The west hasn’t learned yet that you cannot make a deal with radical Islam. DT has negotiated and probably sold his sole to the devil. Except for one thing. It’s all an illusion.
We cant seem to get the real details yet, but from all indications it looks like one of the most disgraceful capitulations imaginable and could leave the Iranian regime in even better shape 5 years from now then they were before the war. Absolutely embarrassing if it comes to fruition.
They were literally thousands of postings across hundreds of social media sites with all incorrect information.
This information here was released before the federal government made their release.
Now I believe it, but that doesn't necessarily mean at the time that it could be trusted.
If in your source can be questioned. Because it is a source that backs the iranian people against their government and therefore is very prejudiced.And one sided.
From wikipedia:
The channel is known for raising the profile of Reza Pahlavi, the last heir apparent to the former Iranian throne, and establishing him as a potential leader of Iran by constant coverage and repeatedly interviewing him.[45][15] It also airs coverage of People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), including live broadcast of their rallies.[1] Following the Twelve-Day War of June 2025, it conducted a series of interviews with top Israeli politicians, including Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid.
No one is ever “wrong” for waiting for confirmation from multiple sources, for learning the truth - from the sources closest to the fact source… or to even come close to what's going on.
Since the only statement I made was that I prefer to wait for official notification, in this case, from the government, before I decide to make up my mind, there's nothing to be “wrong” about.
The only way a person could consider what I said was “wrong”, was if my point(s) blew away their entire concept of what “truth” is, and therefore are living in a fantasy world where everybody else is wrong, but them.
So, “Les”,
How valid a source is one that's known to be politically biased one way or the other?
And what does that say about your character?
If you're liable to latch onto one side or the other without keeping an open mind, I'd say you are much more Wrong than a 50/50 chance flip of a coin.
But instead of a "mea culpa" , of course, you're going to give me an ad hominem attack, as you always do, it seems.
"Only the third camp, the one willing to be feared, keeps the thing the hat actually promised." Agree with this statement. Trump is a dealmaker, yes, but he also understands that diplomacy without a mailed fist goes nowhere. Whatever comes from this "deal" remains to be seen but the Mad Mullahs and the IRGC need to be utterly destroyed and if it takes the US and Israel to eventually make it happen then that's fine and dandy.
Great assessment. As I’ve noted on several sources, the third camp of intelligent dominance led by Marco Rubio is going to get its nose rubbed in, not because they/he was not right. Camps one and two with Vance the hillbilly leading the way have caused Trump to bungle this into a strategic defeat. Why did he stop the Operation Freedom, the bombing campaign with no Strait opening, the lost 2 months, the false starts and promises and most of all this joke of a Memorandum of Misunderstanding? Marco should wait until after the midterms, resign in a dignified manner similar to how Nikki Haley did it with gratitude and praise for this President and do a reset rather than go down with this lame duck ship for two more years.
Respectfully disagree. He will be stuck in Trump and Vance’s shadow having to be a front for a bungling for which he was sidelined. IMO, he would end up being the choice candidate who can pick up the pieces when the Republican Party implodes and I don’t write this with a shred of glee. It’s for his legacy and self respect if nothing else. I think we agree he’s (and many others) our man.
On the surface, it might seem like a no-brainer: Rubio resigning now would let him distance himself from the Iran fallout and from getting tagged as a reason Trump lost Congress in the midterms and became a lame duck. People would read it as Rubio disagreeing with how Iran was handled, with JD left to deal with the wreckage.
More importantly, this misreads how Trump operates. Regardless of the midterms or any past and future systemic failures, Trump has plenty of sycophants and loyalists who will still show up and vote. He doesn't reward people for jumping ship when things get hard. Trump is the one who'll anoint his own successor, and if Rubio bails now, he can forget about getting Trump's blessing for it. Despite everything Trump, is the Republican Party
Good analysis. Agree that Rubio would not only be the correct choice for the GOP but would do well with independents & Latinos. Maybe not so well with the 1st camp but they may not be as strong as advertised. Aligning with Tucker, Fuentes and Candace might not be a great strategy for JD.
This deal is obvs not Marco’s deal… but, while we’re all pissing and moaning about the deal, it’s a long way from finished. Iran will start to violate the “ceasefire” as small items 1st. Hezbollah will be bombing and droning into Israel and the IDF will respond “proportionately” prompting the Mullahs to whine to DJT who’ll call Bibi to dress him down and call him “fucking crazy”… and, Bibi will kinda yell back, tell DJT he’ll try really hard not to fight back but if they do it again, we’re gonna fuck ‘em up real good.
Rubio was asked today about this and said that Israel is not party to the agreement and that they have a right to defend themselves. Exactly what needs to be said as the leader of the 3rd camp. It’s about strength in that region of the world. Just ask Israel.
Guy, this is a great article and a fascinating analysis of the competing factions around Trump.
What struck me, though, is the timing. I'm reading this just as news of the Iran MOU is coming out, and I find myself reaching the opposite conclusion. If the deal is anything close to what is being reported, I don't see the dominance camp winning at all. I see the retreat camp gaining momentum.
That's what makes Trump so difficult to analyze. One day he seems to be operating from a position of strength and confrontation, and the next day he appears ready to settle for an agreement that falls well short of the original objectives. There are so many variables at play — politics, public opinion, economic pressures, oil prices, and, of course, Trump's own instincts and personality.
Perhaps the story isn't over yet. We still don't know where the nuclear issue ultimately ends up. But if Iran keeps its regime, retains control of its enriched uranium, and is given a path back through negotiations, then it will be hard for me to look at that outcome and conclude that the dominance camp prevailed.
In any case, I thought your breakdown of the factions was excellent and gave me a lot to think about.
View today from DownUnder - Oil & US elections have precedence. Iran & its tentacles will now re-arm and their international jihad will continue almost unabated. We were naively optimistic...
Trump was always going to betray the interests of Israel and of the American Jewish community. That was crystal clear from any decent analysis of the man. Anyone who bought into MAGA, Vance or Rubio for their own selfish purposes, Netanyahu for his, or Jewish Republican voters out of some delusional grasp of history, now owns this strategic defeat. Rubio is nothing more than a weak, groveling fool. The author’s rescue of Rubio is merely an attempt to salvage a delusion.
Those of you who have read Ezekiel 38-39 know that America will not be there for Israel or anyone else. Empires rise and fall, God allowed this for America for 250 years. I personally believe the time of the fall has arrived for America in its 250th year as Hubris comes out from the man leading the country. Genesis 12:3, God is not mocked.
Isreal will stand alone and God will make the win !!
A very subtle piece which unpicks all aspects of Trump's contradictory personality. It's difficult to get a handle on what's really going on from the other side of The Pond. Trump's entire shtik is to always keep pivoting, in a sense always "closing" but never closed. I do wonder though how many mainstream Republicans he has alienated with this MOU. I have problems seeing how Vance is electable-there is a distinct lack of warmth there.
One other point-the MOU does provide Israel with significant leverage. Bibi will test its edges and at some point will become more aggressive (in a sense his hand has been forced).
Just as the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan encouraged Putin in his invasion of Ukraine, so to this avoidable debacle send the message to the CCP that when the going gets tough the Americans get lost. Those MAGA hats will be exposed as an utter farce in a post Taiwan world when the US is abruptly stripped of all its advanced capabilities. Then Trump can contemplate his ‘legacy’ as the worst Chamberlain in history.
Too many Americans care more about 5$ gas than the prospect of mushroom clouds over their cities. The enormous human capacity for self delusion never ceases to amaze….
The west hasn’t learned yet that you cannot make a deal with radical Islam. DT has negotiated and probably sold his sole to the devil. Except for one thing. It’s all an illusion.
This deal is outrageous! It makes Trump look like an imbecile. He most definitely is!
We cant seem to get the real details yet, but from all indications it looks like one of the most disgraceful capitulations imaginable and could leave the Iranian regime in even better shape 5 years from now then they were before the war. Absolutely embarrassing if it comes to fruition.
Apparently Israel will not be allowed in Lebanon. The Saudis released it.
Good Luck with that!
Please repost when the actual items in the deal are released.
Otherwise it looks like you are reacting to fake news and propaganda.
Protect your reputation, and ...
"Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, than to open it and remove all doubt."
Here's the full text:
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606177192
PS you should have kept quiet
Kept quiet?
They were literally thousands of postings across hundreds of social media sites with all incorrect information.
This information here was released before the federal government made their release.
Now I believe it, but that doesn't necessarily mean at the time that it could be trusted.
If in your source can be questioned. Because it is a source that backs the iranian people against their government and therefore is very prejudiced.And one sided.
From wikipedia:
The channel is known for raising the profile of Reza Pahlavi, the last heir apparent to the former Iranian throne, and establishing him as a potential leader of Iran by constant coverage and repeatedly interviewing him.[45][15] It also airs coverage of People's Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), including live broadcast of their rallies.[1] Following the Twelve-Day War of June 2025, it conducted a series of interviews with top Israeli politicians, including Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid.
“If in your source can be…”
Look up any other listing of the official MOU and you'll see it's identical to the one I posted.
No need to run to Wikipedia to cover up that you were wrong
Are you clueless or just looking for clicks?
No one is ever “wrong” for waiting for confirmation from multiple sources, for learning the truth - from the sources closest to the fact source… or to even come close to what's going on.
Since the only statement I made was that I prefer to wait for official notification, in this case, from the government, before I decide to make up my mind, there's nothing to be “wrong” about.
The only way a person could consider what I said was “wrong”, was if my point(s) blew away their entire concept of what “truth” is, and therefore are living in a fantasy world where everybody else is wrong, but them.
So, “Les”,
How valid a source is one that's known to be politically biased one way or the other?
And what does that say about your character?
If you're liable to latch onto one side or the other without keeping an open mind, I'd say you are much more Wrong than a 50/50 chance flip of a coin.
But instead of a "mea culpa" , of course, you're going to give me an ad hominem attack, as you always do, it seems.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Excellent and clear. Thank you Guy!
What ever the details, this narrative of the internal dynamic seems compelling. Thanks Josh for boosting @GuyGoldstein.
"Only the third camp, the one willing to be feared, keeps the thing the hat actually promised." Agree with this statement. Trump is a dealmaker, yes, but he also understands that diplomacy without a mailed fist goes nowhere. Whatever comes from this "deal" remains to be seen but the Mad Mullahs and the IRGC need to be utterly destroyed and if it takes the US and Israel to eventually make it happen then that's fine and dandy.
Great assessment. As I’ve noted on several sources, the third camp of intelligent dominance led by Marco Rubio is going to get its nose rubbed in, not because they/he was not right. Camps one and two with Vance the hillbilly leading the way have caused Trump to bungle this into a strategic defeat. Why did he stop the Operation Freedom, the bombing campaign with no Strait opening, the lost 2 months, the false starts and promises and most of all this joke of a Memorandum of Misunderstanding? Marco should wait until after the midterms, resign in a dignified manner similar to how Nikki Haley did it with gratitude and praise for this President and do a reset rather than go down with this lame duck ship for two more years.
No, I think Rubio should stick it out and run for President in 2028. He won’t be a viable candidate in 2028 if he leaves now.
Respectfully disagree. He will be stuck in Trump and Vance’s shadow having to be a front for a bungling for which he was sidelined. IMO, he would end up being the choice candidate who can pick up the pieces when the Republican Party implodes and I don’t write this with a shred of glee. It’s for his legacy and self respect if nothing else. I think we agree he’s (and many others) our man.
On the surface, it might seem like a no-brainer: Rubio resigning now would let him distance himself from the Iran fallout and from getting tagged as a reason Trump lost Congress in the midterms and became a lame duck. People would read it as Rubio disagreeing with how Iran was handled, with JD left to deal with the wreckage.
More importantly, this misreads how Trump operates. Regardless of the midterms or any past and future systemic failures, Trump has plenty of sycophants and loyalists who will still show up and vote. He doesn't reward people for jumping ship when things get hard. Trump is the one who'll anoint his own successor, and if Rubio bails now, he can forget about getting Trump's blessing for it. Despite everything Trump, is the Republican Party
I wish it would be Rubio, but I also strongly wish that it would be Ron DeSantis. Probably a vain hope either way.
He won't be a viable candidate if he stays. His only chance is to resign and denounce then skip 32 and hope the MAGA fever finally blows over.
Good analysis. Agree that Rubio would not only be the correct choice for the GOP but would do well with independents & Latinos. Maybe not so well with the 1st camp but they may not be as strong as advertised. Aligning with Tucker, Fuentes and Candace might not be a great strategy for JD.
This deal is obvs not Marco’s deal… but, while we’re all pissing and moaning about the deal, it’s a long way from finished. Iran will start to violate the “ceasefire” as small items 1st. Hezbollah will be bombing and droning into Israel and the IDF will respond “proportionately” prompting the Mullahs to whine to DJT who’ll call Bibi to dress him down and call him “fucking crazy”… and, Bibi will kinda yell back, tell DJT he’ll try really hard not to fight back but if they do it again, we’re gonna fuck ‘em up real good.
Rubio was asked today about this and said that Israel is not party to the agreement and that they have a right to defend themselves. Exactly what needs to be said as the leader of the 3rd camp. It’s about strength in that region of the world. Just ask Israel.
Rubio in ‘28.
Guy, this is a great article and a fascinating analysis of the competing factions around Trump.
What struck me, though, is the timing. I'm reading this just as news of the Iran MOU is coming out, and I find myself reaching the opposite conclusion. If the deal is anything close to what is being reported, I don't see the dominance camp winning at all. I see the retreat camp gaining momentum.
That's what makes Trump so difficult to analyze. One day he seems to be operating from a position of strength and confrontation, and the next day he appears ready to settle for an agreement that falls well short of the original objectives. There are so many variables at play — politics, public opinion, economic pressures, oil prices, and, of course, Trump's own instincts and personality.
Perhaps the story isn't over yet. We still don't know where the nuclear issue ultimately ends up. But if Iran keeps its regime, retains control of its enriched uranium, and is given a path back through negotiations, then it will be hard for me to look at that outcome and conclude that the dominance camp prevailed.
In any case, I thought your breakdown of the factions was excellent and gave me a lot to think about.
The dominance camp is not winning… you would be exactly right in noticing that the people trying to make America small have won this round.
View today from DownUnder - Oil & US elections have precedence. Iran & its tentacles will now re-arm and their international jihad will continue almost unabated. We were naively optimistic...
I see the next 2 years of politics from all sides, "blame Israel, blame the "neocons". Buckle up, it's going to get worse before it gets worse..
Trump was always going to betray the interests of Israel and of the American Jewish community. That was crystal clear from any decent analysis of the man. Anyone who bought into MAGA, Vance or Rubio for their own selfish purposes, Netanyahu for his, or Jewish Republican voters out of some delusional grasp of history, now owns this strategic defeat. Rubio is nothing more than a weak, groveling fool. The author’s rescue of Rubio is merely an attempt to salvage a delusion.
Correct! In my opinion, Rubio and Bessent on one side versus the rest of the cabinet.
Those of you who have read Ezekiel 38-39 know that America will not be there for Israel or anyone else. Empires rise and fall, God allowed this for America for 250 years. I personally believe the time of the fall has arrived for America in its 250th year as Hubris comes out from the man leading the country. Genesis 12:3, God is not mocked.
Isreal will stand alone and God will make the win !!
I'm sure you edited this, and read every word and so on, and nevertheless the AI is visible throughout.
A very subtle piece which unpicks all aspects of Trump's contradictory personality. It's difficult to get a handle on what's really going on from the other side of The Pond. Trump's entire shtik is to always keep pivoting, in a sense always "closing" but never closed. I do wonder though how many mainstream Republicans he has alienated with this MOU. I have problems seeing how Vance is electable-there is a distinct lack of warmth there.
One other point-the MOU does provide Israel with significant leverage. Bibi will test its edges and at some point will become more aggressive (in a sense his hand has been forced).
Just as the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan encouraged Putin in his invasion of Ukraine, so to this avoidable debacle send the message to the CCP that when the going gets tough the Americans get lost. Those MAGA hats will be exposed as an utter farce in a post Taiwan world when the US is abruptly stripped of all its advanced capabilities. Then Trump can contemplate his ‘legacy’ as the worst Chamberlain in history.
Too many Americans care more about 5$ gas than the prospect of mushroom clouds over their cities. The enormous human capacity for self delusion never ceases to amaze….