Vanessa, thoughtful analysis. It’s certainly valuable if this war pushes Iran’s capabilities back five or even ten years — that in itself would be an achievement. But strategically, that alone doesn’t change the long-term picture. Unless the ideology of the regime changes, or the leadership itself changes, the threat will simply return. Iran can rebuild. Missiles can be replaced. And with help from China or Russia, it may take far less time than people think.
That’s why I tend to see this ceasefire as more of an intermission than an ending. Perhaps it buys time, but unless something fundamentally shifts inside Iran, we may simply be pausing before the next round.
In theory, that's true. But who is in the wings with the gravitas, military/intelligence experience, vision to (a) get elected (b) take over and do a better job?
Almost by definition, no one will have similar gravitas and military/intelligence experience until they start as PM and spend a couple years in office. But this is always the case when there is a succession problem, whether it is in a country, a company, or any other entity. For those people who do not like Netanyahu or do not agree with his policies, this is an easy call. It is a more difficult question for the center-right voters -- how to ensure that the center-right vision that Likud championed since 1980s remains smart and competitive. (I am more center-left, so it is not up to me to articulate who should lead Likud and how they should be similar to or different from Netanyahu).
I seem to recall that at the end of WWII the British elected leftist Clement Atlee to replace Winston Churchill as PM which led to the establishment of a crappy bloated welfare state that has been dragging the country down ever since.
This is one of the best, concise analyses I have studied in the last 24 hours. Light years ahead of the myriad of talking heads on mainstream outlets.
“internal fragmentation in Washington, D.C. makes American policy less predictable and therefore less reliable as a foundation for Israeli strategy — which means Netanyahu’s most effective counterweight may not be the White House, but the region itself. Quiet and overt partnerships with Arab states, built over years through shared concerns about Iran, offer Israel an alternative axis of strength.”
This is the key which unlocks the door to sustainable strategic dominance in the Middle East. Together with Haviv Gur’s expertise and understanding of the enemy, and realistic, rather than ego driven cognitive dissonance on this war, your thinking gives us both hope and pause in the middle of this immense fog.
It's funny that you mention Lapid. He's a looser, a has been. A person who established a coalition with the Arabs just to jab Netanyahu has brought disaster on Israel, gave away our gas fields to Hezbollah just to earn a few months of quiet. Today he barely has enough support even to make it to the Knesset in the coming elections. He's definitely not match gor Netanyahu.
Let's not prophecise the future.
Meanwhile Netanyahu is the most experienced candidate for the Job.
Vanessa, thoughtful analysis. It’s certainly valuable if this war pushes Iran’s capabilities back five or even ten years — that in itself would be an achievement. But strategically, that alone doesn’t change the long-term picture. Unless the ideology of the regime changes, or the leadership itself changes, the threat will simply return. Iran can rebuild. Missiles can be replaced. And with help from China or Russia, it may take far less time than people think.
That’s why I tend to see this ceasefire as more of an intermission than an ending. Perhaps it buys time, but unless something fundamentally shifts inside Iran, we may simply be pausing before the next round.
No man should rule for more than a decade. It is time for new leaders in Israel.
In theory, that's true. But who is in the wings with the gravitas, military/intelligence experience, vision to (a) get elected (b) take over and do a better job?
Almost by definition, no one will have similar gravitas and military/intelligence experience until they start as PM and spend a couple years in office. But this is always the case when there is a succession problem, whether it is in a country, a company, or any other entity. For those people who do not like Netanyahu or do not agree with his policies, this is an easy call. It is a more difficult question for the center-right voters -- how to ensure that the center-right vision that Likud championed since 1980s remains smart and competitive. (I am more center-left, so it is not up to me to articulate who should lead Likud and how they should be similar to or different from Netanyahu).
I seem to recall that at the end of WWII the British elected leftist Clement Atlee to replace Winston Churchill as PM which led to the establishment of a crappy bloated welfare state that has been dragging the country down ever since.
So who do you replace him with?
Lapid? Gantz? They’re a pair of traitors. Another one of the ‘anyone but Bibi’ idiots?
This is one of the best, concise analyses I have studied in the last 24 hours. Light years ahead of the myriad of talking heads on mainstream outlets.
“internal fragmentation in Washington, D.C. makes American policy less predictable and therefore less reliable as a foundation for Israeli strategy — which means Netanyahu’s most effective counterweight may not be the White House, but the region itself. Quiet and overt partnerships with Arab states, built over years through shared concerns about Iran, offer Israel an alternative axis of strength.”
This is the key which unlocks the door to sustainable strategic dominance in the Middle East. Together with Haviv Gur’s expertise and understanding of the enemy, and realistic, rather than ego driven cognitive dissonance on this war, your thinking gives us both hope and pause in the middle of this immense fog.
It's funny that you mention Lapid. He's a looser, a has been. A person who established a coalition with the Arabs just to jab Netanyahu has brought disaster on Israel, gave away our gas fields to Hezbollah just to earn a few months of quiet. Today he barely has enough support even to make it to the Knesset in the coming elections. He's definitely not match gor Netanyahu.
Let's not prophecise the future.
Meanwhile Netanyahu is the most experienced candidate for the Job.