Vanessa, thoughtful analysis. It’s certainly valuable if this war pushes Iran’s capabilities back five or even ten years — that in itself would be an achievement. But strategically, that alone doesn’t change the long-term picture. Unless the ideology of the regime changes, or the leadership itself changes, the threat will simply return. Iran can rebuild. Missiles can be replaced. And with help from China or Russia, it may take far less time than people think.
That’s why I tend to see this ceasefire as more of an intermission than an ending. Perhaps it buys time, but unless something fundamentally shifts inside Iran, we may simply be pausing before the next round.
In theory, that's true. But who is in the wings with the gravitas, military/intelligence experience, vision to (a) get elected (b) take over and do a better job?
Almost by definition, no one will have similar gravitas and military/intelligence experience until they start as PM and spend a couple years in office. But this is always the case when there is a succession problem, whether it is in a country, a company, or any other entity. For those people who do not like Netanyahu or do not agree with his policies, this is an easy call. It is a more difficult question for the center-right voters -- how to ensure that the center-right vision that Likud championed since 1980s remains smart and competitive. (I am more center-left, so it is not up to me to articulate who should lead Likud and how they should be similar to or different from Netanyahu).
I seem to recall that at the end of WWII the British elected leftist Clement Atlee to replace Winston Churchill as PM which led to the establishment of a crappy bloated welfare state that has been dragging the country down ever since.
Okay, a lot has been destroyed in Iran and nasty leaders have been eliminated. But even more rabid fanatics have probably taken their place, and the knowledge to build a nuclear bomb in due course and to pay for it using the oil reserves remains. The only justification for launching this costly military action would have been regime change. That has not been achieved; on the contrary, Iran is now even more dangerous and the oppression there even more severe. It seems better to me that Netanyahu makes way for someone who is capable of employing more subtle methods alongside brute force to serve Israel's interests. Or wait a minute, was the entire operation actually to serve Netanyahu's interests?
This is one of the best, concise analyses I have studied in the last 24 hours. Light years ahead of the myriad of talking heads on mainstream outlets.
“internal fragmentation in Washington, D.C. makes American policy less predictable and therefore less reliable as a foundation for Israeli strategy — which means Netanyahu’s most effective counterweight may not be the White House, but the region itself. Quiet and overt partnerships with Arab states, built over years through shared concerns about Iran, offer Israel an alternative axis of strength.”
This is the key which unlocks the door to sustainable strategic dominance in the Middle East. Together with Haviv Gur’s expertise and understanding of the enemy, and realistic, rather than ego driven cognitive dissonance on this war, your thinking gives us both hope and pause in the middle of this immense fog.
It's funny that you mention Lapid. He's a looser, a has been. A person who established a coalition with the Arabs just to jab Netanyahu has brought disaster on Israel, gave away our gas fields to Hezbollah just to earn a few months of quiet. Today he barely has enough support even to make it to the Knesset in the coming elections. He's definitely not match gor Netanyahu.
Let's not prophecise the future.
Meanwhile Netanyahu is the most experienced candidate for the Job.
I certainly hope the Israeli people vote Netanyahu out of office, just like I hope America holds Trump responsible for his behavior. Netanyahu may be smart. He may have been the right person for the position years ago. He may have taken advantage of his power to increase his own financial and ego gain. His kids could be in America while IDF support is needed. He may have bent toward the ultra-religious without holding them accountable. If a far-right "religious Jew" can beat and kill a settler, they can certainly serve in the IDF. His "test" should be to step down or, at a minimum, not be reelected. America is now the "bad person," and Israel, I pray, gets to have the truth about its people shine and be the reason for partnerships. This "political" nightmare is turning American Jews away from Israel.....not that we are worthy, we did elect a total bonehead. We need to get rid of tRump. I hope Israelis don't re-elect Netanyahu
The reality is that it is long past time for him to retire but there doesn't seem to be anyone else whether Likud or not that has the wherewithal to handle this situation. Its not like any other prime minister would have avoided 10/7 by taking a harder line. As for the present conflict, I do not believe Trump will fight Iran again or allow Israel to do so. Therefore the war is going to end up a strategic failure which is a crying shame because there was a real opportunity to change the strategic reality of the region. But Trump is simply to erratic and too incapable of coherent expression of thought a s principle to lead this fight to a successful conclusion.
In my mind Netanyahu is THE most consequential Israeli leader since Ben-Gurion. His legal travails remind me of what Trump went through during his first term. Yes, negotiations have their place but when dealing with the Mad Mulahs who firmly believe in taqiyya first, last, and always there is no reason to trust them even if they just said "Good morning."
likely the magician is out of tricks. likely Iran's single priority in talks is to separate American intervention from Israel's. likely the decisive event for the future isnt bibi's post or continued war policy but elections and a new strategic start. and that start should gaze higher and farther than alliance with Saudi, while alliance with puny emirates means nothing. the possibility of large states aligning smaller, Iran, Saudi, Turkiye, can be joined if Great Jerusalem is reunified, citizenship is granted, a path to federal structure is initiated and Hamas is incorporated.
Vanessa, thoughtful analysis. It’s certainly valuable if this war pushes Iran’s capabilities back five or even ten years — that in itself would be an achievement. But strategically, that alone doesn’t change the long-term picture. Unless the ideology of the regime changes, or the leadership itself changes, the threat will simply return. Iran can rebuild. Missiles can be replaced. And with help from China or Russia, it may take far less time than people think.
That’s why I tend to see this ceasefire as more of an intermission than an ending. Perhaps it buys time, but unless something fundamentally shifts inside Iran, we may simply be pausing before the next round.
No man should rule for more than a decade. It is time for new leaders in Israel.
In theory, that's true. But who is in the wings with the gravitas, military/intelligence experience, vision to (a) get elected (b) take over and do a better job?
Almost by definition, no one will have similar gravitas and military/intelligence experience until they start as PM and spend a couple years in office. But this is always the case when there is a succession problem, whether it is in a country, a company, or any other entity. For those people who do not like Netanyahu or do not agree with his policies, this is an easy call. It is a more difficult question for the center-right voters -- how to ensure that the center-right vision that Likud championed since 1980s remains smart and competitive. (I am more center-left, so it is not up to me to articulate who should lead Likud and how they should be similar to or different from Netanyahu).
I seem to recall that at the end of WWII the British elected leftist Clement Atlee to replace Winston Churchill as PM which led to the establishment of a crappy bloated welfare state that has been dragging the country down ever since.
So who do you replace him with?
Lapid? Gantz? They’re a pair of traitors. Another one of the ‘anyone but Bibi’ idiots?
Who? Weak, defeatist leaders? You should be grateful to Bibi.
Okay, a lot has been destroyed in Iran and nasty leaders have been eliminated. But even more rabid fanatics have probably taken their place, and the knowledge to build a nuclear bomb in due course and to pay for it using the oil reserves remains. The only justification for launching this costly military action would have been regime change. That has not been achieved; on the contrary, Iran is now even more dangerous and the oppression there even more severe. It seems better to me that Netanyahu makes way for someone who is capable of employing more subtle methods alongside brute force to serve Israel's interests. Or wait a minute, was the entire operation actually to serve Netanyahu's interests?
This is one of the best, concise analyses I have studied in the last 24 hours. Light years ahead of the myriad of talking heads on mainstream outlets.
“internal fragmentation in Washington, D.C. makes American policy less predictable and therefore less reliable as a foundation for Israeli strategy — which means Netanyahu’s most effective counterweight may not be the White House, but the region itself. Quiet and overt partnerships with Arab states, built over years through shared concerns about Iran, offer Israel an alternative axis of strength.”
This is the key which unlocks the door to sustainable strategic dominance in the Middle East. Together with Haviv Gur’s expertise and understanding of the enemy, and realistic, rather than ego driven cognitive dissonance on this war, your thinking gives us both hope and pause in the middle of this immense fog.
It's funny that you mention Lapid. He's a looser, a has been. A person who established a coalition with the Arabs just to jab Netanyahu has brought disaster on Israel, gave away our gas fields to Hezbollah just to earn a few months of quiet. Today he barely has enough support even to make it to the Knesset in the coming elections. He's definitely not match gor Netanyahu.
Let's not prophecise the future.
Meanwhile Netanyahu is the most experienced candidate for the Job.
I certainly hope the Israeli people vote Netanyahu out of office, just like I hope America holds Trump responsible for his behavior. Netanyahu may be smart. He may have been the right person for the position years ago. He may have taken advantage of his power to increase his own financial and ego gain. His kids could be in America while IDF support is needed. He may have bent toward the ultra-religious without holding them accountable. If a far-right "religious Jew" can beat and kill a settler, they can certainly serve in the IDF. His "test" should be to step down or, at a minimum, not be reelected. America is now the "bad person," and Israel, I pray, gets to have the truth about its people shine and be the reason for partnerships. This "political" nightmare is turning American Jews away from Israel.....not that we are worthy, we did elect a total bonehead. We need to get rid of tRump. I hope Israelis don't re-elect Netanyahu
The reality is that it is long past time for him to retire but there doesn't seem to be anyone else whether Likud or not that has the wherewithal to handle this situation. Its not like any other prime minister would have avoided 10/7 by taking a harder line. As for the present conflict, I do not believe Trump will fight Iran again or allow Israel to do so. Therefore the war is going to end up a strategic failure which is a crying shame because there was a real opportunity to change the strategic reality of the region. But Trump is simply to erratic and too incapable of coherent expression of thought a s principle to lead this fight to a successful conclusion.
Nobody talks about Hamas anymore. They still have their weapons and they seem eerily quiet.
In my mind Netanyahu is THE most consequential Israeli leader since Ben-Gurion. His legal travails remind me of what Trump went through during his first term. Yes, negotiations have their place but when dealing with the Mad Mulahs who firmly believe in taqiyya first, last, and always there is no reason to trust them even if they just said "Good morning."
likely the magician is out of tricks. likely Iran's single priority in talks is to separate American intervention from Israel's. likely the decisive event for the future isnt bibi's post or continued war policy but elections and a new strategic start. and that start should gaze higher and farther than alliance with Saudi, while alliance with puny emirates means nothing. the possibility of large states aligning smaller, Iran, Saudi, Turkiye, can be joined if Great Jerusalem is reunified, citizenship is granted, a path to federal structure is initiated and Hamas is incorporated.