Those watching the ceasefire negotiations and concluding that the conflict is winding down are misreading the situation in ways that carry real analytical consequence.
Zineb, I agree with your article completely. What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve.
Economic warfare, institutional pressure, sanctions, internal instability, and strategic exhaustion are all part of modern conflict. A pause in direct military action does not mean the larger pressure campaign has stopped. In many ways, as your article explains so well, this situation may actually hurt Iran more with each passing day than it hurts the West.
I’ve learned never to assume I understand the full strategic picture too early, especially with Trump involved politically. He often seems to operate several steps ahead of where commentators think the game is. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy, internal cohesion, infrastructure, and financial networks continue deteriorating under enormous pressure.
That is why I think your central point is so important: many people are completely misreading what is actually happening beneath the surface.
"What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve".
This is one of the best analyzes of the conflict behind the conflict that I have read to date. A classic example of a siege strategy not too dissimilar from that of U.S. Grant against Vicksburg. Unfortunately, A siege takes time and Americans are impatient. No need to expose our or Israeli troops and air crews to danger. Squeeze them until they give up. And if they do not make a deal now, they will be left with the final option available. Unconditional surrender.
Thanks for this very informative read. So much to think about. Trump must stay the course, but I worry that political pressure from the midterms may sway his military campaign.
No reason to think that Trump is worrying about the mid-term elections. The Supreme Court decision regarding the Voter Rights Act virtually guarantees that the Republicans will increase their majority in the House. Trump must achieve the goal that he set for himself twenty years ago: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
The question for us is of course time. In a sane world, this operation would be fully supported by not only every gulf state, but the entire western alliance and the media. If that were so, the unquestionable message would be that we can sustain this pressure for years. Sadly much of the world mentioned above is a de facto Iranian regime ally and treats Trump and Israel as the enemy. How long can hold out against all these forces of evil and moral confusion? Who knows, but it certainly isn’t years. Maybe not even months.
Trump isn’t running for reelection. Normally the Republicans would get creamed in the midterms with his 40% approval rating, but the Democrats tack to communism and antisemitism will make it close. If he brings down the IRGC regime, it would set the stage for the Middle East to flourish for the first time in centuries. It would reestablish American preeminence, which gives the entire world breathing room to address their issues, and it puts China on notice that we aren’t to be trifled with If Trump wants to be considered a great American President, he has to finish this fight. This is not just another “deal”, this is the next 100 years.
The most significant issue I believe is being ignored is the lack of water in and around Tehran. Israel has the best technology for making sea water potable and also saving and recycling water. Obviously, the lack of potable water in a large urban area such as Tehran can be fatal, both to the political leadership and to the people. This is just another lever that can be used against the current regime to topple the current regime.
I have read elsewhere that once you remove the IRGC and the Government from Iran's GDP, the private sector is only 15% of the economy. The country is very similar to the USSR and Nazi Germany where the state sectors ran just about everything.
For info on Nazi Germany read "The Vampire Economy" written in 1938 by Communist Party member Gunter Reimann.
In any case it is a system designed with weak points everywhere as the author here points out.
Amazing read you’re one of my favorite writers on the subject. Perhaps you can spend more time reviewing the work of Robert Pape And others like him? It’s almost like there are two completely different universes. 99% of the international relations establishment beliefs that America has already lost this war. It baffles me because it’s only been a couple of months regime. Failure and collapse can take a long time, but it is certainly plausible to argue that this war has essentially destroyed the regime, even if it’s still alive. q
Ironic that this banger comes from an Israeli, not an Irishman — because if this concert were held in Ireland supporting Israel, it'd be playing to empty seats. Ireland has one of the most uniformly anti-Israel populations in the Western world, across every party and generation. Their Jewish community has dwindled to a few hundred native members. Israel literally closed its embassy in Dublin. Whether you call it antisemitism or anti-Zionism is debated, but the hostility is real, documented, and deeply rooted.
America is inexorably strangling islamo nazi iran to death. The missle strikes and attacks on shipping are the frantic death throes of a dying savage.
This is a strategy which will sooner or later result in regime change without the necessity of kinetic operations.
If America releases islamo nazi iran from its steel claw death grip and allows it to survive, I will pack a bag and move to the rockies and build a cabin..plant a garden and spent my days drawing birds in the trees..because my hopes for western civilization's survival will die.
I know this sounds callous, but your article suggests an explanation for the IRGC's willingness to kill protesters and the medical professionals who treat them, perhaps eager in order to show that they are tough.
When your economy loses 3 million jobs, and your workforce simultaneously grows by 825,000 people, and only 57,000 new jobs are created - 14.5 people per job - every dead protester is someone who will not enter the labor market.
Zineb, I agree with your article completely. What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve.
Economic warfare, institutional pressure, sanctions, internal instability, and strategic exhaustion are all part of modern conflict. A pause in direct military action does not mean the larger pressure campaign has stopped. In many ways, as your article explains so well, this situation may actually hurt Iran more with each passing day than it hurts the West.
I’ve learned never to assume I understand the full strategic picture too early, especially with Trump involved politically. He often seems to operate several steps ahead of where commentators think the game is. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy, internal cohesion, infrastructure, and financial networks continue deteriorating under enormous pressure.
That is why I think your central point is so important: many people are completely misreading what is actually happening beneath the surface.
It's wishful thinking on their part.
.....................................................................................................
"What amazes me is how many people automatically interpret a ceasefire as meaning the U.S., Israel, or Trump are somehow “losing.” That strikes me as incredibly naïve".
FT: you tried to send me a message but I’m not smart enough to figure out how to read it. Sorry.
Irwin, I just wanted to invite you to subscribe to my free Substack, fredericktatala.substack.com.
This is one of the best analyzes of the conflict behind the conflict that I have read to date. A classic example of a siege strategy not too dissimilar from that of U.S. Grant against Vicksburg. Unfortunately, A siege takes time and Americans are impatient. No need to expose our or Israeli troops and air crews to danger. Squeeze them until they give up. And if they do not make a deal now, they will be left with the final option available. Unconditional surrender.
The only aspect we lack in achieving total victory in this war is…………………………….Patience.
Thanks for this very informative read. So much to think about. Trump must stay the course, but I worry that political pressure from the midterms may sway his military campaign.
No reason to think that Trump is worrying about the mid-term elections. The Supreme Court decision regarding the Voter Rights Act virtually guarantees that the Republicans will increase their majority in the House. Trump must achieve the goal that he set for himself twenty years ago: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
The question for us is of course time. In a sane world, this operation would be fully supported by not only every gulf state, but the entire western alliance and the media. If that were so, the unquestionable message would be that we can sustain this pressure for years. Sadly much of the world mentioned above is a de facto Iranian regime ally and treats Trump and Israel as the enemy. How long can hold out against all these forces of evil and moral confusion? Who knows, but it certainly isn’t years. Maybe not even months.
Sounds like you’re talking about Europe.
Trump isn’t running for reelection. Normally the Republicans would get creamed in the midterms with his 40% approval rating, but the Democrats tack to communism and antisemitism will make it close. If he brings down the IRGC regime, it would set the stage for the Middle East to flourish for the first time in centuries. It would reestablish American preeminence, which gives the entire world breathing room to address their issues, and it puts China on notice that we aren’t to be trifled with If Trump wants to be considered a great American President, he has to finish this fight. This is not just another “deal”, this is the next 100 years.
The most significant issue I believe is being ignored is the lack of water in and around Tehran. Israel has the best technology for making sea water potable and also saving and recycling water. Obviously, the lack of potable water in a large urban area such as Tehran can be fatal, both to the political leadership and to the people. This is just another lever that can be used against the current regime to topple the current regime.
I have read elsewhere that once you remove the IRGC and the Government from Iran's GDP, the private sector is only 15% of the economy. The country is very similar to the USSR and Nazi Germany where the state sectors ran just about everything.
For info on Nazi Germany read "The Vampire Economy" written in 1938 by Communist Party member Gunter Reimann.
In any case it is a system designed with weak points everywhere as the author here points out.
Great article by the way.
Amazing read you’re one of my favorite writers on the subject. Perhaps you can spend more time reviewing the work of Robert Pape And others like him? It’s almost like there are two completely different universes. 99% of the international relations establishment beliefs that America has already lost this war. It baffles me because it’s only been a couple of months regime. Failure and collapse can take a long time, but it is certainly plausible to argue that this war has essentially destroyed the regime, even if it’s still alive. q
The IRGC can save face by showing us it's arse 😂 sorry... Been listening to this song and doing an Irish jig. I think you would like it https://youtu.be/EYAmchSfjAA?si=8PloNs4JH2ToFU3D
👏👏❤️
Ironic that this banger comes from an Israeli, not an Irishman — because if this concert were held in Ireland supporting Israel, it'd be playing to empty seats. Ireland has one of the most uniformly anti-Israel populations in the Western world, across every party and generation. Their Jewish community has dwindled to a few hundred native members. Israel literally closed its embassy in Dublin. Whether you call it antisemitism or anti-Zionism is debated, but the hostility is real, documented, and deeply rooted.
I enjoyed the video. AI no doubt, but still enjoyable. Would be nice if it was live and real.
Zineb: thank you for this brilliant insider's perspective. I've restacked it for my readers as a MUST READ. Gratefully, Gary
Great read .. thank you
America is inexorably strangling islamo nazi iran to death. The missle strikes and attacks on shipping are the frantic death throes of a dying savage.
This is a strategy which will sooner or later result in regime change without the necessity of kinetic operations.
If America releases islamo nazi iran from its steel claw death grip and allows it to survive, I will pack a bag and move to the rockies and build a cabin..plant a garden and spent my days drawing birds in the trees..because my hopes for western civilization's survival will die.
Thank you for this column.
I know this sounds callous, but your article suggests an explanation for the IRGC's willingness to kill protesters and the medical professionals who treat them, perhaps eager in order to show that they are tough.
When your economy loses 3 million jobs, and your workforce simultaneously grows by 825,000 people, and only 57,000 new jobs are created - 14.5 people per job - every dead protester is someone who will not enter the labor market.
Love your articles, they always cut through the gaslighting of mainstream media so perfectly.
An interesting and informative article