Also, I sometimes wonder whether Biden is completely talking one way for political purposes, while talking a different way to Israel behind closed doors. Re Michigan: does the population not remember Trump trying to stop ALL Arabs / Muslims from coming in? Are there really more Muslims in Michigan than UAW members? Just wondering.
I love that quotation from Menachem Begin. In regard to the Spencer quotation, it seems that not only has Israel done more than any other military to protect civilians, it's done it successfully!
@Joshua Hoffman, how would you respond to a Realist position on this, that states look to the national self-interest, and then decide? A position that would take Israel as being a state like any other, and ask itself: what does Israel do for our national self-interest?
US national interest especially but not alone has surely been bloodily harmed by supporting Israel so assiduously: the decision to give $2.2 billion in emergency military aid during the Yom Kippur War triggered an OPEC oil embargo that inflicted considerable damage on Western economies. The US could not rely on Israel when the Iranian Revolution in 1979 raised concerns about the security of oil supplies, and had to create its own Rapid Deployment Force instead. The first Gulf War revealed the extent to which Israel was becoming a strategic burden: the US could not use Israeli bases without rupturing the anti-Iraq coalition, and had to divert resources (Patriot missile batteries) to prevent Tel Aviv doing anything that might harm the alliance against Saddam Hussein. History repeated itself in 2003: although Israel was eager for the US to attack Iraq, Bush could not ask it to help without triggering Arab opposition. So Israel stayed on the sidelines once again. Since then, building settlements in Judea-Samaria has inflamed the Arab street, and Netanyahu's creation of a religious state not hugely unlike the Islamic and Hindu ones has led to accusations of apartheid which the West has little defence against.
I think it is more nuanced than you describe. Israeli intelligence and military technology (which you and I don’t see) is hugely beneficial to the West. The Saudis want to normalize with Israel so Middle Eastern countries and even India can transport natural gas and other materials to Europe via Israel. Arab leaders don’t care about the Arab street as much as they care about their regime’s security and money. Hence why Jordan and Egypt have peace with Israel (Israel helps them with security, as well as the Saudis on an unofficial basis). I agree that there are many nuances and factors, and it is not a black and white you are with us or against us type thing. But I don’t necessarily think, for the Americans right now, it’s about foreign policy as much as it is about Biden not wanting to lose the state of Michigan in November, and how this war is having an effect on Arab and Muslim Jew-hating voters in Michigan who now feel empowered with so-called political sway.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I'm sure there are alot of bigots in the Arab and Muslim voting community in the USA, and they may indeed be concentrated in certain constituencies, however tiny their total numbers actually are. Pitched against them - and, anecdotally, we read their comments on your well-written piece - the immensely powerful Israel Lobby (Christian evangelicals for the most part, but Jewish groupings too).
The Islamist problem is largely one created because the USA has been Israel's backer, and Europe has got it in the neck because it is the USA's main ally. Had the USA not been Israel's backer, then it'd be realpolitik as usual between states in the West and those of the Arab world. And there'd be no need for Israeli intel. By the way, the UK is under intense pressure to stop military supplies to Israel at the moment. Next year we will have a Labour government, and the Labour Party is just millimetres away from making a BDS policy against Israel.
Why is Biden saying what he is saying? Because, like the ICJ in The Hague, he thinks Israeli action is very close to being genocide and ethnic cleansing. It's not just a question of international law, but of the consequences to the West of an ally being branded a war criminal. We have a similar problem with Turkey being in NATO. And it hobbles our argument against Russia when we are criticised for having double standards.
Which brings me back to the Realist question: states ask WIIFM? If you take the world as composed of states that have no centralised authority, no ultimate arbiter that stands above states and protects them, then what's in it for them to support Israel?
Right to defend. I’m not buying that. This is the same thing that is happening in Ukraine. Give them enough weapons to defend against aggression but not enough to end the war. Scoring political points seems to be the goal to gaining votes by appeasement. I’m afraid that rule of law and the ability to live in peace is not on the agenda. Instead Power, greed and $$$ seem to be on today’s menu as choice of the day. It also appears that nations like Iran are following the same path as the Moors millennia ago trying to establish world domination. If not Iran, then who next, Russia, China? Rogue leaders need to be held in check by the collective world establishment as a whole. All I see is appeasement and then the cries for help that follow.
It’s terrible but you are correct. Biden is waging a senseless, vote collecting exercise! He simply can’t be trusted on anything he says. The west are weaklings and afraid. I agree with you, that Russia are on the sidelines. I’ve said it before, do what you have to do. What it is right and bugger the rest!
Truly, I do think we appear weak. Hamas / Iran - they all know exactly how this works (as described at length in this article), and they know they are "winning." I think Netanyahu has to say what M. Begin said years ago to Biden.
'Threats to Article 5' : BEWARE Nazi Agent-Provocateurs.
Small-scale incursions into Russia by Nazi Terrorist Cells could precipitate a devastating War between the World's Great Powers, The USA and Russia.
We have monitored Neo-Nazi 'Accelerationist' plans here in London by quite highly-placed Nazis who met here to Re-Form The Nazi Party and plan just such a scenario.
These Nazis are known to the Authorities here.
A Nuclear Exchange between superpowers would destroy The Liberal Democracies here in The West, and Russia, to bring in 'The New World Order' for The Nazis and Nazi Germany. This is what is known as Accelerationism, planned as vengeance and payback for the defeat of Hitler last time around.
I won’t pretend to speak for most European countries where their anti-Israel posturing appears to be the result of some mix of centuries of antisemitic belief and a fear of an excitable Muslim minority. A charitable view would be that, with Russia seemingly getting the upper hand in Ukraine and a necessary demand that the Europeans up their game militarily in support of Ukraine, they don’t need their shipping and oil supplies compromised by conflict in the Middle East - no matter the cause and no matter how otherwise righteous the reaction by Israel … and, of course, no matter how much they secretly support the destruction of Hamas, the humbling of Iran and the potential thereafter for a more stable region. For them, they are back to a time when Israel destroyed the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors: much public negative posturing, while quietly exhaling relief.
I will pretend to understand what is happening with the US, even if it might just be the wishful thinking of a confirmed optimist. First, the US signed on to Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas and moved two carrier strike forces to the region to warn off Hezbollah and its patron, Iran - Biden’s famous “don’t”. It may have been tactical in the belief that going into Gaza would be a quagmire for Israel at which point the US would graciously step in and dictate a peace, something like Kissinger in the Yom Kippur War - Note to Diane Steiner: the Arabs call that war the Ramadan War, so when the holy month rolls around, this year in March, that sneak attack is probably worth reminding the world about.
It is possible that Israel surprised everyone with its innovative tactics and on the ground success in Gaza, so whatever leverage the US may have hoped for in the quagmire scenario went up in smoke. The Biden Administration has followed a double path for political purposes. Significantly, it has not really interfered with Israel’s campaign, though Congress needs to get on the stick on the funding side. And by keeping the Eisenhower carrier strike force in the region, Hezbollah will remain checkmated, unless and until it unleashes its missiles on Israel in which case the US may or may not stand idly by - it may not wish to take the gamble, which is what deterrence is all about. If it guesses wrong on US intentions and the US intervenes, it goes down and takes whatever is left of Lebanon with it. In any event, that decision is probably Iran’s to make and it’s unlikely that it wishes to lose its proxy on Israel’s north.
As for Iran, there is a school of thought that the JCPOA was a sideshow because President Obama’s actual calculation of the worst case scenario was a US-Iran war, the view was that a nuclear Iran could be contained (though that conviction is not obvious when you are dealing with a chiliastic leadership or one that goes to great lengths to show an interest in advancing the End Times). On the US side of the ledger, Iran’s population is increasingly restless and cannot necessarily be counted on to rally round the Ayatollahs in the event of attack the way the Israelis rallied around the flag after October 7. So, it is unlikely that Iran wants a direct confrontation with the US which would leave the path clear for wiping out, through direct attack or interdiction, the Houthis ability to project lethal force. An Iranian miscalculation might result in its refineries burning, its navy sunk, its drone manufacturing plants blitzed and, perhaps, the entrances to its underground nuclear facilities targeted.
On the domestic political front, the Biden Administration wants to stay out of a shooting war at least until November. After that, who knows. It is balancing what I see as simply opportunistic bullying by Michigan Muslims and assorted Progressive with the national interest. That results in “apologies” of no particular moment, demands for temporary ceasefires that Hamas will never agree to as it requires them to give up the hostages and, notwithstanding all the talk of a path to a State of Palestine, everyone understands that is never happening on the watch of the current Palestinian rulers. Among other things, the price of admission will be the recognition of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people and the surrender of their fictional “right” of return. The “two state for two peoples” obsession seems to exist more in the West than among Sunni Arab states who have come to the conclusion that their future and security rests with a strong Israel. Consequently, the Arabs will accept a “vision thing”, to borrow from HW, where the outlines of a future state of Palestine is concerned.
As best I can predict, Hamas will not surrender (that’s too humiliating and in an honor-shame society, that counts a lot). I think that the reason this conflict has festered for decades is because Israel was never allowed to win. This time, because of the October 7 outrage, it just might be given that opportunity. Israel will move Gazans around (they want to live, after all, even if they hate Jews), enter Rafah and finish off Hamas. With any luck, UNWRA will finally be discredited and its functions divided among other international entities - this will have the further advantage of ending the nonsensical concept of an inherited refugee status and its profoundly Judeophobic educational system. Unfortunately, it is likely that Hamas will kill many of the remaining hostages. Israel will then conduct its investigation, Netanyahu will go into retirement having “saved” the nation and, depending on the timing, maybe brought Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, a broadly centrist coalition will govern Israel and the yelling and Israel’s screaming of a boisterous democratic system will start up again.
Meantime, a coalition of Arab states will oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and Israel, for a time, will see to its demilitarization. The Arabs will select a consortium of clan sheiks to govern (or pretend to as the Arab countries insure that their investments are not wasted by violent actors) and, with any luck, within the remaining decade Gaza will become the Singapore on the Med that will show the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria the real dividends of peace.
I know, I know, Islam’s anti-Jewish elements will have to be repudiated, but Hamas’ loss might go some length toward discrediting the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran and its proxies (as well as Russia and China who would prefer to keep the pot boiling to distract the US) will have to be kept in check. But at least that’s a decent vision of the Day After, so why not aim for that?
Wow, sounds promising! My only comment is that the U.S. returned the aircraft carrier that was supposed to be deterrence to Hezbollah several weeks ago. My feeling is Hezbollah demanded they do so as a prerequisite to “negotiating” a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah (which many now believe will not happen as long as there isn’t a ceasefire in Gaza, go figure).
Unfortunately, our politics in the USA has become one giant conspiracy theory so I can only rely on what Biden told Israel and the world after October 7th.
It may sound promising but I can’t promise anything I wrote will pass.
We still have the 6th fleet in the region and that should be enough to prevent Hezbollah from taking too many risks. The current game is to (finally) bring them into compliance with UNSC resolution 1701 and withdraw beyond the Litani River. I don’t see a face saving way for Hezbollah to retreat to that line, but perhaps Nazrallah will be magnanimous and do it for the good of the Lebanese people (ha!)
If Israel completes Hamas’ destruction, Hezbollah and Iran will interpret that correctly as the consequence of a U.S. green light. They may not want to gamble on Israel being given a second green light in the North. Only time will tell, but it remains a truth in international law that military might is a deciding factor in any outcome.
I want to believe that behind the scenes everything that Biden said to Israel and the world after October 7th, still stands. His posturing in the media and the world stage since is just that. It would be political suicide to abandon it’s one and only true democratic ally in the Middle East.
Maybe, maybe not. What if I told you that the Qataris are funding his reelection campaign with the promise that he won’t let Israel totally take out Hamas in Gaza.
That might sound like a conspiracy theory, but what is not a conspiracy theory is that the Qataris have donated billions of dollars to U.S. universities — much of which was undisclosed. If they can do it at the academic level, what would stop them from doing it at the electoral one? Food for thought.
Qatar couldn’t funnel enough money into Biden’s reelection campaign to make a difference and, in any event, funds need to be reported publicly. I know of no super PAC that is blanketing the airwaves with “save Hamas” items either. And since the most recent Harvard-Harris poll shows 81-10 American support of Israel, tilting to Hamas makes no electoral sense either.
Hamas has boxed itself in. It cannot surrender as it won’t survive the humiliation. It cannot possibly win on the battlefield. The world has not rallied to its side in any meaningful way, and its allies have failed to support it in any way that relieves the pressure the IDF is placing on them. Its negotiating strategy remains the one a victor would used, but, to be fair, that’s been the consistent Palestinian playbook.
Sinwar and Deif probably now have a better understanding of how their idol Hitler felt in his bunker in his final days. The only question is whether they will follow his example, prefer suicide by IDF or allow themselves to be captured and face trial. Only time will tell.
Appreciate your reply, Charles. It’s all speculation at this point. I don’t see much of what you said the same way but I don’t want to get into a debate in a comments thread. Some of it I’ll feature in future essays!
1) Where are the resolutions for Hamas’ surrender to save the Palestinians as well as the release of all Israeli hostages?
2) Through out the years and especially during this war, Israel has gained great knowledge on how to deal with Hamas. More importantly, Israel has shared that knowledge with the world to show them what they are dealing with.
3) Israel has to continue what it is doing for Israel’s survival even though Israel’s continued world condemnation…
It's crystal clear: we shouldn't bend over backward trying to heed everyone else's opinions. It's evident that no matter what we do, it'll never be enough for them. The sheer number of clueless individuals out there is staggering. But recent events have underscored a harsh reality: the world has descended into chaos, and our only reliable anchor is ourselves. Am Israel Chai.
I've been angry but not surprised at Biden and his ridiculous admin's dance with Israel and Hamas, as well as the absolute craziness of the UN, EU, etc. Interesting how they call it forced displacement when the demands on Israel are to protect the "poor Palestinians." So when the Israel has to move them to a safe corridor, it's forced displacement. Do any of these people realize the delirium they are experiencing when making these absurd announcements. Referring to the Arab and Muslims in the UK, most may be harmless, but it only takes a small group that isn't. Multiply that by small groups in each Western country, and you could have grease fires popping up, turning into conflagrations. And if the war in Gaza does not stop, there could be a possible flare up in Jerusalem, Samaria, and Judea? Well, we all know that there's nothing like a good flare up during their "Holy Month" of Ramadan. With respect to Ramadan, this is what religious people do during their important holidays, right? The politicians know what's going on but are too cowardly to speak out truthfully. Where are the conditions for Russia or the Ukraine? Where's the outcry for all the Ukrainian civilians who have been killed? They all give warnings to Israel. How about the warnings for Hamas? Crickets as usual. Eylon Levy is a great spokesperson for Israel who speaks honestly and courageously, which is sorely lacking with too many global politicians and the various agencies. So if I'm to judge this correctly, Russians bad, Palestinians good? A bizarro world indeed, but a dangerous one for Israel. I will contain my anger and wait for the next episode in this Theatre of the Absurd. As long as Israel is in control of what they have to do, my faith remains firm. Am Yisrael Chai.
Also, I sometimes wonder whether Biden is completely talking one way for political purposes, while talking a different way to Israel behind closed doors. Re Michigan: does the population not remember Trump trying to stop ALL Arabs / Muslims from coming in? Are there really more Muslims in Michigan than UAW members? Just wondering.
I love that quotation from Menachem Begin. In regard to the Spencer quotation, it seems that not only has Israel done more than any other military to protect civilians, it's done it successfully!
@Joshua Hoffman, how would you respond to a Realist position on this, that states look to the national self-interest, and then decide? A position that would take Israel as being a state like any other, and ask itself: what does Israel do for our national self-interest?
US national interest especially but not alone has surely been bloodily harmed by supporting Israel so assiduously: the decision to give $2.2 billion in emergency military aid during the Yom Kippur War triggered an OPEC oil embargo that inflicted considerable damage on Western economies. The US could not rely on Israel when the Iranian Revolution in 1979 raised concerns about the security of oil supplies, and had to create its own Rapid Deployment Force instead. The first Gulf War revealed the extent to which Israel was becoming a strategic burden: the US could not use Israeli bases without rupturing the anti-Iraq coalition, and had to divert resources (Patriot missile batteries) to prevent Tel Aviv doing anything that might harm the alliance against Saddam Hussein. History repeated itself in 2003: although Israel was eager for the US to attack Iraq, Bush could not ask it to help without triggering Arab opposition. So Israel stayed on the sidelines once again. Since then, building settlements in Judea-Samaria has inflamed the Arab street, and Netanyahu's creation of a religious state not hugely unlike the Islamic and Hindu ones has led to accusations of apartheid which the West has little defence against.
So, how can Israel help the West, @Joshua?
I think it is more nuanced than you describe. Israeli intelligence and military technology (which you and I don’t see) is hugely beneficial to the West. The Saudis want to normalize with Israel so Middle Eastern countries and even India can transport natural gas and other materials to Europe via Israel. Arab leaders don’t care about the Arab street as much as they care about their regime’s security and money. Hence why Jordan and Egypt have peace with Israel (Israel helps them with security, as well as the Saudis on an unofficial basis). I agree that there are many nuances and factors, and it is not a black and white you are with us or against us type thing. But I don’t necessarily think, for the Americans right now, it’s about foreign policy as much as it is about Biden not wanting to lose the state of Michigan in November, and how this war is having an effect on Arab and Muslim Jew-hating voters in Michigan who now feel empowered with so-called political sway.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I'm sure there are alot of bigots in the Arab and Muslim voting community in the USA, and they may indeed be concentrated in certain constituencies, however tiny their total numbers actually are. Pitched against them - and, anecdotally, we read their comments on your well-written piece - the immensely powerful Israel Lobby (Christian evangelicals for the most part, but Jewish groupings too).
The Islamist problem is largely one created because the USA has been Israel's backer, and Europe has got it in the neck because it is the USA's main ally. Had the USA not been Israel's backer, then it'd be realpolitik as usual between states in the West and those of the Arab world. And there'd be no need for Israeli intel. By the way, the UK is under intense pressure to stop military supplies to Israel at the moment. Next year we will have a Labour government, and the Labour Party is just millimetres away from making a BDS policy against Israel.
Why is Biden saying what he is saying? Because, like the ICJ in The Hague, he thinks Israeli action is very close to being genocide and ethnic cleansing. It's not just a question of international law, but of the consequences to the West of an ally being branded a war criminal. We have a similar problem with Turkey being in NATO. And it hobbles our argument against Russia when we are criticised for having double standards.
Which brings me back to the Realist question: states ask WIIFM? If you take the world as composed of states that have no centralised authority, no ultimate arbiter that stands above states and protects them, then what's in it for them to support Israel?
Right to defend. I’m not buying that. This is the same thing that is happening in Ukraine. Give them enough weapons to defend against aggression but not enough to end the war. Scoring political points seems to be the goal to gaining votes by appeasement. I’m afraid that rule of law and the ability to live in peace is not on the agenda. Instead Power, greed and $$$ seem to be on today’s menu as choice of the day. It also appears that nations like Iran are following the same path as the Moors millennia ago trying to establish world domination. If not Iran, then who next, Russia, China? Rogue leaders need to be held in check by the collective world establishment as a whole. All I see is appeasement and then the cries for help that follow.
Amen.
It’s terrible but you are correct. Biden is waging a senseless, vote collecting exercise! He simply can’t be trusted on anything he says. The west are weaklings and afraid. I agree with you, that Russia are on the sidelines. I’ve said it before, do what you have to do. What it is right and bugger the rest!
Truly, I do think we appear weak. Hamas / Iran - they all know exactly how this works (as described at length in this article), and they know they are "winning." I think Netanyahu has to say what M. Begin said years ago to Biden.
I fear you are correct in your intuition.
Nazism in High Places:
'Threats to Article 5' : BEWARE Nazi Agent-Provocateurs.
Small-scale incursions into Russia by Nazi Terrorist Cells could precipitate a devastating War between the World's Great Powers, The USA and Russia.
We have monitored Neo-Nazi 'Accelerationist' plans here in London by quite highly-placed Nazis who met here to Re-Form The Nazi Party and plan just such a scenario.
These Nazis are known to the Authorities here.
A Nuclear Exchange between superpowers would destroy The Liberal Democracies here in The West, and Russia, to bring in 'The New World Order' for The Nazis and Nazi Germany. This is what is known as Accelerationism, planned as vengeance and payback for the defeat of Hitler last time around.
Our Monitoring continues.
The West has always been partial to the Arabs. Go figure. The current turn can't be a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention.
Why? Is it still oil? Are Jews just that big of a pinta? Are folks jealous of their success at land development? What?
Probably all of the above
I won’t pretend to speak for most European countries where their anti-Israel posturing appears to be the result of some mix of centuries of antisemitic belief and a fear of an excitable Muslim minority. A charitable view would be that, with Russia seemingly getting the upper hand in Ukraine and a necessary demand that the Europeans up their game militarily in support of Ukraine, they don’t need their shipping and oil supplies compromised by conflict in the Middle East - no matter the cause and no matter how otherwise righteous the reaction by Israel … and, of course, no matter how much they secretly support the destruction of Hamas, the humbling of Iran and the potential thereafter for a more stable region. For them, they are back to a time when Israel destroyed the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors: much public negative posturing, while quietly exhaling relief.
I will pretend to understand what is happening with the US, even if it might just be the wishful thinking of a confirmed optimist. First, the US signed on to Israel’s goal of eradicating Hamas and moved two carrier strike forces to the region to warn off Hezbollah and its patron, Iran - Biden’s famous “don’t”. It may have been tactical in the belief that going into Gaza would be a quagmire for Israel at which point the US would graciously step in and dictate a peace, something like Kissinger in the Yom Kippur War - Note to Diane Steiner: the Arabs call that war the Ramadan War, so when the holy month rolls around, this year in March, that sneak attack is probably worth reminding the world about.
It is possible that Israel surprised everyone with its innovative tactics and on the ground success in Gaza, so whatever leverage the US may have hoped for in the quagmire scenario went up in smoke. The Biden Administration has followed a double path for political purposes. Significantly, it has not really interfered with Israel’s campaign, though Congress needs to get on the stick on the funding side. And by keeping the Eisenhower carrier strike force in the region, Hezbollah will remain checkmated, unless and until it unleashes its missiles on Israel in which case the US may or may not stand idly by - it may not wish to take the gamble, which is what deterrence is all about. If it guesses wrong on US intentions and the US intervenes, it goes down and takes whatever is left of Lebanon with it. In any event, that decision is probably Iran’s to make and it’s unlikely that it wishes to lose its proxy on Israel’s north.
As for Iran, there is a school of thought that the JCPOA was a sideshow because President Obama’s actual calculation of the worst case scenario was a US-Iran war, the view was that a nuclear Iran could be contained (though that conviction is not obvious when you are dealing with a chiliastic leadership or one that goes to great lengths to show an interest in advancing the End Times). On the US side of the ledger, Iran’s population is increasingly restless and cannot necessarily be counted on to rally round the Ayatollahs in the event of attack the way the Israelis rallied around the flag after October 7. So, it is unlikely that Iran wants a direct confrontation with the US which would leave the path clear for wiping out, through direct attack or interdiction, the Houthis ability to project lethal force. An Iranian miscalculation might result in its refineries burning, its navy sunk, its drone manufacturing plants blitzed and, perhaps, the entrances to its underground nuclear facilities targeted.
On the domestic political front, the Biden Administration wants to stay out of a shooting war at least until November. After that, who knows. It is balancing what I see as simply opportunistic bullying by Michigan Muslims and assorted Progressive with the national interest. That results in “apologies” of no particular moment, demands for temporary ceasefires that Hamas will never agree to as it requires them to give up the hostages and, notwithstanding all the talk of a path to a State of Palestine, everyone understands that is never happening on the watch of the current Palestinian rulers. Among other things, the price of admission will be the recognition of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people and the surrender of their fictional “right” of return. The “two state for two peoples” obsession seems to exist more in the West than among Sunni Arab states who have come to the conclusion that their future and security rests with a strong Israel. Consequently, the Arabs will accept a “vision thing”, to borrow from HW, where the outlines of a future state of Palestine is concerned.
As best I can predict, Hamas will not surrender (that’s too humiliating and in an honor-shame society, that counts a lot). I think that the reason this conflict has festered for decades is because Israel was never allowed to win. This time, because of the October 7 outrage, it just might be given that opportunity. Israel will move Gazans around (they want to live, after all, even if they hate Jews), enter Rafah and finish off Hamas. With any luck, UNWRA will finally be discredited and its functions divided among other international entities - this will have the further advantage of ending the nonsensical concept of an inherited refugee status and its profoundly Judeophobic educational system. Unfortunately, it is likely that Hamas will kill many of the remaining hostages. Israel will then conduct its investigation, Netanyahu will go into retirement having “saved” the nation and, depending on the timing, maybe brought Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, a broadly centrist coalition will govern Israel and the yelling and Israel’s screaming of a boisterous democratic system will start up again.
Meantime, a coalition of Arab states will oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and Israel, for a time, will see to its demilitarization. The Arabs will select a consortium of clan sheiks to govern (or pretend to as the Arab countries insure that their investments are not wasted by violent actors) and, with any luck, within the remaining decade Gaza will become the Singapore on the Med that will show the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria the real dividends of peace.
I know, I know, Islam’s anti-Jewish elements will have to be repudiated, but Hamas’ loss might go some length toward discrediting the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran and its proxies (as well as Russia and China who would prefer to keep the pot boiling to distract the US) will have to be kept in check. But at least that’s a decent vision of the Day After, so why not aim for that?
Wow, sounds promising! My only comment is that the U.S. returned the aircraft carrier that was supposed to be deterrence to Hezbollah several weeks ago. My feeling is Hezbollah demanded they do so as a prerequisite to “negotiating” a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah (which many now believe will not happen as long as there isn’t a ceasefire in Gaza, go figure).
Unfortunately, our politics in the USA has become one giant conspiracy theory so I can only rely on what Biden told Israel and the world after October 7th.
That was almost five months ago. Things have changed. :(
It may sound promising but I can’t promise anything I wrote will pass.
We still have the 6th fleet in the region and that should be enough to prevent Hezbollah from taking too many risks. The current game is to (finally) bring them into compliance with UNSC resolution 1701 and withdraw beyond the Litani River. I don’t see a face saving way for Hezbollah to retreat to that line, but perhaps Nazrallah will be magnanimous and do it for the good of the Lebanese people (ha!)
If Israel completes Hamas’ destruction, Hezbollah and Iran will interpret that correctly as the consequence of a U.S. green light. They may not want to gamble on Israel being given a second green light in the North. Only time will tell, but it remains a truth in international law that military might is a deciding factor in any outcome.
I want to believe that behind the scenes everything that Biden said to Israel and the world after October 7th, still stands. His posturing in the media and the world stage since is just that. It would be political suicide to abandon it’s one and only true democratic ally in the Middle East.
Maybe, maybe not. What if I told you that the Qataris are funding his reelection campaign with the promise that he won’t let Israel totally take out Hamas in Gaza.
That might sound like a conspiracy theory, but what is not a conspiracy theory is that the Qataris have donated billions of dollars to U.S. universities — much of which was undisclosed. If they can do it at the academic level, what would stop them from doing it at the electoral one? Food for thought.
Qatar couldn’t funnel enough money into Biden’s reelection campaign to make a difference and, in any event, funds need to be reported publicly. I know of no super PAC that is blanketing the airwaves with “save Hamas” items either. And since the most recent Harvard-Harris poll shows 81-10 American support of Israel, tilting to Hamas makes no electoral sense either.
Hamas has boxed itself in. It cannot surrender as it won’t survive the humiliation. It cannot possibly win on the battlefield. The world has not rallied to its side in any meaningful way, and its allies have failed to support it in any way that relieves the pressure the IDF is placing on them. Its negotiating strategy remains the one a victor would used, but, to be fair, that’s been the consistent Palestinian playbook.
Sinwar and Deif probably now have a better understanding of how their idol Hitler felt in his bunker in his final days. The only question is whether they will follow his example, prefer suicide by IDF or allow themselves to be captured and face trial. Only time will tell.
Appreciate your reply, Charles. It’s all speculation at this point. I don’t see much of what you said the same way but I don’t want to get into a debate in a comments thread. Some of it I’ll feature in future essays!
I like the way you think. Could be a movie one day, if we’re not annihilated…
Three points:
1) Where are the resolutions for Hamas’ surrender to save the Palestinians as well as the release of all Israeli hostages?
2) Through out the years and especially during this war, Israel has gained great knowledge on how to deal with Hamas. More importantly, Israel has shared that knowledge with the world to show them what they are dealing with.
3) Israel has to continue what it is doing for Israel’s survival even though Israel’s continued world condemnation…
It's crystal clear: we shouldn't bend over backward trying to heed everyone else's opinions. It's evident that no matter what we do, it'll never be enough for them. The sheer number of clueless individuals out there is staggering. But recent events have underscored a harsh reality: the world has descended into chaos, and our only reliable anchor is ourselves. Am Israel Chai.
1) Exactly.
2) And it seems that we're never rewarded for that. They want our innovation, ingenuity, and creativity but not our national security.
3) Amen.
I've been angry but not surprised at Biden and his ridiculous admin's dance with Israel and Hamas, as well as the absolute craziness of the UN, EU, etc. Interesting how they call it forced displacement when the demands on Israel are to protect the "poor Palestinians." So when the Israel has to move them to a safe corridor, it's forced displacement. Do any of these people realize the delirium they are experiencing when making these absurd announcements. Referring to the Arab and Muslims in the UK, most may be harmless, but it only takes a small group that isn't. Multiply that by small groups in each Western country, and you could have grease fires popping up, turning into conflagrations. And if the war in Gaza does not stop, there could be a possible flare up in Jerusalem, Samaria, and Judea? Well, we all know that there's nothing like a good flare up during their "Holy Month" of Ramadan. With respect to Ramadan, this is what religious people do during their important holidays, right? The politicians know what's going on but are too cowardly to speak out truthfully. Where are the conditions for Russia or the Ukraine? Where's the outcry for all the Ukrainian civilians who have been killed? They all give warnings to Israel. How about the warnings for Hamas? Crickets as usual. Eylon Levy is a great spokesperson for Israel who speaks honestly and courageously, which is sorely lacking with too many global politicians and the various agencies. So if I'm to judge this correctly, Russians bad, Palestinians good? A bizarro world indeed, but a dangerous one for Israel. I will contain my anger and wait for the next episode in this Theatre of the Absurd. As long as Israel is in control of what they have to do, my faith remains firm. Am Yisrael Chai.
Hahaha. Definitely not true re: hate.
I will second Joshua's response: Jews do not hate Christians.