Contrary to what many Western pundits want us to believe, the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s forever weapon. The Iranian regime can threaten Hormuz, but it cannot stop the future.
Thanks for some optimism. I had no idea these possible Iranian work-arounds were in existence. Hopefully this info gets to those who are souring on trump in time for the midterms.
Thank you for this. I will unpack some things that I see from following my favorite Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan and my own take on it. Iran won't surrender. It's a five thousand year old civilization. They will wait Trump out. Ground troops? We would need a million and the moment they leave, Iran will back at it. I would love to see the Islamic Republic gone. Yes, we killed the Ayotollah. Peter Zeihan explained there are ten thousand mullahs, plus the Revolutionary Guard. Iranian people won't rebel now. Look what happened last time. You are right. A Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea can be bombed and there are the Houthis. Israel has to keep bombing Iran. For them, Iran will always be a threat.
20% of the population are regime loyalists. What happens to that loyalty when the IRGC can't make payroll? And civilians can't afford water, food or electricity?
Outside support is exactly what they've been getting.
Look at a map of the trade routes of the old Nabatean Empire (900-300 B.C.E.) and you will see the future of oil transportation infrastructure. Petra anyone?
Excellent article. In addition, we must remember that the Tanakh and the New Covenant have hundreds of prophecies which clearly show us that, as in the days of Noah, we are rapidly coming to a time when the entire world system will be destroyed. This will be followed by the Jewish Messiah taking His position on the throne which is the seat of David in Jerusalem. The Kingdom of God will rule the earth and fix all the current issues we are so upset about.
Saudi Arabia's oil exports in 2025 were 6.3m bbd. Its East West pipeline handles 7m bbd but 2m of that goes to its petrochemical plants in Yanbu, on the Red Sea.
So by next year most of Saudi Arabia and UAE oil exports will bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar LNG is another matter but fortunately it can be replaced with US LNG, which does not add to terrorism funding.
And Venezuela, in the 1980s a bigger oil exporter than Iran, will be restoring its production with American help.
I don’t think that was the point of his argument. He’s talking about the way the hormouz issue is being weaponized as a key point condemning the war , and how that argument isn’t valid.
I disagree that it is valid as a point against the war. It is certainly something that creates problems.. but I think that is also why this war is necessary: allowing iran that power and leverage is dangerous.. there needs to be an intervention. What would happen if they achieved nuclearization?
Iran can continue to sell oil but once Saudi and UAE exports bypass the Strait and Venezuelan oil production ramps up, supply and demand will bring Iranian oil revenues down.
As the oil price falls, so will the value of discount Iran offers for it, possibly to the point where buyers will gain more by avoiding the risk of US sanctions.
You forgot to mention alternative technologies, solar, wind, hydroelectric, hydrogen and atomic energy.
Drop fossil fuels. The world will be a better cleaner safer place to live.
Thanks for some optimism. I had no idea these possible Iranian work-arounds were in existence. Hopefully this info gets to those who are souring on trump in time for the midterms.
Thank you for this. I will unpack some things that I see from following my favorite Geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan and my own take on it. Iran won't surrender. It's a five thousand year old civilization. They will wait Trump out. Ground troops? We would need a million and the moment they leave, Iran will back at it. I would love to see the Islamic Republic gone. Yes, we killed the Ayotollah. Peter Zeihan explained there are ten thousand mullahs, plus the Revolutionary Guard. Iranian people won't rebel now. Look what happened last time. You are right. A Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea can be bombed and there are the Houthis. Israel has to keep bombing Iran. For them, Iran will always be a threat.
The IRGC is not Iran. The Iranian regime is not even 50 years old and has suppressed many elements of Persian civilization .
The Iranian people are desperate and decidedly not rallying behind the regime.
Whether the regime can survive is openly in doubt.
What about the huge protests in Tehrans main square in favor of the government? Without outside support the protesters can’t overthrow the regime
20% of the population are regime loyalists. What happens to that loyalty when the IRGC can't make payroll? And civilians can't afford water, food or electricity?
Outside support is exactly what they've been getting.
Look at a map of the trade routes of the old Nabatean Empire (900-300 B.C.E.) and you will see the future of oil transportation infrastructure. Petra anyone?
Excellent article. In addition, we must remember that the Tanakh and the New Covenant have hundreds of prophecies which clearly show us that, as in the days of Noah, we are rapidly coming to a time when the entire world system will be destroyed. This will be followed by the Jewish Messiah taking His position on the throne which is the seat of David in Jerusalem. The Kingdom of God will rule the earth and fix all the current issues we are so upset about.
UAE has announced that the expansion of the Fujairah pipeline will be operational next year
https://pgjonline.com/news/2026/may/uae-fast-tracks-fujairah-pipeline-to-expand-oil-exports-beyond-hormuz
Saudi Arabia's oil exports in 2025 were 6.3m bbd. Its East West pipeline handles 7m bbd but 2m of that goes to its petrochemical plants in Yanbu, on the Red Sea.
So by next year most of Saudi Arabia and UAE oil exports will bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar LNG is another matter but fortunately it can be replaced with US LNG, which does not add to terrorism funding.
And Venezuela, in the 1980s a bigger oil exporter than Iran, will be restoring its production with American help.
The future is coming sooner than expected.
Excellent work and Thank You‼️🙀🤷👌😻😂😂
I saw a video last year focused on Tehran being close to running out of ground water. How will this regime supply water to all of its people?
I don’t think that was the point of his argument. He’s talking about the way the hormouz issue is being weaponized as a key point condemning the war , and how that argument isn’t valid.
I disagree that it is valid as a point against the war. It is certainly something that creates problems.. but I think that is also why this war is necessary: allowing iran that power and leverage is dangerous.. there needs to be an intervention. What would happen if they achieved nuclearization?
The roots of Iranian strength are its oil and gas exports and its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
If those can be bypassed with pipelines and non-Iranian exports, the roots will wither and the tree will die.
Iran can continue to sell oil but once Saudi and UAE exports bypass the Strait and Venezuelan oil production ramps up, supply and demand will bring Iranian oil revenues down.
As the oil price falls, so will the value of discount Iran offers for it, possibly to the point where buyers will gain more by avoiding the risk of US sanctions.