In 1957, Israel surrendered hard-won gains for promises that dissolved when tested. The emerging order with the Islamic Republic of Iran bears an unsettling resemblance.
Too true. However, I am pretty sure that Israel is not planning on counting on any guarantees. Their eyes have been opened and hopefully they'll withstand the pressure and not make the same mistake again. Israel is much stronger today than 70 years ago, so they can do it.
Adam, good article, and I think you're right to be concerned. The historical parallels are certainly uncomfortable.
That said, I'm still waiting to see how this looks after the full 60 days. I don't trust Iran for a second. We all know what the regime believes and what its long-term goals are, so skepticism is more than justified.
What concerns me most right now is who appears to be driving this process. I've never been particularly comfortable with Vance on foreign policy, and the more I hear from him, the less comfortable I become. I would feel much more confident if Rubio were leading these negotiations. But it is what it is.
For now, I'm reserving judgment. If, at the end of 60 days, there is a real agreement that permanently removes the nuclear threat and leaves Iran unable to cheat its way back to a bomb, then I'll gladly admit my concerns were misplaced. Until then, I remain cautious and skeptical.
I have same concerns. What complicates the chess board further is the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. It is a must win for the Republicans and MAGA or it endangers the Trump agenda and the 2028 presidential election. Add to all of that is that only Trump knows his end play.
All true. But then what in the future if history again repeats itself so to speak. Except this time the military technology is light years from 1957 or 1967. Amazing no one seems to discuss this
The problem with many politicians is that they can't see past their own legacies. I thought perhaps Trump was beyond that but clearly he is not. Alternatively, his view of his legacy is tainted. He would rather keep the masses of the great unwashed bus-people fat and happy, with their massive SUV's petrol tanks filled with $1/gallon fuel than actually create the peace and democratic (small d) world-order he promised. Many of us were short-sighted enough to think that Trump wasn't.
There is one real solution to this, and even Bibi doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to enact it. Israel must destroy the oil infrastructure of Iran, Qatar, and every other enemy, leaving the US (and its holdings in Venezuela) as the new master of energy. As well, the monetary holdings of her enemies, which exist mostly in cyberspace, need to magically disappear off the world's books.And while we're at it, anyone who posts Jew-hatred and marches in anti-Zionist protests needs to have his/her account wiped out.
It can be done. All of it. It is far more humane than the so-called Masada Plan. But of course, no one has the courage to do it.
“Never feeling comfortable with Vance” is an understatement. As soon as Trump sent Vance to Pakistan, then Switzerland, it was apparent TACO was about to surrender. Not just to Iran, who knew their demand of Vance as lead negotiator meant capitulation, but worse, capitulation to Tuckerland.
Israel will follow Zelensky’s playbook in Ukraine regarding dealing with its enemy Russia, a TACO Trump and recalcitrant Vance, standing up to the “dealmaker” in chief without giving him the finger he deserves. He can be kept in reserve while they pave their own way in Lebanon degrading Hezbollah like Ukraine is doing to Russia with superior technology, neutralizing superior manpower. Then, with victory on the way, Trump will shift sides and back a winner he can claim as his own which is his classic Narcissistic playbook.
Unfortunately, Israel does not have the backstop of The European Union to support them(quite the opposite) , only Marco Rubio and a Republican Congress which will likely disappear in November.
One thing is for certain. This 47 year war with Iran is not over, by a long-shot.
Aside from a temporary reprieve from a nuclear bomb and world opinion that Israel is the villain in all this, it’s hard to see what Israel has gained. Very disappointing outcome, but we’ll see what happens after the 60 days are up.
Great essay, I agree with everything written. I also believe that Israel's future will be strong and bright. Hamas and Hizbollah are much degraded, Israel is armed and supplied for the present, and will now proceed to build its own arms industry.
Let us keep in mind; the ICC/ ICJ, as well as the United Nations and perhaps even the Vatican- opportunistically ignores the reality of actual ‘Genocides’/ ‘Ethnic Cleansings’, etc.,even as we speak. And thereby seemingly tolerating such allegedly within Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Iran (opportunistically liquidating People simply for seeking the same freedoms, too many of us frequently take for granted), or to use such freedoms to ‘deny others their rights to freedoms; or to selectively punish others, or as means to ultimately confiscate population’s wealth’:-shameful at best; ‘criminal’ at worst.
All this while potential perpetrators of Genocides/ethic- cleansing watch from the sidelines, allegedly watching how much other dedicated terrorists are getting away with egregious behaviors/ atrocities targeting Jews, worldwide. All while Israel a nation of mixed populations of Christians, Muslims, Jews as well as other religions/ ethnicities seemingly coexist in relative peace.
Lest we turn a blind eye, deny, or minimize past genocides/ ethnic-cleansing perpetrated against ‘indigenous peoples’ within North/South/Central America/ Caribbean islands/Canada; Australia, Asia, etc.; all seemingly justified for any number of reasons and yet remain to be yet fully accounted for; including the mother of all genocides, the conspiracy to liquidate European Jewry, for starters, simply because of religious beliefs and to justify confiscation of the victims’ personal property/ wealth even at the cost of 6 million Jewish lives-1 ½ million being defenseless children and babies:
Have the perpetrators of such unbounded evil no shame?
Was it not Hamas that once alluded: ‘easier to train a ‘fool’ to hate than to reason truth’; hence their defined term; ‘Useful Idiots’, the base of which appears to be geometrically increasing, even as we speak to serve dark actors’ intentions..
If such targeted hate and purposeful destabilization are not stopped; such may yet eventually turn on other vulnerable religions/ethnicities/ groups:
Perhaps YOURS?
Bruce Portnoy, Opinion Journalist/independent analyst (ret.)
Too true. However, I am pretty sure that Israel is not planning on counting on any guarantees. Their eyes have been opened and hopefully they'll withstand the pressure and not make the same mistake again. Israel is much stronger today than 70 years ago, so they can do it.
Adam, good article, and I think you're right to be concerned. The historical parallels are certainly uncomfortable.
That said, I'm still waiting to see how this looks after the full 60 days. I don't trust Iran for a second. We all know what the regime believes and what its long-term goals are, so skepticism is more than justified.
What concerns me most right now is who appears to be driving this process. I've never been particularly comfortable with Vance on foreign policy, and the more I hear from him, the less comfortable I become. I would feel much more confident if Rubio were leading these negotiations. But it is what it is.
For now, I'm reserving judgment. If, at the end of 60 days, there is a real agreement that permanently removes the nuclear threat and leaves Iran unable to cheat its way back to a bomb, then I'll gladly admit my concerns were misplaced. Until then, I remain cautious and skeptical.
I have same concerns. What complicates the chess board further is the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. It is a must win for the Republicans and MAGA or it endangers the Trump agenda and the 2028 presidential election. Add to all of that is that only Trump knows his end play.
All true. But then what in the future if history again repeats itself so to speak. Except this time the military technology is light years from 1957 or 1967. Amazing no one seems to discuss this
Interesting analysis. Reminds me of the Budapest Memorandum and the Ukraine.
The problem with many politicians is that they can't see past their own legacies. I thought perhaps Trump was beyond that but clearly he is not. Alternatively, his view of his legacy is tainted. He would rather keep the masses of the great unwashed bus-people fat and happy, with their massive SUV's petrol tanks filled with $1/gallon fuel than actually create the peace and democratic (small d) world-order he promised. Many of us were short-sighted enough to think that Trump wasn't.
There is one real solution to this, and even Bibi doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to enact it. Israel must destroy the oil infrastructure of Iran, Qatar, and every other enemy, leaving the US (and its holdings in Venezuela) as the new master of energy. As well, the monetary holdings of her enemies, which exist mostly in cyberspace, need to magically disappear off the world's books.And while we're at it, anyone who posts Jew-hatred and marches in anti-Zionist protests needs to have his/her account wiped out.
It can be done. All of it. It is far more humane than the so-called Masada Plan. But of course, no one has the courage to do it.
“Never feeling comfortable with Vance” is an understatement. As soon as Trump sent Vance to Pakistan, then Switzerland, it was apparent TACO was about to surrender. Not just to Iran, who knew their demand of Vance as lead negotiator meant capitulation, but worse, capitulation to Tuckerland.
Israel will follow Zelensky’s playbook in Ukraine regarding dealing with its enemy Russia, a TACO Trump and recalcitrant Vance, standing up to the “dealmaker” in chief without giving him the finger he deserves. He can be kept in reserve while they pave their own way in Lebanon degrading Hezbollah like Ukraine is doing to Russia with superior technology, neutralizing superior manpower. Then, with victory on the way, Trump will shift sides and back a winner he can claim as his own which is his classic Narcissistic playbook.
Unfortunately, Israel does not have the backstop of The European Union to support them(quite the opposite) , only Marco Rubio and a Republican Congress which will likely disappear in November.
One thing is for certain. This 47 year war with Iran is not over, by a long-shot.
Aside from a temporary reprieve from a nuclear bomb and world opinion that Israel is the villain in all this, it’s hard to see what Israel has gained. Very disappointing outcome, but we’ll see what happens after the 60 days are up.
And now the socialists are on the march in America.
Great essay, I agree with everything written. I also believe that Israel's future will be strong and bright. Hamas and Hizbollah are much degraded, Israel is armed and supplied for the present, and will now proceed to build its own arms industry.
Let us keep in mind; the ICC/ ICJ, as well as the United Nations and perhaps even the Vatican- opportunistically ignores the reality of actual ‘Genocides’/ ‘Ethnic Cleansings’, etc.,even as we speak. And thereby seemingly tolerating such allegedly within Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Iran (opportunistically liquidating People simply for seeking the same freedoms, too many of us frequently take for granted), or to use such freedoms to ‘deny others their rights to freedoms; or to selectively punish others, or as means to ultimately confiscate population’s wealth’:-shameful at best; ‘criminal’ at worst.
All this while potential perpetrators of Genocides/ethic- cleansing watch from the sidelines, allegedly watching how much other dedicated terrorists are getting away with egregious behaviors/ atrocities targeting Jews, worldwide. All while Israel a nation of mixed populations of Christians, Muslims, Jews as well as other religions/ ethnicities seemingly coexist in relative peace.
Lest we turn a blind eye, deny, or minimize past genocides/ ethnic-cleansing perpetrated against ‘indigenous peoples’ within North/South/Central America/ Caribbean islands/Canada; Australia, Asia, etc.; all seemingly justified for any number of reasons and yet remain to be yet fully accounted for; including the mother of all genocides, the conspiracy to liquidate European Jewry, for starters, simply because of religious beliefs and to justify confiscation of the victims’ personal property/ wealth even at the cost of 6 million Jewish lives-1 ½ million being defenseless children and babies:
Have the perpetrators of such unbounded evil no shame?
Was it not Hamas that once alluded: ‘easier to train a ‘fool’ to hate than to reason truth’; hence their defined term; ‘Useful Idiots’, the base of which appears to be geometrically increasing, even as we speak to serve dark actors’ intentions..
If such targeted hate and purposeful destabilization are not stopped; such may yet eventually turn on other vulnerable religions/ethnicities/ groups:
Perhaps YOURS?
Bruce Portnoy, Opinion Journalist/independent analyst (ret.)
Author of the geopolitical thriller,
“First, the ‘Saturday People’, and then the…” ; https://muckrack.com/bruce-portnoy/articles
Excellent essay from which I learned much.