Israel's Place in the Looming Shadow of World War Three
Things are getting weird. Israel is aligning with the European Far-Right and its Sunni Arab neighbors. The global political order is shifting — and the Jewish state must tread carefully.
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This is a guest essay written by Nachum Kaplan of Moral Clarity.
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The world is becoming distinctly odd.
Israel is embracing the European Far-Right and befriending its Sunni Arab neighbors. Arab states have been trying to destroy Israel from before it was even created, while the last time Jews and the European Right met was the Holocaust.
It is part of a great global political re-alignment. To make the most of this world in flux, Israel must remember that normative foreign policies are a luxury that small states do not get to enjoy, and certainly not ones with so many enemies. Israel will need to be nimble, transactional, and place its own interests above all else.
Israel’s new friends in Europe and the Middle East are just one of many oddities. Traditional rivals Iran and Russia are working together, as are the Philippines and Japan. Germany and Japan are re-arming seriously for the first time since World War Two, and the West supports this. China and Russia are trying match U.S. hegemony, while China is gaining dominance over Russia and pulling in into its orbit.
It is hard to know where to start an analysis, but two points are useful: the end of the Cold War in 1991, and the start of World War Three, which may or may not yet have happened.
When the Cold War ended, the West had a few decades of self-indulgent gloating. However, authoritarian China has since emerged as America’s pacing threat, while Russia, having failed at democracy, returned to its authoritarian ways and Soviet imperialist ambitions.
Various Jihadist groups, many of which the West backed against the Soviet Union, have ambitions of destroying Israel and imposing a Caliphate in the Middle East and the West (for starters).
Reeling from decades of failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. has lost some of its defense deterrence credibility. The Western liberal world order is crumbling, but it is not clear what will replace it. Amid this uncertainty, loyalties and allegiances are shifting as countries prepare for the next big global war. It is creating some odd bedfellows.
In Europe, governments’ refusal over many years to listen to voter concerns about high immigration levels, specifically from Muslim countries, has created a backlash After the Hamas-led October 7th pogrom in Israel, Islamist mobs across Europe supporting Hamas revealed extent to which Islamists have infiltrated Europe. Many Europeans are rightly spooked about how their societies are changing.
The backlash has begun in the form of the return of Far-Right across much of Europe. While this change is about more than concerns about Islamism, that is an important part of it.
Voters in the Netherlands expressed this fear most clearly when they voted to make anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party the biggest in the Dutch Parliament. No one was more surprised than Wilders himself. It is unlikely he would have done so well had Hamas not attacked Israel. However, the Dutch elections were just weeks after the October 7th attack, which showed voters the danger of Islamism.
The Far-Right’s concern about Islamism gives them common cause with Israel, which is fighting Iran-backed Islamist terror groups and proxies on many fronts. This creates an odd pairing. It was Europe’s Nazi Far-Right, in some cases the predecessors of today’s parties, that conducted the Holocaust.
However, real politics is back. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Israeli Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli visited Hungary in March and noted that it was the safest place in Europe for Jews due to its sensible immigration policy, by which he meant not taking in Muslim immigrants.
Hungary is a country with a dark antisemitic past; its President Viktor Orban has autocratic tendencies, and is close to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
It is unclear to what extent Europe’s Far-Right has detoxified itself from their Nazi and Vichy pasts, but they see befriending Israel as in their interests and as a tool to help them do so. Such parties can point to their support for Israel as proof that they are not the antisemitic parties of Europe 70 years ago.
Famed French Nazi hunter Serge Klarsfeld has even said that Marine Le Pen’s Far-Right National Rally poses less danger to Jews than the Far-Left New Popular Front, which is about to be in a French coalition government.
For Israel, facing increasing diplomatic isolation from its war with Hamas, a racist and corrupt United Nations, and many antisemitic governments globally, working with the European Right gives them a diplomatic fillip in Europe. The more Europe turns Right, the more international support Israel will enjoy. It is a strange world indeed.
While there are risks attached to befriending Far-Right parties and governments, it is right for Israel to do so because they are on the same side in a civilizational struggle between the West and Islamism. At least, the Right are not in denial about this civilizational contest. Israel must offset these risks by being highly transactional in its diplomacy to ensure it is getting rewarded for the risks involved.
Israel is reaping diplomatic dividends. The Netherlands’ Wilders has said, “Israel is fighting for its existence. Against the forces of hate, barbarism and terrorism. No Israeli wants unnecessary civilians to be killed. But Hamas needs to be eliminated. We have to fully support Israel and the Jewish People!”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whom the unimaginative Western media touted as the country’s most Right-wing leader since Benito Mussolini but who has so far governed as a traditional conservative, said “recognition (of a Palestinian state) can’t be requested unilaterally. The precondition is the recognition of the right of existence of the Jewish state and of the right of its citizens to live in peace and security.”
Argentinian President Javier Milei’s office issued a statement saying, “The Argentine Republic recognizes the right of nation-states to defend themselves, and emphatically supports the State of Israel in the defense of its sovereignty, especially against regimes that promote terror and seek the destruction of Western civilization.”
Even Sweden, which in 2014 was the first country to recognize a Palestinian state, now has a more Right-wing government and consequently, a more pro-Israel position. This is partly due to fears about radical Islam, which is a threat in Sweden as seen by the unkempt Jihadist mobs that descended on Malmo earlier this year to protest Israel’s involvement in the European song contest.
Israel must be careful. Many on the Far-Left have entered into an insane alliance with Jihadists in their quest against Israel and the West. What those Leftists cannot see is that the Islamists are using them and will turn on them as soon as it is in their interests to do so. Israel must be sure that Europe’s Far-Right is not playing a similar game.
A challenge is that Far-Right parties are not uniform or intellectually coherent. Argentinian Milei’s Right-wing libertarianism is a long way from Orban’s more authoritarian approach in Hungary.
Holland’s Wilders views are focused quite narrowly on his anti-Islam stance, while France’s Marine Le Penn has a broader platform of euro-skepticism, nationalism, and the usual French dirigisme. In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, which has just won a breakthrough five seats in Parliament, is anti-immigration but in favor of a much smaller state.
Israel, therefore, needs to treat Right-wing governments on a case-by-case basis and not assume they are the same.
It is not only the West that is concerned with Islamism. There has been a notable shift in India, too. Under President Narendra Modi, India has sided with Israel in its war with Hamas, which is a big change for a country that had long been supportive of the Palestinians.
While Modi is a Hindu nationalist whose government and rhetoric is more than tinged with religious bigotry, India has a significant problem with Islamist terror and neighbors fanatical and nuclear-armed Pakistan. India understands the threat.
However, another prism through which to view Israel’s nascent alliance with Europe’s Far-Right is philosophical. Israel has the most Far-Right government in its history and the country’ political landscape — at least with regard to foreign policy and security — has turned sharply Right.
From this perspective, it is less about racism or history, and more about Right-wing governments being natural allies. If this is the case, then it is unclear what would happen if a Left-wing government came to power in Jerusalem.
Equally strange are Israel’s fast-improving relations with its Sunni Arab neighbors. Israel signed peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in 1979 and 1994 respectively, but those were the results of those two countries accepting Israel’s military prowess and, thus, that it was not going anywhere.
The 2020 Abraham Accords (in which Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco) were different. This was about countries not wanting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to hold back their visions of a more modern, prosperous, and stable Middle East.
Saudi Arabia was close to normalizing relations with Israel, too, before the Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th set talks back. Indeed, that was a main reasons for the attack. Iran feared the normalized relations between Israel and the Arab Gulf States — all U.S. allies — would pose a formidable obstacle to its ambitions to control the region.
Plans for Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize ties are still on the agenda; however, Riyadh may be willing to do as part a deal to secure a full defense treaty with the U.S. It seems less a question of if it will happen, than when.
While Sunni Arab countries are still highly supportive of the Palestinians and critical of Israel, they are willing to cooperate with the Jewish state. There was no better example than Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates providing intelligence to help Israel and its allies shoot down the 300 missiles and drones that Iran fire at Israel in April.
This gave a look at what a U.S.-Sunni-Jewish alliance would look like and how it might be able to thwart Iranian, Russian, and Chinese ambitions in the Middle East.
Improving Israeli-Arab relations has several geneses. One is the boomerang effect of Gulf countries exporting extremist Sunni groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS in the 1980s and 1990s. These groups soon wanted to build a Caliphate at the expense of Arab Kingdoms and brought terror directly to Islam’s home in Saudi Arabia. Gulf states, while still Islamic, have done much to crush Islamist extremists, though significant pockets remain.
The extremist threat they face now is mainly the Islamist extremism that Shia Iran is sponsoring, and that is also a big part of what Israel is fighting.
Second is the 1,500-year-old schism between Sunni and Shia Islam, represented by the Gulf states and the Islamic Republic of Iran respectively.
Iran wants its Shia version of Islam to dominate the region, and it wants to destroy Israel. Iran has used proxies and militias to destabilize Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian Territories, in an Islamist colonialist expansion. This makes Iran and its fanatical militia a common enemy in Gulf states and Israel. The stronger Iran becomes, the more threatened are Israel and the Gulf states.
Such a contest gives lie to the notion that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root of Middle East conflict and instability. Sunni-Shia conflict is millennia-old. It will continue no matter whether Israelis and Palestinians find peace.
Thirdly, competing visions are emerging about how the Middle East could and should be. The United Arab Emirates has led the way, turning Dubai into a futuristic global hub, something akin to Singapore in the Middle East. Half a million Israelis have visited Dubai since diplomatic ties were established. The United Arab Emirates imagines a modern Middle East with economies less dependent on oil and gas, and prospering through trade, commerce, technology, tourism, and openness.
Saudi Arabia’s economy is moribund beyond its fabulous oil wealth, but it, too, is on a path to modernization. Its oil reserves are plentiful, but its leaders can envisage a greener future with less demand for crude oil and the kingdom must adapt to that reality.
The Saudis realize this future is much easier to achieve if there is peace with Israel. Big money is at stake, too. Petrodollars investing in and benefitting from Israeli technology has an almost limitless upside.
Then there is the defense angle. Saudi Arabia fears Iran having nuclear weapons and has said that it will develop them too, if Iran does. A desire to avoid nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is part of what drives America’s desire to establish a formal defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, maybe even bringing it under the protection of its nuclear umbrella. That would not be feasible if Saudi Arabia and key U.S. ally Israel do not have normalized relations.
The U.S. is again engaged in great power struggle in the Middle East and wants to get its allies — Sunni Gulf Arab States and Israel — working together as a bulwark against Russian and Iranian interests. Whether formally aligned, or through heightened defense cooperation, Sunni-Jewish objectives are aligning and they make for a powerful regional and (maybe, in time) military block with the U.S.
This is a remarkable departure from the “three No’s” that the Arab League issued after the 1967 Six-Day War (which Israel won outright), when the Arabs present there vowed no negotiation, no peace, and no recognition regarding Israel.
The Jewish state needs to be cautious here, too. While Gulf states are adopting a more modern view towards how they engage with the world, they remain fiercely conservative domestically, with citizens enjoying no rights, and Muslim social norms dominant.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have quietly removed some of the anti-Zionist and antisemitic material from their school syllabuses, but anti-Israel and antisemitic views are baked into the populations. Anti-Israel and anti-Jewish attitudes could be whipped up again easily should things go wrong.
Israel’s new friends are not the only oddity.
Iran and Russia make for a historically unusual alliance. They have a 200-year rivalry, and the Islamic Republic’s clerics loathed the Soviet Union and its godlessness as much as it hated the U.S.
However, Iran needs a powerful backer that can provide it with a full suite of weapons and serve as a veto-wielding ally on the United Nations Security Council. For Russia, Tehran provides an anti-American ally, and they share a mutual dislike of Sunni fundamentalism.
China is also trying to increase its influence in the Middle East, having brokered renewed diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. China is further exerting its influence by exploiting Russia’s isolation from Western sanctions and making Russia increasingly dependent on Chinese trade. China has become the dominant partner in the relationship.
China’s push for global influence is likewise creating odd alliances where countries are fretting over China’s building of a blue water navy, its belligerent threats to take Taiwan by force, and its territorial claims to the South China Sea.
The Philippines and Japan, which are staunch U.S. allies but have a fractious relationship going back to World War Two, have held their first trilateral defense summit to counter China and are conducting joint naval patrols.
Japan is worried enough about China and North Korea to be remilitarizing for the first time since the Second World War. Japan is spending $300 billion through 2027, making it the world’s third-largest defense spender. This has a parallel in Europe where Germany is rearming with a view to it helping the West deter and even fight Russia.
So odd is the world that Asian countries, most of which have terrible histories of Japanese occupation during World War Two, are delighted by Japan’s remilitarization, seeing it as essential.
India, Japan, Australia, and the U.S. have even formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which is positioned to become the Indo-Pacific’s premier security body. India’s involvement is noteworthy, given its fierce foreign policy independence.
History books tell us that World War Two was from 1939 through 1945. However, fighting in Asia was underway well before that. Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931 and was fully at war with China by 1937. If there is a World War Three, which seems probable, historians will argue over when it began.
While it does not feel like World War Three is underway, countries involved in conflict either directly, through alliances, or indirectly via aggressive diplomacy, include Argentina, Austria, Australia, Brazil, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Iran and its proxies (e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis), Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Yemen.
That is quite a list and incomplete. It does not include places such as Sudan, where war with Islamists could be considered part of the overall conflict. One might quibble that some of these countries are not directly involved. That is reasonable, but one can see their involvement as akin to the United States’ oil embargo on Japan, which was a critical factor in the lead-up to hostilities proper in the Second World War.
If World War Three is not underway, then this great political re-alignment that is underway could well be the prelude to it.
All these new alignments are prophesied. Mostly in Isaiah, Joel, Daniel, and the minor prophets. And Revelation!
A fascinating account of the relationship between all of these countries and Israel. I agree that Israel must tread very carefully because in this game of chess, no one can be trusted.