That’s for sure .. and Andrew’s insightful analysis, explained ever so well, points to huge problems ahead. The metronome’s leaning in favour / towards Israel, the Abraham Accords & the weakening of Hamas, Hezbollah (& Assad’s demise) appears to be doing a swing ‘the other way’.
I am waiting to see how this plays out and I am very optimistic.
The US for the second time in 2 years has allied directly with Israel to fight a common enemy. That has never happened since 1948. To you this is nothing. To me it is everything.
In the US our armaments industry is changing at incredibe speed. The two Apache pilots that were shot down weren't saved by Navy Seals, Israeli special froces or any person. They were saved by a autonomous boat made by Saronic whose CEO is Dino Mavrookis an ex-Navy Seal. Other companies like Anduril, Castelion, Dzyne and others are making huge strides in developing incredibly dirt cheap, effective, mass produced weapons systme that do NOT rely on any importation of special materials or parts made in China but from readily available materials here in America.
There are dozens of "Elon Musk" types starting defense companies backed by "Elon Musk" type Venture Capitalists who understand if we don't have a civilization all their venture capital investments in AI and other leading technologies will be worthless so they are backing these new companies with all the money they need. Donald Trump picked Pete Hegsteth for a reason. Our Department of War in a few years will be totally different.
Backward regimes like Iran's are in deep, deep trouble.
Protecting our planet must begin with protecting its most vulnerable residents; on all fronts, against all threats as its first priority!
All the while, “words mean everything and must never be summarily dismissed.”
Concerned perception as to the ultimate fates of Israel, Jews, Christianity, Islam, and America are on the table, as we speak: even the very concept of democracy, is being tested on the world stage. Such remains an unacknowledged, testing of the waters for even greater violence, if not the very predicate for the highly feared ‘existential threat’ towards Israel and ultimately the very fate of Jewry, worldwide and as such demands to be heard and addressed by responsible, moral parties at the highest levels with peace and life as their only goals!.
Let’s not dismiss the egregious abuses ‘Jews’, ‘Iranian citizens’ and others of conscience are forcibly enduring within ‘Sudan’, ‘Ethiopia’, ‘Somalia’, ‘Afghanistan’, ‘Iran’and to a lesser degree even within America (New York City) as well as Canada, Australia, Ireland, France, Norway, and seemingly within the Vatican at least for the present.
Jews may well be in the early stages of the testing of the waters for another dedicated genocide attempt’,and enduring such within relative isolation and silence and with no foreseeable end in sight: as today’s world shamefully appears reminiscent of the Nazis rise to power in the 1920’s through World War 2 all the while being seemingly seduced by unstoppable hate directed agendas.
Sad state of affairs, particularly should the silent majority kowtow to implied threats from Iran.
I have to print this and read it later. I appreciate it very much, I am sure it will be cogent and incisive.
Just briefly, I want to outline a much brighter possibility.
We have known for some time that our munitions and armaments have been badly depleted by the boondoggle for Jew Hate in Ukraine.
I hope Mr. Trump is sincere in his unwillingness to tolerate endless games from the Iranians, and is actually running their game back on them, to stall for time to really go in there full blast.
And to say we are at square one seem to overstate things. We did do a lot of damage. Whether there was intentional hyperbole, or Iran surprised them with hidden assets, we did do a lot of damage and Iran is not likely to agree with anything, anyway, all the relief promised to them is contingent on their own performance.
We need to get out of Ukraine, leave it entirely to the Jew Haters in Europe and focus on the nuclear threat we can stop.
Also worth bearing in mind, as recently as two years ago, a total of over 200 computer simulations have shown that we cannot defeat China in the South China Sea.
Because Trump failed his promises too the Israelis and the Iranian people, this war left Iran with greater leverage and legitimacy via agreements for controlling the straight. It now knows to disperse wider all storage at even greater depths and mechanisms to make it even more difficult.
It knows our strategies and is therefore primed and aware. It is strengthened.
Andrew, your article is packed with information and raises a lot of important questions.
I still think it's too early to know how this ultimately ends. If the uranium issue is genuinely resolved and Iran is prevented from rebuilding its nuclear program, then history may judge this very differently than many expect. Perhaps that's wishful thinking on my part, but I am waiting to see the final outcome before passing judgment.
What I still don't understand is this: if Iran's infrastructure, missile capabilities, and military assets were being degraded so effectively, why wasn't the pressure maintained every single day? We spent the first part of the war systematically destroying missiles, launchers, air defenses, and key facilities. Why did that momentum stop? Why weren't the bombings continued relentlessly until even more of the regime's military infrastructure was crippled?
Maybe there are military, intelligence, or political reasons that aren't visible to the public. But from the outside looking in, that is the question I keep coming back to.
In any event, your article gave me a great deal to think about. Thank you for writing it.
Brilliant analysis. I truly thank you for writing and sharing with us. But your analysis, looking backward and forward, may prove to be not entirely right. The future holds surprises, often from surprising forces. The One Above still holds all the cards no matter how smart we think we are.
Why would the people in the trump administration and security complex give a damn what Israel wanted, much less put together an array of military hardware and soldiers? And, Israeli security people would think a Muslim theocratic dictatorship with its loyal IRGC inserted into most of the economy wouldn't sacrifice its citizens to wait out the immediate gratification West?
It's all noise. The politicians are selling the countries' out. You expect that from Middle East countries. You expect some corruption from everyone, but not like this, not for 3 - 5 decades of outsourcing and military force degradation. The ignorance of the Muslim world is bizarre.
Yeah, the West has been too weak for 2 decades to break the Muslim Regime's hold on the Persian Gulf. The US and Israel lost the strategic kinetic war at least 2 decades ago. Europe is gone and the US is committing suicide one k-12 and university graduate at a time.
Too little, too late. Something needed and still needs to be done. The leadership isn't there. Not in the US. Israel should be smarter and more competent. It isn't. It's really disappointing.
Israel has always won its wars despite the US, not because of their help. However, what Trump did, was extremely dangerous as it has confirmed to China that they are free to invade Taiwan and anywhere else in the neighbouring countries, as the US is a paper tiger, which flees every war since WWII, and this is no different. North Korea certainly perked up seeing this disgusting spectacle, so South Korea, beware. Most of the Sunni Gulf States now see the US as a liar, who betrayed them as well, and now will have to search for another country to protect their oil fields and ports. The US is a toothless boasting tiger, which continues to stab its closest allies in the back, who befriends America's real enemies, and is willing to break every promise, contract, treaty and agreement. In other words written on toilet paper, as Gaza, despite Trump's laughable call of victory is still under tight strong control by Hamas, which has rearmed and has had the ability to get thousands of new terrorists to fight, while the promise by Trump to Israel, that they would be disarmed and not allowed to have any part of controlling their smaller Gaza, was just a complete lie.
"Iranian missiles are cheaper to produce than the interceptors needed to stop them"
That depends on what the targets are: it's true for short-range missiles used to hit targets across the Persian Gulf.
But it is not always true for long range missiles: Iran's Khoramshahr missile costs $6M vs the $2m cost of Israel's Arrow 3 interceptor (which is launched one / incoming missile as its long-range gives time to launch a second, if needed).
It took 6 months after the 2025 12 Day War for the Iranian people to rise against the regime. It was never likely that there would be an uprising during the war but in a few months, with economic conditions far worse than those that sparked the January 2026 uprising, this could change.
Time is not on Iran's side: UAE will double the capacity of its bypass pipeline to Fujairah by 2025, allowing its entire exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia can already send half its exports via its East-West pipeline. In a year considerable oil exports will be available from Venezuela, reducing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
One clear fact emerged: the Israeli air force can achieve air superiority over Iran within 72 hours. Good to know.
I was furious myself when he appeared ready to accept a humiliating ceasefire plan with Iran. It looked weak. It looked stupid. Then I asked myself: Why would a man obsessed with winning accept humiliation and walk away?
Then the answer came to me slowly: NUKE.
USA actually considered nuking Iran multiple times.
A nuclear strike doesn't just kill people. It poisons land, destroys generations, and drags entire regions into darkness. Not just Iran was at risk, the neighboring countries like UAE, Saudi, etc. were all at risk.
The same people mocking Trump for "backing down" would have condemned him forever if he crossed that line.
So call him reckless. Call him arrogant.
But if he chose restraint when the world was demanding fire, that isn't madness. That's courage. I may not like the man. But he has earned my respect if that was indeed the reason he backed out.
"A nuclear strike doesn't just kill people. It poisons land, destroys generations, and drags entire regions into darkness"
Both Hiroshima and Nagasaki were flourishing by the mid-1950s, less than 10 years after the nuclear attacks. Just in case real-world evidence is of any value.
The fact that a city can rebuild doesn't make vaporizing it inconsequential. Tens of thousands died instantly. Many more suffered radiation sickness, cancer, and lifelong trauma.
And today's nuclear weapons aren't the bombs of 1945. They're far more destructive, with geopolitical consequences that could engulf entire regions.
My point wasn't that Iran would become permanently uninhabitable.
My point is simple: if nuclear escalation was an option, choosing not to cross that threshold isn't weakness.
"And today's nuclear weapons aren't the bombs of 1945"
Indeed, the Hiroshima bomb was about 20 KT and today's US nuclear arsenal has bombs with yields ranging from 0.5 KT to 330 KT.
Tactical nuclear weapons of 0.5 - 1 KT, less than 5% of the Hiroshima bomb, seem like an excellent choice to destroy deep underground nuclear facilities like Pickeax Mountain, outside Natanz.
The moral of this story, Israel can not depend on anyone.
That’s for sure .. and Andrew’s insightful analysis, explained ever so well, points to huge problems ahead. The metronome’s leaning in favour / towards Israel, the Abraham Accords & the weakening of Hamas, Hezbollah (& Assad’s demise) appears to be doing a swing ‘the other way’.
"The Iran war ended exactly where it began."
No, it didn't.
Doom and gloom sells.
I am waiting to see how this plays out and I am very optimistic.
The US for the second time in 2 years has allied directly with Israel to fight a common enemy. That has never happened since 1948. To you this is nothing. To me it is everything.
In the US our armaments industry is changing at incredibe speed. The two Apache pilots that were shot down weren't saved by Navy Seals, Israeli special froces or any person. They were saved by a autonomous boat made by Saronic whose CEO is Dino Mavrookis an ex-Navy Seal. Other companies like Anduril, Castelion, Dzyne and others are making huge strides in developing incredibly dirt cheap, effective, mass produced weapons systme that do NOT rely on any importation of special materials or parts made in China but from readily available materials here in America.
There are dozens of "Elon Musk" types starting defense companies backed by "Elon Musk" type Venture Capitalists who understand if we don't have a civilization all their venture capital investments in AI and other leading technologies will be worthless so they are backing these new companies with all the money they need. Donald Trump picked Pete Hegsteth for a reason. Our Department of War in a few years will be totally different.
Backward regimes like Iran's are in deep, deep trouble.
Protecting our planet must begin with protecting its most vulnerable residents; on all fronts, against all threats as its first priority!
All the while, “words mean everything and must never be summarily dismissed.”
Concerned perception as to the ultimate fates of Israel, Jews, Christianity, Islam, and America are on the table, as we speak: even the very concept of democracy, is being tested on the world stage. Such remains an unacknowledged, testing of the waters for even greater violence, if not the very predicate for the highly feared ‘existential threat’ towards Israel and ultimately the very fate of Jewry, worldwide and as such demands to be heard and addressed by responsible, moral parties at the highest levels with peace and life as their only goals!.
Let’s not dismiss the egregious abuses ‘Jews’, ‘Iranian citizens’ and others of conscience are forcibly enduring within ‘Sudan’, ‘Ethiopia’, ‘Somalia’, ‘Afghanistan’, ‘Iran’and to a lesser degree even within America (New York City) as well as Canada, Australia, Ireland, France, Norway, and seemingly within the Vatican at least for the present.
Jews may well be in the early stages of the testing of the waters for another dedicated genocide attempt’,and enduring such within relative isolation and silence and with no foreseeable end in sight: as today’s world shamefully appears reminiscent of the Nazis rise to power in the 1920’s through World War 2 all the while being seemingly seduced by unstoppable hate directed agendas.
Sad state of affairs, particularly should the silent majority kowtow to implied threats from Iran.
Bruce Portnoy, Opinion Journalist/analyst
https://muckrack.com/bruce- portnoy/articles
I have to print this and read it later. I appreciate it very much, I am sure it will be cogent and incisive.
Just briefly, I want to outline a much brighter possibility.
We have known for some time that our munitions and armaments have been badly depleted by the boondoggle for Jew Hate in Ukraine.
I hope Mr. Trump is sincere in his unwillingness to tolerate endless games from the Iranians, and is actually running their game back on them, to stall for time to really go in there full blast.
And to say we are at square one seem to overstate things. We did do a lot of damage. Whether there was intentional hyperbole, or Iran surprised them with hidden assets, we did do a lot of damage and Iran is not likely to agree with anything, anyway, all the relief promised to them is contingent on their own performance.
We need to get out of Ukraine, leave it entirely to the Jew Haters in Europe and focus on the nuclear threat we can stop.
Also worth bearing in mind, as recently as two years ago, a total of over 200 computer simulations have shown that we cannot defeat China in the South China Sea.
Taiwan, strategy...and bye, I really gotta go.
.. could you be so kind as to explain ‘Jew hate in the Ukraine’ .. and ‘Jew haters in Europe’ ..
you lost me at "i hope mr. trump is sincere...."
Because Trump failed his promises too the Israelis and the Iranian people, this war left Iran with greater leverage and legitimacy via agreements for controlling the straight. It now knows to disperse wider all storage at even greater depths and mechanisms to make it even more difficult.
It knows our strategies and is therefore primed and aware. It is strengthened.
Andrew, your article is packed with information and raises a lot of important questions.
I still think it's too early to know how this ultimately ends. If the uranium issue is genuinely resolved and Iran is prevented from rebuilding its nuclear program, then history may judge this very differently than many expect. Perhaps that's wishful thinking on my part, but I am waiting to see the final outcome before passing judgment.
What I still don't understand is this: if Iran's infrastructure, missile capabilities, and military assets were being degraded so effectively, why wasn't the pressure maintained every single day? We spent the first part of the war systematically destroying missiles, launchers, air defenses, and key facilities. Why did that momentum stop? Why weren't the bombings continued relentlessly until even more of the regime's military infrastructure was crippled?
Maybe there are military, intelligence, or political reasons that aren't visible to the public. But from the outside looking in, that is the question I keep coming back to.
In any event, your article gave me a great deal to think about. Thank you for writing it.
article fails to refer to un's MENWFZ + MEWMDFZ which have been sat on the table for signature for around 30 years.
only israel refuses to sign.
This article contains the following ingredients: 1) 80% reckless speculation; 2) 10% TDS 3) 10% BDS ( Bibi Derangement Syndrome)
Brilliant analysis. I truly thank you for writing and sharing with us. But your analysis, looking backward and forward, may prove to be not entirely right. The future holds surprises, often from surprising forces. The One Above still holds all the cards no matter how smart we think we are.
Why would the people in the trump administration and security complex give a damn what Israel wanted, much less put together an array of military hardware and soldiers? And, Israeli security people would think a Muslim theocratic dictatorship with its loyal IRGC inserted into most of the economy wouldn't sacrifice its citizens to wait out the immediate gratification West?
It's all noise. The politicians are selling the countries' out. You expect that from Middle East countries. You expect some corruption from everyone, but not like this, not for 3 - 5 decades of outsourcing and military force degradation. The ignorance of the Muslim world is bizarre.
Yeah, the West has been too weak for 2 decades to break the Muslim Regime's hold on the Persian Gulf. The US and Israel lost the strategic kinetic war at least 2 decades ago. Europe is gone and the US is committing suicide one k-12 and university graduate at a time.
Too little, too late. Something needed and still needs to be done. The leadership isn't there. Not in the US. Israel should be smarter and more competent. It isn't. It's really disappointing.
Israel has always won its wars despite the US, not because of their help. However, what Trump did, was extremely dangerous as it has confirmed to China that they are free to invade Taiwan and anywhere else in the neighbouring countries, as the US is a paper tiger, which flees every war since WWII, and this is no different. North Korea certainly perked up seeing this disgusting spectacle, so South Korea, beware. Most of the Sunni Gulf States now see the US as a liar, who betrayed them as well, and now will have to search for another country to protect their oil fields and ports. The US is a toothless boasting tiger, which continues to stab its closest allies in the back, who befriends America's real enemies, and is willing to break every promise, contract, treaty and agreement. In other words written on toilet paper, as Gaza, despite Trump's laughable call of victory is still under tight strong control by Hamas, which has rearmed and has had the ability to get thousands of new terrorists to fight, while the promise by Trump to Israel, that they would be disarmed and not allowed to have any part of controlling their smaller Gaza, was just a complete lie.
If anyone reads the book of Ezekiel, chapters 38-39, you’ll understand why the Americans never succeeded in bringing the Ayatollah down.
No man can change the written word of God.
Next war will be the Ezekiel war and Not a single country will come to the help of Israel.
Only God will come and show the world who He is exactly why He loves Jerusalem.
"Iranian missiles are cheaper to produce than the interceptors needed to stop them"
That depends on what the targets are: it's true for short-range missiles used to hit targets across the Persian Gulf.
But it is not always true for long range missiles: Iran's Khoramshahr missile costs $6M vs the $2m cost of Israel's Arrow 3 interceptor (which is launched one / incoming missile as its long-range gives time to launch a second, if needed).
It took 6 months after the 2025 12 Day War for the Iranian people to rise against the regime. It was never likely that there would be an uprising during the war but in a few months, with economic conditions far worse than those that sparked the January 2026 uprising, this could change.
Time is not on Iran's side: UAE will double the capacity of its bypass pipeline to Fujairah by 2025, allowing its entire exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia can already send half its exports via its East-West pipeline. In a year considerable oil exports will be available from Venezuela, reducing the importance of the Strait of Hormuz.
One clear fact emerged: the Israeli air force can achieve air superiority over Iran within 72 hours. Good to know.
Regretfully TACO
Never mind. The ball is round. One day, America will wake up for Eurabia, it's too late.
Everyone calls #TRUMP a nutcase.
I was furious myself when he appeared ready to accept a humiliating ceasefire plan with Iran. It looked weak. It looked stupid. Then I asked myself: Why would a man obsessed with winning accept humiliation and walk away?
Then the answer came to me slowly: NUKE.
USA actually considered nuking Iran multiple times.
A nuclear strike doesn't just kill people. It poisons land, destroys generations, and drags entire regions into darkness. Not just Iran was at risk, the neighboring countries like UAE, Saudi, etc. were all at risk.
The same people mocking Trump for "backing down" would have condemned him forever if he crossed that line.
So call him reckless. Call him arrogant.
But if he chose restraint when the world was demanding fire, that isn't madness. That's courage. I may not like the man. But he has earned my respect if that was indeed the reason he backed out.
"A nuclear strike doesn't just kill people. It poisons land, destroys generations, and drags entire regions into darkness"
Both Hiroshima and Nagasaki were flourishing by the mid-1950s, less than 10 years after the nuclear attacks. Just in case real-world evidence is of any value.
That's not the point.
The fact that a city can rebuild doesn't make vaporizing it inconsequential. Tens of thousands died instantly. Many more suffered radiation sickness, cancer, and lifelong trauma.
And today's nuclear weapons aren't the bombs of 1945. They're far more destructive, with geopolitical consequences that could engulf entire regions.
My point wasn't that Iran would become permanently uninhabitable.
My point is simple: if nuclear escalation was an option, choosing not to cross that threshold isn't weakness.
It's restraint.
"And today's nuclear weapons aren't the bombs of 1945"
Indeed, the Hiroshima bomb was about 20 KT and today's US nuclear arsenal has bombs with yields ranging from 0.5 KT to 330 KT.
Tactical nuclear weapons of 0.5 - 1 KT, less than 5% of the Hiroshima bomb, seem like an excellent choice to destroy deep underground nuclear facilities like Pickeax Mountain, outside Natanz.
Written by an LLM