Those watching the ceasefire negotiations and concluding that the conflict is winding down are misreading the situation in ways that carry real analytical consequence.
Zineb, I agree with your article completely. What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve.
Economic warfare, institutional pressure, sanctions, internal instability, and strategic exhaustion are all part of modern conflict. A pause in direct military action does not mean the larger pressure campaign has stopped. In many ways, as your article explains so well, this situation may actually hurt Iran more with each passing day than it hurts the West.
I’ve learned never to assume I understand the full strategic picture too early, especially with Trump involved politically. He often seems to operate several steps ahead of where commentators think the game is. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy, internal cohesion, infrastructure, and financial networks continue deteriorating under enormous pressure.
That is why I think your central point is so important: many people are completely misreading what is actually happening beneath the surface.
This is one of the best analyzes of the conflict behind the conflict that I have read to date. A classic example of a siege strategy not too dissimilar from that of U.S. Grant against Vicksburg. Unfortunately, A siege takes time and Americans are impatient. No need to expose our or Israeli troops and air crews to danger. Squeeze them until they give up. And if they do not make a deal now, they will be left with the final option available. Unconditional surrender.
Thanks for this very informative read. So much to think about. Trump must stay the course, but I worry that political pressure from the midterms may sway his military campaign.
I have read elsewhere that once you remove the IRGC and the Government from Iran's GDP, the private sector is only 15% of the economy. The country is very similar to the USSR and Nazi Germany where the state sectors ran just about everything.
For info on Nazi Germany read "The Vampire Economy" written in 1938 by Communist Party member Gunter Reimann.
In any case it is a system designed with weak points everywhere as the author here points out.
The question for us is of course time. In a sane world, this operation would be fully supported by not only every gulf state, but the entire western alliance and the media. If that were so, the unquestionable message would be that we can sustain this pressure for years. Sadly much of the world mentioned above is a de facto Iranian regime ally and treats Trump and Israel as the enemy. How long can hold out against all these forces of evil and moral confusion? Who knows, but it certainly isn’t years. Maybe not even months.
Zineb, I agree with your article completely. What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve.
Economic warfare, institutional pressure, sanctions, internal instability, and strategic exhaustion are all part of modern conflict. A pause in direct military action does not mean the larger pressure campaign has stopped. In many ways, as your article explains so well, this situation may actually hurt Iran more with each passing day than it hurts the West.
I’ve learned never to assume I understand the full strategic picture too early, especially with Trump involved politically. He often seems to operate several steps ahead of where commentators think the game is. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy, internal cohesion, infrastructure, and financial networks continue deteriorating under enormous pressure.
That is why I think your central point is so important: many people are completely misreading what is actually happening beneath the surface.
FT: you tried to send me a message but I’m not smart enough to figure out how to read it. Sorry. You can email me directly at:
My first name at full name dot com
This is one of the best analyzes of the conflict behind the conflict that I have read to date. A classic example of a siege strategy not too dissimilar from that of U.S. Grant against Vicksburg. Unfortunately, A siege takes time and Americans are impatient. No need to expose our or Israeli troops and air crews to danger. Squeeze them until they give up. And if they do not make a deal now, they will be left with the final option available. Unconditional surrender.
The only aspect we lack in achieving total victory in this war is…………………………….Patience.
Thanks for this very informative read. So much to think about. Trump must stay the course, but I worry that political pressure from the midterms may sway his military campaign.
I have read elsewhere that once you remove the IRGC and the Government from Iran's GDP, the private sector is only 15% of the economy. The country is very similar to the USSR and Nazi Germany where the state sectors ran just about everything.
For info on Nazi Germany read "The Vampire Economy" written in 1938 by Communist Party member Gunter Reimann.
In any case it is a system designed with weak points everywhere as the author here points out.
Great article by the way.
The question for us is of course time. In a sane world, this operation would be fully supported by not only every gulf state, but the entire western alliance and the media. If that were so, the unquestionable message would be that we can sustain this pressure for years. Sadly much of the world mentioned above is a de facto Iranian regime ally and treats Trump and Israel as the enemy. How long can hold out against all these forces of evil and moral confusion? Who knows, but it certainly isn’t years. Maybe not even months.
Zineb: thank you for this brilliant insider's perspective. I've restacked it for my readers as a MUST READ. Gratefully, Gary
The IRGC can save face by showing us it's arse 😂 sorry... Been listening to this song and doing an Irish jig. I think you would like it https://youtu.be/EYAmchSfjAA?si=8PloNs4JH2ToFU3D
👏👏❤️
I enjoyed the video. AI no doubt, but still enjoyable. Would be nice if it was live and real.