”
Since then, an endless parade of American presidents and diplomats have insisted on the viability of a two-state solution. They peddle this fantasy as if it was a panacea, ignoring the inconvenient reality that every concession made by Israel has been met not with peace, but with genocidal, antisemitic terrorism and more maximalist demands.
The U.S. keeps pushing Israel to negotiate with entities that have made it abundantly clear they do not want peace; they want victory, which to them means the eradication of the Jewish state. You know the drill by now: “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free!”
Then there is the absurd pressure from the U.S. for Israel to show “maximum restraint” in the face of terrorist attacks. The message is clear: When Palestinians lob rockets at your schools and homes, just turn the other cheek; and when Hezbollah on your northern border builds an arsenal larger than that of many European countries, just grin and bear it.
According to the American playbook, Israel should prioritize the comfort of its enemies over the safety of its own citizens. Because, you know, nothing says “strong ally” like advising your partner to sit quietly while under attack.
So, forgive Israel for being skeptical when Uncle Sam comes knocking with the latest and greatest plan for peace and stability. We have seen this movie before, and it always ends the same way: with Israel cleaning up the mess while the U.S. moves on to its next foreign policy experiment.
The truth is, Israel’s survival depends on rejecting American prescriptions and charting its own course. The U.S. might mean well, but its track record in the Middle East is a catalog of failures and miscalculations.
In the immediate aftermath of October 7th, for instance, American generals flew to Israel to warn the IDF against a ground incursion into Gaza. They tried to scare the Israelis by “predicting” that the IDF would lose some 20 soldiers in combat per day. The actual number has been less than two.
Since early 2024, the U.S. has been overwhelmingly working to impose a ceasefire in Gaza — politicizing the hostages as a result — instead of allowing Israel to finish off Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Strip. Israel’s unwillingness to prematurely end the war in Gaza seems to have been a major step in the right direction; late last week, Israel’s Kan public broadcaster reported that the IDF said Hamas’ military wing has been defeated and the group is now functioning merely as a guerilla organization.
Since Hezbollah in Lebanon joined the war just a day after the Hamas-led massacres and kidnappings in Israel on October 7th, the U.S. has been trying to construct a “diplomatic solution” to Hezbollah massing on Israel’s northern border, which has led to some 60,000 Israelis being left homeless in their own country in justifiable fear that these Lebanese terrorists will try to reenact the October 7th onslaught.
After more than 11 months of American and French initiatives completely failing to produce any workable solution, Israel has finally taken the situation into its own hands, increasingly decimating Hezbollah throughout Lebanon and even Syria. In less than a month’s time, the achievements have been incredible and even unprecedented:
A Hezbollah missile production facility built inside a mountain in Syria was destroyed by Shaldag, one of the premier Israeli Air Force commando units
The pager and walkie-talkie attacks against Hezbollah operatives that injured thousands of them and rendered some 500 blind in a single day
The targeted assassinations of dozens of Hezbollah’s top brass, most notably its leader since 1992, Hassan Nasrallah, in the heart of Beirut
This is what happens when the U.S. gets out of the way.
In particular, Nasrallah’s elimination was especially noteworthy with regard to the U.S.-Israel relationship. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu deliberately decided against informing U.S. officials about Israel’s plans to move forward with the assassination attempt, in presumption that the Americans would try to “veto” it, muddled by their scurrying attempts to find an “off-ramp” that will first and foremost prevent further escalation in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah — even though “further escalation” bodes well for Israel and not-so-well for Hezbollah.
The U.S. even went as far as trying to announce a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah which could help in a “diplomatic resolution” — totally ignoring that the previous 330-plus days of efforts to reach a “diplomatic resolution” between the two parties were resoundingly unsuccessful.
Speaking to reporters in New York about Israel and Hezbollah last Friday, top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken said: “The choices that all parties make in the coming days will determine which path this region is on, with profound consequences for its people now and possibly for years to come.”
But what about all the choices that the U.S. has made in the Middle East and all the profound consequences that these choices have had on the region’s people for decades, dating back to the 1950s?
For example, over the course of four days in August 1953, newly elected U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower authorized the CIA (alongside the British Secret Intelligence Service) to orchestrate not one but two attempts to destabilize the democratically elected government of Iran.1
The coup transformed Iran’s constitutional monarchy, under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, into a royal dictatorship that was later toppled in a popular revolution in 1979, leading to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s formation and it quickly becoming the Middle East’s chief destabilizer.
As the Shah said in 1979: “If I go, Iran will go, and if Iran goes, the Middle East will go, and great terror will rule the world.”
Instead of acknowledging this unmistakable reality, the U.S. has doubled down on their Iran blunders, culminating in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Brokered under the Obama Administration and reinstituted by President Joe Biden, the deal essentially handed Iran the keys to continue its nuclear ambitions under the guise of moderation and oversight. It lifted sanctions, flooded Tehran with billions of dollars in unfrozen assets, and yet somehow, people are still surprised that Iran continued its destabilizing activities across the Middle East.
Iran did not suddenly become a benevolent player in the region because of this deal. Instead, they used the financial windfall to bolster their proxies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have only grown stronger, undermining U.S. interests and regional stability.
The notion that Iran would adhere to any agreement without pursuing its hegemonic ambitions is laughable. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues its operations unabated, spreading chaos and challenging U.S. allies at every turn, while emboldening Iran and fundamentally shifting the balance of power in the Middle East.
Traditional U.S. allies, like Saudi Arabia and Israel, find themselves in a precarious position, needing to counter an emboldened Iran while questioning the reliability of American support.
Moreover, the Biden Administration’s eagerness to re-enter the JCPOA without demanding stricter conditions or addressing Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for terrorism is nothing short of capitulation. It is a clear signal to Tehran: Keep pushing, and we will keep conceding. This policy of appeasement does not just fail to prevent conflict; it virtually guarantees it by signaling weakness and unwillingness to confront malign behavior.
Last week, an article by the former Ukrainian defense minister was published in The Guardian, in which he pointed out what has already been written before and said by many more important people: The Americans are not providing their Ukrainian allies with the ammunition required to win the war against Russia, the sworn enemy of the United States.
Instead, the Americans transfer just enough ammunitions to Ukraine to reach a situation where it does not lose, prefering to exhaust the Russians with small blows — which ultimately means exhaustion of the Ukrainians.
The Americans also give Israel enough ammunition just so we do not lose, but for slightly different reasons: They fear that Israel will win this war and dramatically change the balance of power in the Middle East in its favor.
In both cases, the Americans’ prescription for its allies is not victory but exhaustion. It prefers weak allies, not strong ones. After all, a strong Israel is an obstacle on the way to realizing the dreams of the Biden Administration, such as forging a “new” Middle East where Iran is a regional player. According to this horribly naive view, strengthening Iran will make it moderate and become a more positive and cooperative factor.
Another Biden Administration dream is to “pacify” the region by establishing a Palestinian state in the territories of Judea and Samaria, which historically belong to the Jews.
At the same time, an overwhelming victory for Israel over Hezbollah will weaken and isolate Iran, push more Sunni Muslim countries into peace agreements with Israel, and create a Middle Eastern reality far different from the one sketched out in the U.S. State Department.
Of course, many in the crowd will point to the “record-breaking” $38-billion military aid package for Israel that Obama signed in 2016 before he left office, but what they don’t know (or won’t tell you) is that all U.S. military aid to Israel — other than loan guarantees — is comprised of credits that go directly from the Pentagon to U.S. weapons manufacturers.
In return, this U.S. aid undermines Israel’s domestic defense industry, weakens its economy, and compromises the country’s autonomy2 — giving Washington, D.C. serious leverage over Israel’s diplomatic and military strategies, which is what we have been witnessing on full display since October 7th.
Much of the present-day Democratic Party, still with Obama’s fingerprints all over it, does not seem to be treating Israel as a resolute ally. Never mind the fact that virtually no one on the Left has provided a single pragmatic solution to this Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war that, as one of our guest writers so brilliantly put it, “does not amount to Israel willingly exposing its throat to those who would gladly cut it.”
This week, following Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel that featured 181 ballistic missiles, President Biden said he opposed an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and then followed up those comments by suggesting that Israel not hit Iran’s oil fields.
As such, the Israelis must continue to listen to America’s sage advice on how Israel should handle its security, diplomacy, or defense — and then remember this simple rule: Do the opposite.
“The United States Overthrew Iran’s Last Democratic Leader.” Foreign Policy.
“End U.S. Aid to Israel.” Tablet.
Two more examples worth adding: the 1979 fall of the Shah, triggered by Carter's unwillingness to support him in quelling protests by force, as is the custom in all Islamic majority countries.
Then there was the 2011 effort to topple Mubarak in Egypt, following Obama's courtship of the Muslim Brotherhood with his 2009 speech to them in Cairo.
The only true American diplomatic achievement in the Middle East in the last 45 years is the Abraham Accords. It was possible only because President Trump and Jared Kushner acted independently and bypassed the mediocrities, under-achievers and anti-Americans in the State Department.
Brilliant! Say it louder for the morons in keffiyehs up the back! 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼🙏🏻🙏🏻