I do agree on some parts: the US military aid program is beginning to cost Israel support among its natural allies, the America First movement. It's worth remembering that it was Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who requested the end of US economic assistance; removing those props to the state created the Startup Nation and removed a potential source of friction.
But the dependence on US military aid is not the reason Israel's military is hobbled. Israeli companies have moved some manufacture of low-value add components, like aerial bombs, to the US while retaining the high-value components like SPICE guidance kits that are attached to them. Other than manned aircraft, most IDF weapons are at least designed in Israel, from Tavor assault rifles to Merkava tanks, Eitan armored vehicles, SPIKE anti-tank missiles, Hermes drones, Oron airborne early warning aircraft and Ofek reconnaissance satellites.
Co-manufacture with US companies provides Israel with some leverage too as those companies lobby to keep the relationship alive. For example, Israel's Stunner interceptor (used in David's Sling) is also made under license by Raytheon and exported as the Patriot PAC-4.
Much arms trade is made not just for weapons but also to cement relationships; that's how at one point Qatar's 72 aircraft airforce had 24 Rafales (France), 24 Typhoons (UK) and 24 F16 (US). Three sets of engines, avionics, flight simulators but also 3 solid alliances.
" Israel has not been allowed to definitively win wars for quite some time now"
I would disagree: the last war Israel was not allowed to win definitively was the Yom Kippur War, when Kissinger explicitly prohibited the destruction of the surrounded Egyptian Third Army. He relied on assurances from Sadat that Egypt would pivot to the US and wanted to avoid embarrassing him.
Later wars were not definitively won due to Israeli errors. For example, the 1982 Lebanon War left Israel with a solid buffer zone in South Lebanon, abandoned unilaterally in complete chaos in 2000, without any real international pressure. In hindsight, wouldn't the cost and casualties of holding that buffer zone be preferable to Hezbollah on the northern border?
Likewise the 2006 Lebanon War was not won because Israel limited itself to rapid raids and did not attempt to reclaim the buffer zone until two days before the end of the war, when the IDF reached the Litani River.
Perhaps it was not possible but in the current war Israel might have been better served with a larger initial offensive, capturing all the main cities in Gaza simultaneously. Caution and timidity have been a hallmark of Netanyahu at war.
I would add that a tremendous backlash is building up in the US against the oppressed/woke/POC movement, not only from the 70% of voters that are white but also from Hispanics, like myself, who consider ourselves as Americans and not POC or minorities. Excellent articles by Ruy Texeira explain the changes:
This is one of the many reasons I keep reading Joshua’s substack. The comments of his readers are, so often, as informative and thoughtful as Joshua’s writing. “Two Jews=three opinions” grows my understanding.
I am now a registered Republican after being a Democrat and liberal all my life. I do not recognize, nor go along with the Democrats any longer. My parents must be rolling around in their crypts.I am hoping other American Jews will educate themselves about the dangers that have been secretly building up in America for about 30 years.
Thank you for this dose of reality. I am an American Jew who has always supported Bibi....perhaps he needs to see this reality and move on to future strategies. US situation regarding antisemitism is something I thought I would never see in my lifetime. Our Jihadist president Biden and his left wing ilk are to blame. The Democratic party has become the party of antisemitism. The Christian right conservatives have given Jews and Israel the support they deserve. I implore all Jews and Americans to vote republican. Things will change for the better in the US, Israel, and the world.
Wow. This is so depressing and worrisome Joshua. But I am not surprised. I have had this terrible sense of foreboding since the war started. And the situation here in the United States is not good. Yesterday, the pro Hamas crowd was protesting in front of the Nova exhibit In New York City. It was an absolute disgrace.
I'm sorry to say it looks like you are right. Some of us (I'm British, not Jewish) can see how idiotic the response of the West is. It's only going to encourage other terrorists to take Hostages and use Human shields, because human shields are the best weapons. It is so obvious to me and to many of my colleagues and friends. Could it be as simple as "Qatar has bought and paid for western elite opinion via funding of academia".
Still, Israel will win it's peace and security eventually.
I am an American Jew, recently converted, and like many others, have always been a Democrat. I believe in those values and am coming to a crossroads of which direction I should choose, Repub or Dem. Wow! This year it's a choice between two (d)evils. Thank you always Josh for opening our eyes to the reality on the ground. Like you said, the golden handcuffs come at a price.
Prof Thomas Sowell explains in his books and numerous videos and videoed interviews that the Democrats won us via rhetoric since the 1960s. It was then right under our noses that they ushered in horrendous edicts when all we really saw was the icing on top. They have all along i.e. at least since the 1960's completely undermined the nation.
the intention of the Democrat elites and the so-called 'palestinian' 'leaders who are and always have been criminals against their own Arab people' - the intentions were and are always to deceive.
The current Gaza war is the place to start changing course. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated Israeli war aims are to destroy Hamas and get the hostages back, dead or alive. His feet should be held to the fire and these aims must be achieved. The government now is the original coalition with strong supporters of total victory in Gaza. Then Israel will be forced to resettle it with Jews to maintain IDF control. And once pacified and Hamas destroyed, Israel can turn its attention to the HIzboallh and later the PA. NOW is the time because the next war will be only worse. Israel; has the wherewithal to achieve victory. The USA is in shambles and so is Europe. People are fed up with the idiots who govern them. That too is part of current reality an dIsrael can help improve on it and in the process save itself. Capitulation now would be devastating for the country and for Jews everywhere.
- How will you be sure that all hostages are released? Hamas can claim they lost some, or they're held by other groups
- How does Israel respond when Hamas begins launching dozens of rockets per week once arms smuggling and local manufacture restart?
- How/when will Israelis be able to return home to the Gaza envelope and to near the Lebanese border? The security situation will not have changed
These are some of the reasons are why I think Israel cannot give up the Philadelphi corridor in Rafah, the Netzarim corridor and the 1km security buffer. If Israel unilaterally withdraws from Gaza in return for hostages, it is a huge sign of weakness. A Palestinian state will then be forced on Israel, among other unpleasant surprises.
Sorry, but the article totally ignores the present reality of Hezbollah destroying Israel’s northern border. Developing Israel’s own arms industry is vital-I agree. Working with other countries to fight Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas is an excellent idea. But Israel needs a strategy for today, not tomorrow. Hamas must be crushed and northern Lebanon re-taken today. A loss in this war for any reason will only strengthen the determination of Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah to destroy Israel. Biden needs no encouragement-he is working for the Jew hating Democrats. Here is a better way-fight Iran’s proxies now. Push Hezbollah back now. Do it without the world’s approval now. Do it with whatever resources you have. Remember that Trump will side with you, so if you are an American living in Israel, vote for him. The Democrats want to see us destroyed. Turn the tables. You need to fight now.
A refreshing and thoughtful article!
I do agree on some parts: the US military aid program is beginning to cost Israel support among its natural allies, the America First movement. It's worth remembering that it was Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who requested the end of US economic assistance; removing those props to the state created the Startup Nation and removed a potential source of friction.
But the dependence on US military aid is not the reason Israel's military is hobbled. Israeli companies have moved some manufacture of low-value add components, like aerial bombs, to the US while retaining the high-value components like SPICE guidance kits that are attached to them. Other than manned aircraft, most IDF weapons are at least designed in Israel, from Tavor assault rifles to Merkava tanks, Eitan armored vehicles, SPIKE anti-tank missiles, Hermes drones, Oron airborne early warning aircraft and Ofek reconnaissance satellites.
Co-manufacture with US companies provides Israel with some leverage too as those companies lobby to keep the relationship alive. For example, Israel's Stunner interceptor (used in David's Sling) is also made under license by Raytheon and exported as the Patriot PAC-4.
Much arms trade is made not just for weapons but also to cement relationships; that's how at one point Qatar's 72 aircraft airforce had 24 Rafales (France), 24 Typhoons (UK) and 24 F16 (US). Three sets of engines, avionics, flight simulators but also 3 solid alliances.
" Israel has not been allowed to definitively win wars for quite some time now"
I would disagree: the last war Israel was not allowed to win definitively was the Yom Kippur War, when Kissinger explicitly prohibited the destruction of the surrounded Egyptian Third Army. He relied on assurances from Sadat that Egypt would pivot to the US and wanted to avoid embarrassing him.
Later wars were not definitively won due to Israeli errors. For example, the 1982 Lebanon War left Israel with a solid buffer zone in South Lebanon, abandoned unilaterally in complete chaos in 2000, without any real international pressure. In hindsight, wouldn't the cost and casualties of holding that buffer zone be preferable to Hezbollah on the northern border?
Likewise the 2006 Lebanon War was not won because Israel limited itself to rapid raids and did not attempt to reclaim the buffer zone until two days before the end of the war, when the IDF reached the Litani River.
Perhaps it was not possible but in the current war Israel might have been better served with a larger initial offensive, capturing all the main cities in Gaza simultaneously. Caution and timidity have been a hallmark of Netanyahu at war.
I would add that a tremendous backlash is building up in the US against the oppressed/woke/POC movement, not only from the 70% of voters that are white but also from Hispanics, like myself, who consider ourselves as Americans and not POC or minorities. Excellent articles by Ruy Texeira explain the changes:
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
This is one of the many reasons I keep reading Joshua’s substack. The comments of his readers are, so often, as informative and thoughtful as Joshua’s writing. “Two Jews=three opinions” grows my understanding.
I am now a registered Republican after being a Democrat and liberal all my life. I do not recognize, nor go along with the Democrats any longer. My parents must be rolling around in their crypts.I am hoping other American Jews will educate themselves about the dangers that have been secretly building up in America for about 30 years.
Thank you for this dose of reality. I am an American Jew who has always supported Bibi....perhaps he needs to see this reality and move on to future strategies. US situation regarding antisemitism is something I thought I would never see in my lifetime. Our Jihadist president Biden and his left wing ilk are to blame. The Democratic party has become the party of antisemitism. The Christian right conservatives have given Jews and Israel the support they deserve. I implore all Jews and Americans to vote republican. Things will change for the better in the US, Israel, and the world.
Rock and hard place.
Wow. This is so depressing and worrisome Joshua. But I am not surprised. I have had this terrible sense of foreboding since the war started. And the situation here in the United States is not good. Yesterday, the pro Hamas crowd was protesting in front of the Nova exhibit In New York City. It was an absolute disgrace.
I'm sorry to say it looks like you are right. Some of us (I'm British, not Jewish) can see how idiotic the response of the West is. It's only going to encourage other terrorists to take Hostages and use Human shields, because human shields are the best weapons. It is so obvious to me and to many of my colleagues and friends. Could it be as simple as "Qatar has bought and paid for western elite opinion via funding of academia".
Still, Israel will win it's peace and security eventually.
I love your plan; I just would like to destroy all the tunnels on the way out. Is that too much to ask?
I am an American Jew, recently converted, and like many others, have always been a Democrat. I believe in those values and am coming to a crossroads of which direction I should choose, Repub or Dem. Wow! This year it's a choice between two (d)evils. Thank you always Josh for opening our eyes to the reality on the ground. Like you said, the golden handcuffs come at a price.
Prof Thomas Sowell explains in his books and numerous videos and videoed interviews that the Democrats won us via rhetoric since the 1960s. It was then right under our noses that they ushered in horrendous edicts when all we really saw was the icing on top. They have all along i.e. at least since the 1960's completely undermined the nation.
I hate to admit having been duped for too long. It reminds me of the pro-Palestinian narrative having trumped that of Israel. Ouch on both counts!
the intention of the Democrat elites and the so-called 'palestinian' 'leaders who are and always have been criminals against their own Arab people' - the intentions were and are always to deceive.
The current Gaza war is the place to start changing course. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated Israeli war aims are to destroy Hamas and get the hostages back, dead or alive. His feet should be held to the fire and these aims must be achieved. The government now is the original coalition with strong supporters of total victory in Gaza. Then Israel will be forced to resettle it with Jews to maintain IDF control. And once pacified and Hamas destroyed, Israel can turn its attention to the HIzboallh and later the PA. NOW is the time because the next war will be only worse. Israel; has the wherewithal to achieve victory. The USA is in shambles and so is Europe. People are fed up with the idiots who govern them. That too is part of current reality an dIsrael can help improve on it and in the process save itself. Capitulation now would be devastating for the country and for Jews everywhere.
A bold proposal. Raises questions:
- How will you be sure that all hostages are released? Hamas can claim they lost some, or they're held by other groups
- How does Israel respond when Hamas begins launching dozens of rockets per week once arms smuggling and local manufacture restart?
- How/when will Israelis be able to return home to the Gaza envelope and to near the Lebanese border? The security situation will not have changed
These are some of the reasons are why I think Israel cannot give up the Philadelphi corridor in Rafah, the Netzarim corridor and the 1km security buffer. If Israel unilaterally withdraws from Gaza in return for hostages, it is a huge sign of weakness. A Palestinian state will then be forced on Israel, among other unpleasant surprises.
Sorry, but the article totally ignores the present reality of Hezbollah destroying Israel’s northern border. Developing Israel’s own arms industry is vital-I agree. Working with other countries to fight Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas is an excellent idea. But Israel needs a strategy for today, not tomorrow. Hamas must be crushed and northern Lebanon re-taken today. A loss in this war for any reason will only strengthen the determination of Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah to destroy Israel. Biden needs no encouragement-he is working for the Jew hating Democrats. Here is a better way-fight Iran’s proxies now. Push Hezbollah back now. Do it without the world’s approval now. Do it with whatever resources you have. Remember that Trump will side with you, so if you are an American living in Israel, vote for him. The Democrats want to see us destroyed. Turn the tables. You need to fight now.