Brilliant and foreboding analysis. As Douglas Murray has so thoughtfully said, Israel is never permitted to win a war and the Arabs are never permitted to lose one. Iran is not Arab but the same analysis applies. The failure of the useless UN to enforce Security Coucil Res. 1701,calling for Hezbollah to cease its attacks on Northern Israel and to move North of the Litani River was blatantly violated under the noses of UNIFIL troops. Fast forward, Hezbollah has violated the 2024 ceasefire to support Iran and continues to fire missiles/rockets into Israel leaving Israel to renew its bombing campaign bkz the Lebanese Army is too weak to disarm Iran’s Shite terror proxy.
In the South, Hamas is regrouping, recruiting young fighters, and rearming. The ceasefire
Continuing a comment prematurely posted. The Hamas ceasefire and the whole Board of Peace, no matter how well-intentioned, is a sham and a trap. Hamas is in control of 47% of Gaza, torturing and murdering the residents at will. Meanwhile, the 53% Israel maintains has stuck the IDF behind the self-designated “yellow line,” suffering fatal attacks by Hamas terrorists emerging from tunnels, while killing them in return. It is an untenable situation and leaves Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas unachieved for the time being with Israel joining the US in the Iran war while fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The article makes a strong point. But the real question isn’t Israel — it’s the United States.
I don’t believe Israel wants to stop the fight against Iran. Israel understands the threat very clearly. The uncertainty is Washington: will the U.S. fully stand behind Israel, or try to reach another agreement with Iran?
Trump has been one of Israel’s strongest supporters, but even now he seems willing to give Iran opportunities to avoid a final confrontation. I doubt Netanyahu would offer the regime those same chances.
Could Israel act alone? Possibly — but the international backlash would be enormous, especially if oil prices spike. And if the U.S. had just reached a deal with Iran, Israel striking alone could seriously damage that relationship.
So the real question isn’t Israel’s resolve. It’s what the United States ultimately decides to do.
One of the lesson to learn is if as and when you go in to attacke an armed belligerent nation finish the jod. Dont dleay part of it to later. In June when they went in to attack the nuclear producing facilities they should have finished the job, same thing in Gaza and Lebanon. Cockroaches need to be annihilated or else they come back.
Since October 7 wake up call, I’ve been commenting that Israel should change the name of IDF to IWF (Israel War Forces) just like US did. It would change the strategy of the country.
Will the US under Trump have the courage and moral clarity to finish off Iran (unconditional surrender)? Or will little Israel under Bibi, who is under attack on all sides have to do it on her own?
An excellent analysis of the "two states delusion" and the "peace process" that allowed the left in Israel and the West to dance according to the Islamic flute 🪈 at a huge economic loss paved with death and destruction.
The strategy needs an urgent revision and it definitely requires the US to understand the consequences of these follies.
The safety and survival of Israel and the West surpasses the present endurance of economic interests.
Indirectly the same psychological behavior is happening regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine/Europe vs Russia. The world was dependent on the USA to take care of business and protect everyone's interest while everyone should have shouldered their part of the burden on a timely basis and not squander the peace dividend. Bad actors/bullies need to be shown constantly that they don't control the neighbourhood.
This essay makes an excellent point, but what was the alternative? Israel is a small country with a powerful military that punches above its weight class, but is far from a superpower capable of defeating an enormous country like Iran, on its own. Israel needed to devise some method of defending its small nation against missile attack. The best option is to totally defeat any nation or group capable of launching missiles and drones towards Israel, but short of that there needs to be a means of defense. Development of the Iron Beam to the point it can be as effective as the Iron Dome and maybe even moreso, by downing drones too, would greatly increase Israel's military posture. When total defeat of an implacable and determined enemy cannot be obtained, it is victory enough to survive their attacks and cause great harm and damage to them when they do.
This is excellent, but there is one issue with your thesis that Iron Dome as taught the world to ignore missles fired at Israel. The issue is that they ignored missles when there was no Iron Dome, and there is no reason to think they would pay attention if Israel was flattened by Iranian missles.
Brilliant and foreboding analysis. As Douglas Murray has so thoughtfully said, Israel is never permitted to win a war and the Arabs are never permitted to lose one. Iran is not Arab but the same analysis applies. The failure of the useless UN to enforce Security Coucil Res. 1701,calling for Hezbollah to cease its attacks on Northern Israel and to move North of the Litani River was blatantly violated under the noses of UNIFIL troops. Fast forward, Hezbollah has violated the 2024 ceasefire to support Iran and continues to fire missiles/rockets into Israel leaving Israel to renew its bombing campaign bkz the Lebanese Army is too weak to disarm Iran’s Shite terror proxy.
In the South, Hamas is regrouping, recruiting young fighters, and rearming. The ceasefire
Continuing a comment prematurely posted. The Hamas ceasefire and the whole Board of Peace, no matter how well-intentioned, is a sham and a trap. Hamas is in control of 47% of Gaza, torturing and murdering the residents at will. Meanwhile, the 53% Israel maintains has stuck the IDF behind the self-designated “yellow line,” suffering fatal attacks by Hamas terrorists emerging from tunnels, while killing them in return. It is an untenable situation and leaves Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas unachieved for the time being with Israel joining the US in the Iran war while fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The article makes a strong point. But the real question isn’t Israel — it’s the United States.
I don’t believe Israel wants to stop the fight against Iran. Israel understands the threat very clearly. The uncertainty is Washington: will the U.S. fully stand behind Israel, or try to reach another agreement with Iran?
Trump has been one of Israel’s strongest supporters, but even now he seems willing to give Iran opportunities to avoid a final confrontation. I doubt Netanyahu would offer the regime those same chances.
Could Israel act alone? Possibly — but the international backlash would be enormous, especially if oil prices spike. And if the U.S. had just reached a deal with Iran, Israel striking alone could seriously damage that relationship.
So the real question isn’t Israel’s resolve. It’s what the United States ultimately decides to do.
Exactly right! That is the real question.
https://leonupsidedown.blogspot.com
Once again, can one ever negotiate with evil? Or must the evil be eradicated , especially as technological violence increases?
One of the lesson to learn is if as and when you go in to attacke an armed belligerent nation finish the jod. Dont dleay part of it to later. In June when they went in to attack the nuclear producing facilities they should have finished the job, same thing in Gaza and Lebanon. Cockroaches need to be annihilated or else they come back.
Since October 7 wake up call, I’ve been commenting that Israel should change the name of IDF to IWF (Israel War Forces) just like US did. It would change the strategy of the country.
Will the US under Trump have the courage and moral clarity to finish off Iran (unconditional surrender)? Or will little Israel under Bibi, who is under attack on all sides have to do it on her own?
Either way it must be done! Am Yisroel Chai!
https://leonupsidedown.blogspot.com
An excellent analysis of the "two states delusion" and the "peace process" that allowed the left in Israel and the West to dance according to the Islamic flute 🪈 at a huge economic loss paved with death and destruction.
The strategy needs an urgent revision and it definitely requires the US to understand the consequences of these follies.
The safety and survival of Israel and the West surpasses the present endurance of economic interests.
This is a very important article making a point that is both profound and counterintuitive.
At some point, one will get through - probably with chemical or biological weapons - causing mass death.
What does Israel do then?
Is there any effective response to that other than nuclear retaliation?
I'd imagine that the Israelis consider any wmd to be the same as any other and would respond in kind.
Indirectly the same psychological behavior is happening regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine/Europe vs Russia. The world was dependent on the USA to take care of business and protect everyone's interest while everyone should have shouldered their part of the burden on a timely basis and not squander the peace dividend. Bad actors/bullies need to be shown constantly that they don't control the neighbourhood.
This essay makes an excellent point, but what was the alternative? Israel is a small country with a powerful military that punches above its weight class, but is far from a superpower capable of defeating an enormous country like Iran, on its own. Israel needed to devise some method of defending its small nation against missile attack. The best option is to totally defeat any nation or group capable of launching missiles and drones towards Israel, but short of that there needs to be a means of defense. Development of the Iron Beam to the point it can be as effective as the Iron Dome and maybe even moreso, by downing drones too, would greatly increase Israel's military posture. When total defeat of an implacable and determined enemy cannot be obtained, it is victory enough to survive their attacks and cause great harm and damage to them when they do.
This is excellent, but there is one issue with your thesis that Iron Dome as taught the world to ignore missles fired at Israel. The issue is that they ignored missles when there was no Iron Dome, and there is no reason to think they would pay attention if Israel was flattened by Iranian missles.